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SJSU

San José State 33 at UNLV 27

UNLV
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-3.7UNLV 24.3%Austin Lopez 34 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 10 · Q3 6:22
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:22 · Austin Lopez 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 111Pregame prior−5.3Home team on offense−15.1Garbage-time factor−5.0Score differential−6.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 10:23: Kurt Palandech pass complete to Andrew Price for 25 yds for a TD, (Nicolai Bornand KICK) — UNLV win probability +22.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q4 3:41: Kurt Palandech pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 22 yds for a TD, (Nicolai Bornand KICK) — UNLV win probability +40.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:08: Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 21 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +59.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:11: Nicolai Bornand 49 yd FG GOOD — UNLV win probability +25.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Tyler Ervin 2 Yd Run — SJSU win probability +30.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 6:45SJSU 4th & 13 at SJSU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:42UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:46SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:39UNLV 4th & 3 at SJSU 10, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%−0.4
    88% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:45SJSU 4th & 3 at UNLV 13, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.4%−0.7
    85% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−6.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:09UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:54SJSU 4th & 3 at UNLV 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%−1.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:05UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:22SJSU 4th & 2 at UNLV 17, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.8%−1.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−10.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:22UNLV 4th & 19 at UNLV 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−2.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:14SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 39, up 10
    Close callPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:00UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:18SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 42, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:08SJSU 4th & 10 at UNLV 21, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.0 ptsWent for it · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%−4.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−11.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:11UNLV 4th & 17 at SJSU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−15.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−19.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:40UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:43SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:09SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:23UNLV Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:41UNLV Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−1.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:08SJSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−3.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2036% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
35.5%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the UNLV 26Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
35.8%
George Naufahu run for 9 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
35.8%
Kurt Palandech pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
35.8%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Keith Whitely for 5 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
35.8%
Kurt Palandech run for 5 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
35.8%
Kurt Palandech run for 1 yd to the UNLV 46Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+23
35.8%
George Naufahu run for 23 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
35.9%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Xzaviar Campbell for 3 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+5
35.9%
Kurt Palandech run for 5 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+7
35.9%
Kurt Palandech run for 7 yds to the SJSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
35.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 15 yds to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.5%
George Naufahu run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nicolai Bornand KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
39.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 27Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+2
39.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+4
39.6%
Kenny Potter pass intercepted Peni Vea return for 4 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
41.6%
UNLV Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 15
OPP 45
-2
41.3%
Kurt Palandech run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 47Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+15
41.3%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Kendal Keys for 15 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+3
41.4%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
41.7%
Kurt Palandech pass intercepted Jimmy Pruitt return for 5 yds to the SJSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
41.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 17 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
41.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 31Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+6
41.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 6 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
41.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 7 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
41.2%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Billy FreemanSimilar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
41.4%
Kenny Potter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-3
41.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 41Similar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 13
OWN 41
0
42.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
44.6%
George Naufahu run for 2 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
44.6%
Kurt Palandech pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
44.2%
Kurt Palandech pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
43.8%
Logan Yunker punt for 40 yds, downed at the SJSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
44.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
44.0%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tim CrawleySimilar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
44.4%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tyler WinstonSimilar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
45.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7FG
9 plays · 70 yds · 4:2446% → 51%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
45.9%
Keith Whitely run for 5 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
46.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 9 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
46.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 11 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
46.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 9 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+29
49.0%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 29 yds to the SJSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
49.2%
George Naufahu run for 1 yd to the SJSt 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+5
49.2%
George Naufahu run for 5 yds to the SJSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+1
48.7%
Kurt Palandech run for 1 yd to the SJSt 10Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
51.0%
Nicolai Bornand 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:5449% → 48%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
51.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 15 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
50.6%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the SJSt 40Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
50.8%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Winston for 1 yd to the SJSt 41Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+13
51.2%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Winston for 13 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
49.8%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Billy FreemanSimilar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
50.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+23
50.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 23 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
49.0%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Billy FreemanSimilar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-2
49.1%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 22Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+9
50.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 9 yds to the UNLV 13Similar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
52.5%
Austin Lopez 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9INT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
54.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 4 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+1
55.4%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 1 yd to the UNLV 35Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+9
54.4%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to George Naufahu for 9 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
56.3%
Kurt Palandech run for 11 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
56.6%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 47Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 12
OPP 47
0
55.8%
Kurt Palandech pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+54
54.9%
Kurt Palandech pass intercepted Maurice McKnight return for 54 yds to the UNLV 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10TD
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
39.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 11 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11KICKOFF
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.6%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
47.0%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
46.5%
Kurt Palandech run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
45.4%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3257% → 71%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
43.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 11 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
42.4%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the SJSt 36Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
42.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+42
42.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Winston for 42 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
28.6%
Kenny Potter run for 20 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
33.9%
Kurt Palandech run for 1 yd to the UNLV 26Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
33.9%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to George NaufahuSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
32.9%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to George NaufahuSimilar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+66
32.5%
Logan Yunker punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSU 23 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, kick catching interference (15 Yards) to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:2270% → 71%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
30.4%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Hansell WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
30.5%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tyler WinstonSimilar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+19
31.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 19 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
28.6%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Billy Freeman, broken up by Peni VeaSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
29.0%
Kenny Potter run for 5 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
30.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 24 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-12
28.6%
ERVIN, Tyler rush for 11 yards to the LV34 (VALOAGA, J.), PENALTY SJ personal foul (HOLMES, Justin) 12 yards to the SJ43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 22
OWN 43
+9
30.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 9 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 13
OPP 48
-2
29.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Winston for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 15
50
+12
30.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 12 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
30.1%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the UNLV 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
32.9%
Keith Whitely run for 4 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
34.2%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Kendal Keys for 3 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-1
33.8%
Kurt Palandech run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 44Similar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
31.5%
Logan Yunker punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:5270% → 76%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
30.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 19 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
28.1%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Shane Smith for 21 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
27.6%
Malik Roberson run for 3 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+2
27.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 2 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+9
27.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 9 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
27.0%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tyler WinstonSimilar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
27.2%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Billy FreemanSimilar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+8
28.0%
Kenny Potter run for 8 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+34
24.3%
Austin Lopez 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
23.6%
Kurt Palandech run for 7 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
24.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
24.4%
Kurt Palandech run for 17 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
26.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the SJSt 45Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
26.2%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to George Naufahu for no gain to the SJSt 45Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 9
OPP 45
-10
25.2%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Christian Tago for a loss of 10 yards to the UNLV 45Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 19
OWN 45
0
22.2%
Logan Yunker punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
22.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 2 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
22.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
23.1%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Chris Kearney for 7 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
22.2%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Shane Smith, broken up by Peni VeaSimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
22.3%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tyler Winston, broken up by Torry McTyerSimilar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+7
23.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 7 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
22.9%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 1:3221% → 19%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
20.5%
Keith Whitely run for 7 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+2
20.7%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+3
19.7%
Keith Whitely run for 3 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
21.2%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-10
21.0%
PALANDECH, Kurt rush for 40 yards to the SJ40 (McKNIGHT, Mauri), PENALTY LV holding (NOONE, Eric) 10 yards to the LV10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 19
OWN 10
0
20.8%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Anthony WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 19
OWN 10
+9
19.8%
Kurt Palandech run for 9 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
19.0%
Logan Yunker punt for 47 yds , Tyler Ervin returns for no gain to the SJSt 36 Tyler Ervin fumbled, recovered by UNLV Peni VeaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21TD
4 plays · 36 yds · 1:4523% → 48%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
22.8%
Keith Whitely run for 5 yds to the SJSt 29 Keith Whitely fumbled, forced by Frank Ginda, recovered by UNLV Kurt PalandechSimilar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+4
25.6%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 4 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
25.6%
Xzaviar Campbell run for no gain to the SJSt 25Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
47.6%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Andrew Price for 25 yds for a TD, (Nicolai Bornand KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
34.1%
Jarrod Lawson run for 6 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
32.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Josh Oliver for 5 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
33.1%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the SJSt 35Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+9
34.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 53 yds , Keith Whitely returns for 9 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
33.8%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tim Crawley, broken up by Ryan McAleenanSimilar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+7
35.2%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 7 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:4938% → 89%
Q4 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+10
38.0%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 10 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
40.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-10
42.9%
WHITELY, Keith rush for 4 yards to the LV39 (IRVING, Isaiah), PENALTY LV holding (NOONE, Eric) 10 yards to the LV25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+2
39.4%
Kurt Palandech run for 2 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+49
37.7%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Kendal Keys for 49 yds to the SJSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
39.6%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Andrew Price, broken up by William OssaiSimilar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
39.4%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 6 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
48.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 2 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+22
88.9%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 22 yds for a TD, (Nicolai Bornand KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 24TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3323% → 88%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 9 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
73.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 12 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
72.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Shane Smith for 15 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
71.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 9 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+9
68.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 9 yds to the UNLV 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
68.5%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Hansell WilsonSimilar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
69.0%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Billy FreemanSimilar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
71.5%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Chris KearneySimilar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+21
12.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 21 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 0:5728% → 53%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
28.2%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Andrew Price for 22 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
32.6%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
31.7%
PALANDECH, Kurt pass incomplete to KEYS, Kendal, PENALTY SJ offside (IRVING, Isaiah) 5 yards to the SJ48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+7
34.1%
Kurt Palandech run for 7 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
35.6%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Keith Whitely for 8 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+8
42.1%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Kendal Keys for 8 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
37.0%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Keith WhitelySimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
30.9%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-7
27.5%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Vincente Miles Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 32Similar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 17
OPP 32
+49
52.9%
Nicolai Bornand 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
47.2%
TEAM run for no gain to the SJSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 27MISSED FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0065% → 56%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
64.7%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 30Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+9
61.4%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Kendal Keys for 9 yds to the SJSt 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
-5
62.4%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Tony Popovich and Frank Ginda for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 26Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
55.7%
Nicolai Bornand 43 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Isaiah Irving Isaiah Irving return for no gain to the SJSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 28TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 90%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
40.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 6 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+17
40.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 17 yds to the UNLV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
40.6%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the UNLV 2Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.8%
Tyler Ervin 2 Yd Run Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:08
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 21 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)
-59
TD · Q4 3:41
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 22 yds for a TD, (Nicolai Bornand KICK)
+40
TD · OT 0:00
Tyler Ervin 2 Yd Run
-30.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com