Try the model
HAW

Hawai'i 10 at Utah State 55

USU
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Maverik Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreHAW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:02 · Lucas Borrow punt for 45 yds , Kahanu Davis returns for no gain to the USU 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Home team on offense+3.3Pregame prior−11.4Score differential+1.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 5:28: Tanner Cragun 32 Yd Field Goal — USU win probability +0.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:06: Will Monney 16 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Tanner Cragun Kick) — USU win probability +3.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:54: Josh Sterzer 2 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Cragun Kick) — USU win probability +9.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:38: Rahsul Faison 37 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick) — USU win probability +3.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:42: Dekel Crowdus 44 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick) — USU win probability +1.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8HAW made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:16HAW 4th & 9 at HAW 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:05USU 4th & 6 at HAW 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    48.1%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:14HAW 4th & 2 at HAW 10, down 7
    Close callPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:28USU 4th & 9 at HAW 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:02HAW 4th & 11 at HAW 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:37USU 4th & 1 at HAW 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.5%−2.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−9.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:35HAW 4th & 22 at USU 22, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−2.9
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−6.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:15USU 4th & 1 at USU 43, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:24HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:47USU 4th & 8 at USU 47, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:12HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.7%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:01HAW 4th & 24 at HAW 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−3.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:36HAW 4th & 13 at HAW 34, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−2.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:19HAW 4th & 12 at HAW 23, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:29USU 4th & 5 at USU 38, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:01USU 4th & 5 at HAW 36, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:13USU 4th & 20 at HAW 20, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:27USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:54USU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 1:2536% → 38%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
36.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 5 yds to the USU 34Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+4
36.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Otto Tia for 4 yds to the USU 38Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
36.6%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the USU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
36.7%
pass incomplete to Will MonneySimilar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+18
36.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Will Monney for 18 yds to the HAW 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
37.5%
Otto Tia 41 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Tanner Cragun Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1163% → 62%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 5 yds to the HAW 30Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
37.7%
Tylan Hines run for 1 yd to the HAW 31Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
38.1%
pass incomplete to Nick CenacleSimilar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
38.3%
Hawai'i Penalty, delay of game (Lucas Borrow) to the HAW 26Similar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+3
38.4%
Lucas Borrow punt for 39 yds , Kahanu Davis returns for 3 yds to the USU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0039% → 40%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
38.6%
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the USU 39Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+15
38.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Kyrese White for 15 yds to the HAW 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
39.3%
Utah State Penalty, personal foul (Aloali'i Maui) to the USU 49Similar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 15
OWN 49
-1
39.1%
Spencer Petras run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 48Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 16
OWN 48
+10
39.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 10 yds to the HAW 42Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
40.2%
pass incomplete to Grant PageSimilar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
40.0%
Ryan Marks punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4560% → 58%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
39.9%
Landon Sims run for 2 yds to the HAW 4Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+4
40.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 4 yds to the HAW 8Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+2
41.2%
Brayden Schager run for 2 yds to the HAW 10Similar
Q1 8:14
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
41.8%
Lucas Borrow punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:4142% → 44%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
42.1%
Herschel Turner run for 13 yds to the HAW 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
42.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Otto Tia for 5 yds to the HAW 35Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+19
42.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Will Monney for 19 yds to the HAW 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
43.1%
pass incomplete to Jack HesteraSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-4
43.1%
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 4 yards to the HAW 20Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 14
OPP 20
+5
43.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Otto Tia for 5 yds to the HAW 15Similar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+32
44.0%
Tanner Cragun 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2654% → 52%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
46.3%
Tylan Hines run for 1 yd to the HAW 26Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
47.0%
Brayden Schager sacked by William Holmes for a loss of 2 yards to the HAW 24Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
48.0%
pass incomplete to Landon SimsSimilar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
48.3%
Lucas Borrow punt for 45 yds , Kahanu Davis returns for no gain to the USU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:3650% → 51%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
50.3%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Josh Sterzer, broken up by Wynden Ho'ohuliSimilar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
50.3%
Spencer Petras sacked by Malachi Finau for a loss of 2 yards to the USU 29Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
50.5%
Spencer Petras pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8INT
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:3652% → 51%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
48.5%
Tylan Hines run for a loss of 6 yards to the USU 30 Tylan Hines fumbled, recovered by HAW Brayden SchagerSimilar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 16
OPP 30
0
48.8%
Brayden Schager pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:2053% → 58%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
52.9%
Rahsul Faison run for 6 yds to the USU 45Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
53.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the USU 47Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+22
53.4%
Rahsul Faison run for 22 yds to the HAW 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
54.5%
Rahsul Faison run for 15 yds to the HAW 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
58.0%
Will Monney 16 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Tanner Cragun Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10INT
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:4545% → 43%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
55.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Alex Perry for 7 yds to the HAW 32Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+40
55.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 40 yds to the USU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
55.9%
Hawai'i Penalty, false start (James Milovale) to the USU 33Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+4
56.9%
Brayden Schager run for 4 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
56.8%
Brayden Schager pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11TD
15 plays · 95 yds · 5:2160% → 79%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+14
59.9%
Rahsul Faison run for 14 yds to the USU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+23
61.2%
Rahsul Faison run for 23 yds to the USU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
62.8%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the USU 44Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+15
63.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jack Hestera for 15 yds to the HAW 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
64.2%
Rahsul Faison run for 6 yds to the HAW 35Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
65.2%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Jack Hestera, broken up by Elijah PalmerSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+5
64.9%
Herschel Turner run for 5 yds to the HAW 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
66.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Will Monney for 2 yds to the HAW 28Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
66.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Otto Tia for 7 yds to the HAW 21Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
66.4%
Bryson Barnes run for no gain to the HAW 21Similar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+3
66.3%
Bryson Barnes run for 3 yds to the HAW 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
68.5%
Rahsul Faison run for a loss of 2 yards to the HAW 20Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+6
69.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Otto Tia for 6 yds to the HAW 14Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+12
69.3%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Otto Tia, broken up by Caleb Brown for a 1ST down Hawai'i Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Caleb Brown) to the HAW 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.7%
Josh Sterzer 2 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Cragun Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 5:1924% → 18%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.8%
Cam Barfield run for 4 yds to the HAW 29Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
75.8%
Brayden Schager run for no gain to the HAW 29Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
76.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 12 yds to the HAW 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
76.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 12 yds to the USU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
76.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 8 yds to the USU 39Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+17
76.3%
Landon Sims run for 17 yds to the USU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
76.2%
Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Nick Cenacle, broken up by Jaiden FrancoisSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+18
76.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 18 yds to the USU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
77.5%
Brayden Schager sacked by Bo Maile and Lawrence Falatea for a loss of 10 yards to the USU 14Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
79.3%
Brayden Schager run for 2 yds to the USU 12Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
80.6%
Hawai'i Penalty, personal foul (Ethan Spencer) to the USU 17Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
-5
81.1%
Brayden Schager sacked by Cian Slone for a loss of 5 yards to the USU 22Similar
Q2 3:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 22
+40
81.9%
Kansei Matsuzawa 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0974% → 75%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
73.6%
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the USU 22Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
73.7%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Kyrese White, broken up by Elijah PalmerSimilar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+12
73.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Colby Bowman for 12 yds to the USU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
74.6%
Herschel Turner run for 4 yds to the USU 38Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
75.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 5 yds to the USU 43Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
75.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Grant Page for no gain to the USU 43Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
75.0%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:3423% → 23%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
76.7%
Landon Sims run for 4 yds to the HAW 13Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+5
76.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for 5 yds to the HAW 18Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+6
77.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 6 yds to the HAW 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
76.8%
Brayden Schager pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.8%
Spencer Petras pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
75.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 7 yds to the USU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3623% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.4%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.9%
Landon Sims run for 4 yds to the HAW 29Similar
Q3 14:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
77.8%
pass incomplete Hawai'i Penalty, Offensive holding (Elijah Robinson) to the HAW 29Similar
Q3 14:24
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+11
78.6%
Lucas Borrow punt for 37 yds , Kahanu Davis returns for 11 yds to the USU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:2783% → 82%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
83.3%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the USU 47Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
83.6%
pass incomplete to Kyrese WhiteSimilar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
82.5%
pass incomplete to Grant PageSimilar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
81.7%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:3821% → 15%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
78.7%
Christian Vaughn run for 2 yds to the HAW 19Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+4
79.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 4 yds to the HAW 23Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+3
80.1%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 3 yds to the HAW 26Similar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+7
80.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 7 yds to the HAW 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
80.1%
John-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 18 yds to the USU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
79.3%
Landon Sims run for no gain to the USU 49Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
80.4%
pass incomplete to Spencer CurtisSimilar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-9
81.1%
John-Keawe Sagapolutele sacked by Bronson Olevao Jr. and William Holmes for a loss of 9 yards to the HAW 42Similar
Q3 10:01
4TH & 19
OWN 42
-5
85.2%
Hawai'i Penalty, delay of game (Lucas Borrow) to the HAW 37Similar
Q3 10:01
4TH & 24
OWN 37
+44
85.2%
Lucas Borrow punt for 44 yds , Kahanu Davis returns for 44 yds to the HAW 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20TD
1 play · 37 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
88.5%
Rahsul Faison 37 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 21INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:4815% → 14%
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
85.3%
Micah Alejado run for 6 yds to the HAW 27Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+11
84.9%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for 11 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
85.2%
Cam Barfield run for 14 yds to the USU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
85.1%
Micah Alejado run for 2 yds to the USU 46Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
85.8%
John-Keawe Sagapolutele pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:1390% → 91%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
89.5%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Otto Tia for a 1ST down Hawai'i Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Caleb Brown) to the USU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
90.0%
Rahsul Faison run for 1 yd to the USU 40Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+18
90.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 18 yds to the HAW 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
90.7%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Otto Tia, broken up by Meki Pei Hawai'i Penalty, off-side (Elijah Robinson) to the HAW 37Similar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 5
OPP 37
+37
90.8%
Rahsul Faison 37 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:4012% → 9%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.0%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 5 yds to the HAW 30Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
88.0%
Micah Alejado run for 3 yds to the HAW 33Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
88.5%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 4 yds to the HAW 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
89.2%
Micah Alejado sacked by Gabriel Iniguez Jr. and Cian Slone for a loss of 4 yards to the HAW 33Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+1
90.0%
Landon Sims run for 1 yd to the HAW 34Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
90.5%
pass incomplete to Alex PerrySimilar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 13
OWN 34
0
90.6%
Lucas Borrow punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:3292% → 94%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
92.1%
Rahsul Faison run for 8 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+20
92.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 20 yds to the USU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
92.8%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the HAW 48Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
93.0%
Rahsul Faison run for 3 yds to the HAW 45Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+32
93.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jack Hestera for 32 yds to the HAW 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
93.8%
Spencer Petras run for 8 yds to the HAW 5 for a 1ST down Hawai'i Penalty, personal foul (Malachi Finau) to the HAW 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.1%
Josh Sterzer 2 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Cragun Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:388% → 6%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
92.2%
Micah Alejado sacked by Bronson Olevao Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the HAW 18Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-4
93.0%
Micah Alejado sacked by Seni Tuiaki for a loss of 4 yards to the HAW 14Similar
Q4 14:59
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+9
93.2%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Tylan Hines for 9 yds to the HAW 23Similar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
93.6%
Lucas Borrow punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4295% → 96%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
95.4%
Rahsul Faison run for 4 yds to the USU 37Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
95.7%
Rahsul Faison run for 4 yds to the USU 41Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 2
OWN 41
-3
96.0%
Spencer Petras sacked by Nalu Emerson for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 38Similar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
95.8%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 27INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:065% → 4%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
94.8%
Hawai'i Penalty, false start (Cam Barfield) to the HAW 10Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+9
94.8%
John-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 9 yds to the HAW 19Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+1
95.3%
Cam Barfield run for 1 yd to the HAW 20Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
95.6%
John-Keawe Sagapolutele pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:3297% → 97%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
96.6%
Derrick Jameson run for a loss of 2 yards to the HAW 43Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+6
96.7%
Derrick Jameson run for 6 yds to the HAW 37Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-10
96.7%
Derrick Jameson run for no gain to the HAW 37 Utah State Penalty, Offensive holding (Trey Andersen) to the HAW 47Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 16
OPP 47
+11
96.8%
Bryson Barnes run for 11 yds to the HAW 36Similar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+15
96.8%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Nalu Emerson for 0 yards to the HAW 36 for a 1ST down Hawai'i Penalty, personal foul (Justin Sinclair) to the HAW 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
97.2%
Derrick Jameson 21 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 29TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:534% → 3%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.2%
Hawai'i Penalty, delay of game (Micah Alejado) to the HAW 20Similar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
96.3%
Micah Alejado run for 5 yds to the HAW 25Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Blaze Kamoku for 6 yds to the HAW 31Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
96.3%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 13 yds to the HAW 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
96.4%
Micah Alejado run for 7 yds to the USU 49Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+5
96.4%
Micah Alejado pass complete to Blaze Kamoku for 5 yds to the USU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
97.4%
Dekel Crowdus 44 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 30TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2998% → 99%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.9%
Nick Floyd run for 5 yds to the USU 30Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
98.2%
Nick Floyd run for 6 yds to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
98.3%
Bryson Barnes run for 4 yds to the USU 40Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+53
98.4%
Nick Floyd run for 53 yds to the HAW 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.7%
Nick Floyd run for no gain to the HAW 7Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
98.8%
Bryson Barnes run for no gain Utah State Penalty, illegal block (George Maile) to the HAW 7Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
0
98.7%
Nick Floyd run for no gain to the HAW 22Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
+2
98.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 2 yds to the HAW 20Similar
Q4 1:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+37
98.8%
Tanner Cragun 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 31Uncategorized
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:392% → 2%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.3%
David Cordero run for 6 yds to the HAW 31Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
98.2%
Christian Vaughn run for 6 yds to the HAW 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:54
Josh Sterzer 2 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Cragun Kick)
+9.3
TD · Q1 1:06
Will Monney 16 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Tanner Cragun Kick)
+3.5
TD · Q3 9:38
Rahsul Faison 37 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick)
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com