2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadUNI aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreUNI score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:08 · (00:08) [NH] Kneel down by SAGAPOLUTELE, John-Keawe at HAWAII47 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:40: Pofele Ashlock 6 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Landon Sims Pass to Hunter Higham for Two-Point Conversion) — HAW win probability +3.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:10: Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 20 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK) — HAW win probability +7.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:02: Aidan Dunne run for 3 yds for a TD (Caden Palmer KICK) — UNI win probability +7.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UNI has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 4:00: Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 13 yds to the HAW 48 for a 1ST down — HAW win probability +3.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:21: Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 1 yd for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK) — HAW win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UNI made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 4:12UNI 4th & 9 at UNI 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snapGo for it23.0%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.2%average punt
- Q2 12:50UNI 4th & 20 at UNI 28, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snapGo for it19.3%−1.69% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.9%average punt
- Q2 1:12UNI 4th & 10 at UNI 31, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snapGo for it12.7%−0.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.6%average punt
- Q3 10:58HAW 4th & 10 at HAW 49, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snapGo for it87.8%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.5%average punt
- Q3 9:14UNI 4th & 9 at UNI 17, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snapGo for it10.7%−1.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.8%average punt
- Q4 4:50UNI 4th & 12 at UNI 42, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UNI made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:53HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.2%97% to makeGo for two76.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:40HAW Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick80.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call80.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:10HAW Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.7%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:02UNI Touchdown, down 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.1%97% to makeGo for two13.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:21HAW Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:58HAW Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNIDrive 1FUMBLE8 plays · 44 yds · 4:0218% → 20%
Q1 14:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
81.5%
(14:16) QB Keeper DUNNE, Aidan rush to the right for a loss of 2 yards to the UNI26, out of bounds, clock 14:06. PENALTY HAWAII Personal Foul on SMITH, Jalen enforced 15 yards from the UNI28 to the UNI43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+4
81.1%
Aidan Dunne pass complete to Desmond Hutson for 4 yds to the HAW 49Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+18
80.8%
Aidan Dunne pass complete to Sergio Morancy for 18 yds to the HAW 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
80.6%
Aidan Dunne sacked by Jamih Otis for a loss of 6 yards to the HAW 37Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+6
80.4%
Amauri Pesek-Hickson run for 6 yds to the HAW 31 Amauri Pesek-Hickson fumbled, recovered by HAW Jamih Otis J. Otis return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:4581% → 82%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 9
OWN 31
+13
80.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 13 yds to the HAW 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+3
80.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 3 yds to the UNI 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
80.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 5 yds to the UNI 40Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+16
80.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 16 yds to the UNI 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
81.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 24 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 3:4119% → 19%
Q1 7:16
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
81.4%
Aidan Dunne pass complete to Sergio Morancy for 15 yds to the UNI 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
81.1%
(06:47) DUNNE, Aidan pass short to the right complete for 2 yards to ROQUE JR., JC caught at the UNI40 and advanced to the UNI40 (STONE, Cameron), clock 06:28. PENALTY UNI Pass Interference on PRYOR, Layne enforced 15 yards to the UNI23 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+14
81.3%
Aidan Dunne pass complete to JC Roque Jr. for 14 yds to the UNI 37Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+1
81.2%
Aidan Dunne pass complete to Desmond Hutson for 1 yd to the UNI 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2981% → 85%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 1 yd to the HAW 26Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
81.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 6 yds to the HAW 32Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
81.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 7 yds to the HAW 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+59
81.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for 59 yds to the UNI 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
84.9%
Pofele Ashlock 6 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Landon Sims Pass to Hunter Higham for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 3 yds · 2:5018% → 17%
Q2 14:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.5%
Aidan Dunne pass complete to Jaiden Ellis-Lahey for 5 yds to the UNI 30Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
82.0%
Aidan Dunne pass complete to Desmond Hutson for 8 yds to the UNI 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
82.0%
(13:54) DUNNE, Aidan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MORANCY, Sergio thrown to the HAWAII23, clock 13:48. PENALTY UNI Pass Interference on MORANCY, Sergio enforced 15 yards to the UNI23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6TD7 plays · 80 yds · 3:3485% → 93%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
84.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 14 yds to the HAW 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
84.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Alex Perry for 15 yds to the HAW 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+17
85.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 17 yds to the UNI 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
86.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 7 yds to the UNI 20Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+20
93.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 20 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 7TD10 plays · 72 yds · 5:019% → 16%
Q2 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
91.9%
Aidan Dunne pass complete to Tysen Kershaw for 5 yds to the UNI 33Similar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
91.9%
Amauri Pesek-Hickson run for 12 yds to the HAW 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+26
91.8%
Aidan Dunne pass complete to Derek Anderson for 26 yds to the HAW 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+15
91.9%
(04:55) DUNNE, Aidan pass to the left incomplete intended for PRYOR, Layne thrown to the HAWAII5, clock 04:50. PENALTY HAWAII Pass Interference on MANUMA, Peter enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the HAWAII5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8INT6 plays · 26 yds · 2:0288% → 89%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
88.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 13 yds to the HAW 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+3
89.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 3 yds to the UNI 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
89.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 2 yds to the UNI 39Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 8
OPP 39
-30
89.3%
Brayden Schager pass intercepted Robbie Peterson Jr. return for 30 yds to the UNI 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3314% → 12%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
86.5%
Aidan Dunne pass complete to Amauri Pesek-Hickson for no gain to the UNI 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10INT7 plays · 52 yds · 0:4490% → 89%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+23
89.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 23 yds to the HAW 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
89.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 5 yds to the HAW 40Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+25
89.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Karsyn Pupunu for 25 yds to the UNI 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
89.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for a loss of 1 yard to the UNI 36Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 11
OPP 36
-14
88.7%
Brayden Schager pass intercepted Tucker Langenberg return for 14 yds to the UNI 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0514% → 14%
HAWDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 3:3889% → 90%
Q3 13:41
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+8
88.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for 8 yds to the HAW 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-4
90.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for a loss of 4 yards to the HAW 49Similar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
89.6%
Lucas Borrow punt for 35 yds, fair catch by JC Roque Jr. at the UNI 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3511% → 10%
Q3 10:11
2ND & 11
OWN 15
-5
89.4%
Northern Iowa Penalty, False Start (Tysen Kershaw) to the UNI 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14TD12 plays · 78 yds · 5:4891% → 98%
Q3 8:06
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+6
91.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 6 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+10
92.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 10 yds to the UNI 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
94.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 8 yds to the UNI 10Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+9
94.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 9 yds to the UNI 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 1 yd for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 15FUMBLE12 plays · 52 yds · 5:573% → 2%
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+14
97.8%
Matthew Schecklman pass complete to Desmond Hutson for 14 yds to the UNI 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
98.5%
Matthew Schecklman pass complete to Layne Pryor for no gain Layne Pryor fumbled, recovered by HAW Deliyon Freeman D. Freeman return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16TD11 plays · 74 yds · 5:0699% → 100%
Q4 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
99.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 7 yds to the HAW 33Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+4
99.1%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 4 yds to the HAW 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 5 yds to the UNI 48Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+5
99.3%
Northern Iowa Penalty, Offsides (Cannon Butler) to the UNI 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
99.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 17 yds to the UNI 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
99.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for 16 yds to the UNI 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
99.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 4 yds to the UNI 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNIDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+15
99.9%
Hawai'i Penalty, Personal Foul (Ezra Evaimalo) to the UNI 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-6
99.9%
Matthew Schecklman sacked by Jackie Johnson III for a loss of 6 yards to the UNI 38Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+4
99.9%
Matthew Schecklman pass complete to Brady McCullough for 4 yds to the UNI 42Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Noah Pettinger punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tylan Hines at the HAW 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 18END OF GAME11 plays · 26 yds · 4:38100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:02
Aidan Dunne run for 3 yds for a TD (Caden Palmer KICK)
-7.6
TD · Q2 9:10
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 20 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
+7.3
TD · Q3 3:21
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 1 yd for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
+4