San José State

Profile vs. FBS, 2015

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1566th
  Defense+0.1142nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.8%73rd
  Defense43.0%47th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1943rd
  Defense+1.1761st
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1064th
  Defense+0.1610th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2265th
  Defense+0.0576th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.8%63rd
  Defense48.2%39th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense38.7%83rd
  Defense32.0%61st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9157th
  Defense2.9928th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.6%69th
  Defense17.3%22nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.2%34th
  Defense1.8%40th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2015

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what San José State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   UNH
2. L
   AF
3. L
   ORST
4. W
   FRES
5. L
   AUB
6. W
   UNLV
7. L
   SDSU
8. W
   UNM
9. L
   BYU
10. L
    NEV
11. W
    HAW
12. L
    BOIS
13. W
    GAST

Bars above the line: better than expected for San José State.

Players, 2015

1. Kenny PotterQB313 plays · +0.324 pts/play · 32nd of 205 QBs
   1.90WAR1.37 to 2.46
2. Tyler ErvinRB290 plays · +0.133 pts/play · 6th of 333 RBs
   0.72WAR0.47 to 0.99
3. Joe GrayQB81 plays · +0.264 pts/play · 144th of 205 QBs
   0.40WAR0.26 to 0.54
4. Tim CrawleyWR44 plays · +0.204 pts/play · 108th of 411 WRs
   0.17WAR0.10 to 0.24
5. Michael CarrizosaP39 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 28th of 92 punters
   0.13WAR0.06 to 0.19
6. Hansell WilsonWR40 plays · +0.127 pts/play · 224th of 411 WRs
   0.10WAR0.05 to 0.15
7. Austin LopezPK14 plays · +0.256 pts/play · 99th of 115 kickers
   0.07WAR0.02 to 0.11
8. Tyler WinstonWR36 plays · +0.048 pts/play · 355th of 411 WRs
   0.03WAR−0.01 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares San José State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2015

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  380380100th of 128Roster talent: 380, 100th of 128 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14614675th of 128Recruiting: 146, 75th of 128 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  80%80%30th of 127Returning production: 80%, 30th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −4.5−4.588th of 128SP+ rating: −4.5, 88th of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 128 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than San José State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.17 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at UNLVQ4 1:08 4th & 10 at UNLV 21, down 4Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−4.0 pts
2. at GASTQ3 0:02 4th & 2 at GAST 2, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.4 pts
3. at ORSTQ3 1:34 4th & 1 at SJSU 28, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
4. at UNLVQ3 6:22 4th & 2 at UNLV 17, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
5. at UNLVQ4 10:18 4th & 3 at SJSU 42, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
6. at GASTQ2 11:05 4th & 2 at GAST 2, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. at UNLVQ3 3:14 4th & 3 at SJSU 39, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
8. at UNLVQ2 7:45 4th & 3 at UNLV 13, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2015

92nd of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up San José State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   UNH
2. L

   AF
3. L

   ORST
4. W

   FRES
5. L

   AUB
6. W

   UNLV
7. L

   SDSU
8. W

   UNM
9. L

   BYU
10. L

    NEV
11. W

    HAW
12. L

    BOIS
13. W

    GAST

What moved it, 2015

Every game starts at San José State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.55
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock−0.21
• Timeouts+0.36
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.14

Game by game

• UNHW 43-13 vs UNH76% → 100%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +1
• AFL 16-37 at AF40% → 0%Before kickoff −10 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts −1
• ORSTL 21-35 at ORST37% → 1%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −35, Timeouts −2
• FRESW 49-23 vs FRES67% → 100%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +33
• AUBL 21-35 at AUB11% → 2%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −16, Timeouts −1
• UNLVW 33-27 at UNLV64% → 90%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +16
• SDSUL 7-30 vs SDSU59% → 1%Before kickoff +9 · On the field −58: Scoreboard −57, Clock −1
• UNMW 31-21 vs UNM73% → 97%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +28, Possession & field position +1
• BYUL 16-17 vs BYU24% → 19%Before kickoff −26 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −30, Clock −3
• NEVL 34-37 at NEV54% → 15%Before kickoff +4 · On the field −39: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts +23
• HAWW 42-23 at HAW77% → 99%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +31, Clock +1
• BOISL 23-40 vs BOIS31% → 1%Before kickoff −19 · On the field −30: Scoreboard −38, Clock −2
• GASTW 27-16 at GAST63% → 97%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +44, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from San José State's side.

Closest call

SJSU 38-21 UNM (2020) - San José State dropped to a 0.9% win probability before pulling it out.