San José State

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1243rd
  Defense+0.0382nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.9%59th
  Defense40.8%58th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2860th
  Defense+1.2265th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.132nd
  Defense−0.0180th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2677th
  Defense+0.0775th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.5%51st
  Defense46.9%56th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense33.6%67th
  Defense28.9%70th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.271st
  Defense2.7183rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense27.1%1st
  Defense20.5%77th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense18.2%20th
  Defense17.5%65th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what San José State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   SAC
2. W
   AF
3. W
   KENN
4. L
   WSU
5. W
   NEV
6. L
   CSU
7. W
   WYO
8. L
   FRES
9. W
   ORST
10. L
    BOIS
11. L
    UNLV
12. W
    STAN
13. L
    USF

Bars above the line: better than expected for San José State.

Players, 2024

1. Walker EgetQB319 plays · +0.177 pts/play · 87th of 232 QBs
   1.06WAR0.49 to 1.66
2. Emmett BrownQB204 plays · +0.206 pts/play · 103rd of 232 QBs
   0.79WAR0.44 to 1.13
3. Nick NashWR91 plays · +0.280 pts/play · 1st of 452 WRs
   0.48WAR0.22 to 0.71
4. Justin LockhartWR53 plays · +0.358 pts/play · 5th of 452 WRs
   0.36WAR0.24 to 0.47
5. Floyd Chalk IVRB141 plays · +0.123 pts/play · 76th of 373 RBs
   0.32WAR0.22 to 0.42
6. Jabari BatesRB50 plays · +0.099 pts/play · 251st of 373 RBs
   0.09WAR0.07 to 0.12
7. Jackson CanaanTE25 plays · +0.171 pts/play · 34th of 221 TEs
   0.08WAR0.02 to 0.14
8. Matt ColemanWR30 plays · +0.106 pts/play · 217th of 452 WRs
   0.06WAR0.01 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares San José State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  480480116th of 131Roster talent: 480, 116th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  13313399th of 131Recruiting: 133, 99th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  24%24%109th of 130Returning production: 24%, 109th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −5.5−5.590th of 131SP+ rating: −5.5, 90th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than San José State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.09 of the 0.13 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs STANQ4 3:45 4th & 6 at STAN 15, down 4Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−5.0 pts
2. vs UNLVQ4 14:55 4th & 6 at UNLV 39, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
3. vs STANQ3 4:57 4th & 3 at STAN 7, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
4. vs NEVQ4 9:41 4th & 2 at SJSU 33, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
5. at CSUQ4 1:06 4th & 7 at CSU 14, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
6. at WSUQ4 3:37 4th & 10 at SJSU 25, down 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
7. vs SACQ4 3:02 4th & 3 at SAC 45, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. vs SACQ2 7:17 4th & 6 at SAC 43, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

32nd of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up San José State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   SAC
2. W

   AF
3. W

   KENN
4. L

   WSU
5. W

   NEV
6. L

   CSU
7. W

   WYO
8. L

   FRES
9. W

   ORST
10. L

    BOIS
11. L

    UNLV
12. W

    STAN
13. L

    USF

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at San José State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.07
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock+0.08
• Timeouts−0.05
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.53

Game by game

• SACW 42-24 vs SAC60% → 99%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +43, Timeouts −2
• AFW 17-7 at AF47% → 97%Before kickoff −3 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +48, Timeouts +4
• KENNW 31-10 vs KENN89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +16, Timeouts −1
• WSUL 52-54 at WSU19% → 24%Before kickoff −31 · On the field +5: Timeouts +15, Scoreboard −15
• NEVW 35-31 vs NEV67% → 96%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +29, Timeouts +2
• CSUL 24-31 at CSU38% → 3%Before kickoff −12 · On the field −35: Scoreboard −36, Timeouts +3
• WYOW 24-14 vs WYO80% → 99%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +24
• FRESL 10-33 at FRES27% → 0%Before kickoff −23 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts +2
• ORSTW 24-13 at ORST43% → 96%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +53: Scoreboard +53, Clock +3
• BOISL 21-42 vs BOIS15% → 0%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −15: Scoreboard −19, Timeouts −2
• UNLVL 16-27 vs UNLV30% → 2%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −36, Clock −2
• STANW 34-31 vs STAN46% → 95%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +48: Scoreboard +37, Clock +2
• USFL 39-41 vs USF37% → 50%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +13: Timeouts −25, Clock +16

Points of win probability, from San José State's side.

Closest call

SJSU 38-21 UNM (2020) - San José State dropped to a 0.9% win probability before pulling it out.