2024 · Week 1 · Aug 24, 2024 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreDSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:39 · Lucas Borrow punt for 38 yds , Kristian Tate returns for 2 yds to the DSU 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:12: Marqui Adams run for 10 yds for a TD (Nathan Wilson KICK) — DSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: DSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:10: Jaden Sutton run for 6 yds for a TD (Nathan Wilson KICK) — DSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: DSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 11:07: Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 13 yds to the HAW 46 for a 1ST down — HAW win probability +3.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:42: Brayden Schager run for 15 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK) — HAW win probability +5.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:40: Brayden Schager pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for 29 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK) — HAW win probability +3.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 5 of 8DSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
- Q1 14:16HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 40, tiedClose callPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:05DSU 4th & 11 at DSU 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q1 7:34DSU 4th & 17 at DSU 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q1 6:48HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 38, up 7Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snapGo for it97.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:36DSU 4th & 2 at DSU 29, down 7Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:50HAW 4th & 7 at DSU 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.2%average punt
- Q1 0:10DSU 4th & 7 at DSU 4, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q2 13:57DSU 4th & 14 at DSU 21, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q2 12:43HAW 4th & 13 at HAW 14, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.3%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.5%average punt
- Q2 9:31DSU 4th & 2 at HAW 49, down 14Close callPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it3.0%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:39HAW 4th & 5 at HAW 38, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.8%average punt
- Q2 5:01DSU 4th & 10 at DSU 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q2 2:00HAW 4th & 14 at HAW 42, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.3%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.5%average punt
- Q3 6:07DSU 4th & 10 at DSU 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snapGo for it7.8%−0.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q3 4:20HAW 4th & 10 at DSU 42, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snapGo for it91.7%−0.130% to convertField goal91.3%−0.430% to makePuntTheir call91.7%average punt
- Q3 0:45DSU 4th & 8 at DSU 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snapGo for it8.9%−0.933% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.8%average punt
- Q4 10:55DSU 4th & 7 at DSU 40, down 14Close callPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.2%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 9:34HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 20, up 14Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.8%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 7:08DSU 4th & 10 at DSU 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q4 1:59DSU 4th & 11 at DSU 21, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 3 of 4DSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:35HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:12DSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.3%97% to makeGo for two5.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:10DSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.2%97% to makeGo for two11.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:42HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.2%97% to makeGo for two91.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:40HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.7%97% to makeGo for two95.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:44HAW Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAWDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3699% → 99%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
98.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for 9 yds to the HAW 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 3:002% → 2%
HAWDrive 3TD4 plays · 61 yds · 1:2498% → 98%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
98.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 16 yds to the DSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
98.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Alex Perry for 5 yds to the DSU 11Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+11
98.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 11 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:592% → 2%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
98.2%
Delaware State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (NyGhee Lolley) to the DSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3698% → 98%
Q1 6:48
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+9
97.9%
Lucas Borrow punt for 50 yds , Kristian Tate returns for 9 yds to the DSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:592% → 2%
Q1 5:19
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+7
97.8%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Jayden Jenkins for 7 yds to the DSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 2:3298% → 97%
Q1 4:11
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+11
97.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for 11 yds to the HAW 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 8PUNT RETURN TD6 plays · 3 yds · 1:323% → 2%
Q1 1:04
2ND & 3
OWN 8
-4
97.2%
(01:04) SUTTON, Jaden rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the DSU12 (JONES, Tariq), clock 01:02. PENALTY DSU Holding on COOK, Isaiah enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the DSU8 to the DSU4 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+44
97.7%
Nathan Wilson punt for 40 yds , Tylan Hines returns for 44 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:122% → 3%
Q2 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-4
97.6%
Marqui Adams sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the DSU 21 Marqui Adams fumbled, recovered by DSU Marqui Adams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1098% → 97%
Q2 13:42
3RD & 10
OWN 17
-16
97.6%
(13:42) SCHAGER, Brayden pass deep up the middle complete for 16 yards to CURTIS, Spencer caught at the HAW33 and advanced to the HAW33, End of Play, clock 13:35. PENALTY HAW Holding on DECAMBRA, Ka'ena enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the HAW17 to the HAW9 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 3:053% → 3%
Q2 11:10
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-5
97.0%
Delaware State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Charles Brown Jr.) to the DSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4097% → 97%
DSUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:353% → 3%
Q2 5:54
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-1
96.7%
Marqui Adams sacked by Jamar Sekona for a loss of 1 yard to the DSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 2:5497% → 97%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
96.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 2 yds to the HAW 37Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
96.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 9 yds to the HAW 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 6
50
-8
96.9%
Brayden Schager sacked by Brian Bates for a loss of 8 yards to the HAW 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 15TD10 plays · 77 yds · 1:414% → 7%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
96.3%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Jaden Sutton for 17 yds to the DSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
96.1%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Kyree Benton for 5 yds to the DSU 45Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+12
96.1%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Kristian Tate for 12 yds to the HAW 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+17
95.5%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Jaden Sutton for 17 yds to the HAW 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
95.5%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Jaden Sutton for 9 yds to the HAW 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
94.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SCHAGER, Brayden at HAW29 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 17TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:496% → 15%
Q3 12:46
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
92.7%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Jordan Hull for 6 yds to the HAW 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
92.4%
Delaware State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kyree Benton) to the HAW 48Similar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 9
OPP 48
+42
92.2%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Ryan Lee for 42 yds to the HAW 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18TD8 plays · 67 yds · 3:2589% → 94%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
88.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 13 yds to the HAW 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
89.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 19 yds to the DSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
88.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 10 yds to the DSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:358% → 8%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
91.8%
Marqui Adams sacked by Jamih Otis for a loss of 2 yards to the DSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 1:3694% → 92%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
93.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 13 yds to the DSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 3:269% → 9%
Q3 3:04
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+9
90.8%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Jayden Jenkins for 9 yds to the DSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
90.2%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Jordan Hull for 7 yds to the DSU 31Similar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
91.0%
Nathan Wilson punt for 19 yds , Tylan Hines returns for no gain to the DSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22TD5 plays · 45 yds · 2:0594% → 97%
Q3 0:45
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
93.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 4 yds to the DSU 36Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
93.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 6 yds to the DSU 29Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+29
97.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for 29 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 2:414% → 5%
Q4 13:36
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+15
95.9%
Hawai'i Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jamar Sekona) to the DSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
95.5%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Kyree Benton for a loss of 3 yards to the DSU 34Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 13
OWN 34
-10
95.8%
ADAMS, Marqui pass up the middle complete for 8 yards to HULL, Jordan caught at the DSU42 and advanced to the DSU42 (SINCLAIR, Justin). PENALTY DSU Holding on JOHNSON, Jestus enforced 10 yards from the DSU34 to the DSU24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 23
OWN 24
+16
95.9%
Marqui Adams pass complete to NyGhee Lolley for 16 yds to the DSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2197% → 97%
DSUDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 2:165% → 4%
HAWDrive 26TD7 plays · 51 yds · 3:1798% → 99%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
97.5%
SCHAGER, Brayden pass deep to the left incomplete intended for CROWDUS, Dekel thrown to the DSU10. PENALTY DSU Roughing the Passer on BRUNSON, Marquise enforced 15 yards from the HAW49 to the DSU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+8
97.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 8 yds to the DSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-10
97.8%
HINES, Tylan rush to the left for a gain of 12 yards to the DSU8 (GOINGS, Maurio), clock 04:47. PENALTY HAW Illegal Block in the Back on PEIHOPA, Kuao enforced 10 yards from the DSU20 to the DSU30 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 17
OPP 30
+29
97.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 29 yds to the DSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 1:321% → 1%
Q4 2:34
3RD & 1
OWN 31
-10
99.5%
C.J. Henry sacked by Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina for a loss of 10 yards to the DSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER4 plays · 10 yds · 0:55100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:10
Jaden Sutton run for 6 yds for a TD (Nathan Wilson KICK)
-7.4
TD · Q3 7:42
Brayden Schager run for 15 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
+5.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 11:07
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 13 yds to the HAW 46 for a 1ST down
+3.9