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SJSU

San José State 16 at Air Force 37

AF
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:25 · Michael Carrizosa punt for 57 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Home team on offense+0.8Pregame prior+4.6Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:11: Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 17 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK) — SJSU win probability +4.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:28: Nate Romine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK) — AF win probability +9.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:12: Tyler Ervin run for 66 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford PAT BLOCKED) — SJSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 12:29: D.J. Johnson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle PAT MISSED) — AF win probability +17.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:00: D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK) — AF win probability +6.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 10 of 10SJSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:08SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:49AF 4th & 8 at AF 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:41SJSU 4th & 13 at SJSU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:05AF 4th & 1 at AF 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:11AF 4th & 14 at AF 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:46AF 4th & 18 at AF 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:00SJSU 4th & 10 at AF 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−4.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:12AF 4th & 3 at AF 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:25SJSU 4th & 12 at SJSU 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−2.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:55AF 4th & 1 at SJSU 37, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    64.2%−4.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:40AF 4th & 10 at SJSU 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−9.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:52SJSU 4th & 17 at AF 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−2.2
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−7.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 17 at AF 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−6.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:29SJSU 4th & 11 at SJSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:00AF 4th & 1 at SJSU 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    84.6%−3.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−11.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:43SJSU 4th & 22 at SJSU 13, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:07AF 4th & 13 at AF 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:08AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:11SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:28AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:12SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:29AF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:00AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:43AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5260% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.2%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
60.2%
Garrett Brown run for 1 yd to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
60.2%
Nate Romine pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 9 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
61.0%
Garrett Brown run for 63 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
60.9%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, illegal shift (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 20Similar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
60.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 6 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
60.9%
Kenny Potter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
60.9%
Kenny Potter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:08
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
61.0%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 73 yds, downed at the AFA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
61.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 4Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+2
61.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 5
OWN 6
-3
61.2%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 3Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
61.1%
Brett Dunn punt for 68 yds, downed at the SJSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
61.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+17
61.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 17 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
61.6%
Kenny Potter run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-15
61.5%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive pass interference (-15 Yards) to the SJSt 37Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 22
OWN 37
-4
62.0%
Kenny Potter sacked by Roland Ladipo for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 33Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 26
OWN 33
+13
62.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Winston for 13 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
62.3%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5INT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
63.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+5
63.4%
Garrett Brown run for 5 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+2
63.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+3
62.9%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
63.5%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
63.4%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+24
63.1%
Nate Romine pass intercepted Jimmy Pruitt return for 24 yds to the AFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:3638% → 42%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
62.3%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+9
62.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 9 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 1
OPP 12
-5
62.8%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 17Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+17
58.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 17 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.2%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
60.3%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
59.5%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ryan Reffitt, broken up by Cleveland Wallace IIISimilar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-5
59.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
59.1%
Brett Dunn punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5042% → 40%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
58.3%
Kenny Potter run for 1 yd to the SJSt 41Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+4
58.4%
Jarrod Lawson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-5
58.0%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
59.1%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tyler Winston, broken up by Jacob OnyechiSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
59.8%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
60.1%
Tyler Williams run for 9 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
61.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
60.4%
Nate Romine pass complete to Garrett Brown for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+13
60.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 13 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
61.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 7
50
-5
61.6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-6
60.7%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 18
OWN 39
0
59.7%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ryan Reffitt, broken up by Maurice McKnightSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 18
OWN 39
0
59.2%
Brett Dunn punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10MISSED FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 6:4041% → 45%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
58.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
58.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+13
58.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Justin Holmes for 13 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
57.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 11 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
57.0%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 47Similar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 15
OWN 47
0
58.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for no gain to the SJSt 47Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
58.3%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Hansell Wilson, broken up by David HarrisSimilar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+23
57.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 23 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
54.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+4
54.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jarrod Lawson for 4 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+6
55.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 6 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
54.4%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
54.7%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Justin Holmes, broken up by Hayes LinnSimilar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
55.7%
Joe Gray pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
55.5%
Bryce Crawford 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 4:3260% → 73%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
59.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
59.3%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+17
58.4%
Nate Romine run for 17 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
61.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
61.8%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Isaiah Irving) to the AFA 49Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+3
62.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
62.4%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
62.1%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Tony Popovich) to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+14
62.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 14 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
62.9%
Nate Romine run for 8 yds to the SJSt 21Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+8
63.0%
Shayne Davern run for 8 yds to the SJSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
63.0%
Nate Romine run for 6 yds to the SJSt 7Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+5
63.0%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the SJSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.9%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.1%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the SJSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4830% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 9 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+66
60.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 66 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.2%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd to the AFA 26 Nate Romine fumbled, forced by William Ossai, recovered by AFA Nate RomineSimilar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
63.0%
Nate Romine run for 4 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
62.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 14:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
61.7%
Brett Dunn punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
61.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 14 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
59.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 43Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
60.8%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Hansell Wilson, broken up by Jesse WashingtonSimilar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
61.8%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Hansell WilsonSimilar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
63.3%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 7:1563% → 70%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
62.7%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 12 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
63.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (Matt Rochell) to the AFA 22Similar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+3
62.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 17
OWN 25
+6
62.3%
Nate Romine run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+13
61.4%
Nate Romine run for 13 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
65.4%
Bryan Driskell run for 8 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+2
66.3%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
66.3%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
66.2%
Benton Washington run for 3 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+4
65.7%
Benton Washington run for 4 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+9
64.1%
Garrett Brown run for 9 yds to the SJSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
67.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-2
67.1%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 28Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
65.6%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
69.5%
Drew Oehrle 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:4833% → 36%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+57
66.8%
Kenny Potter run for 42 yds to the AIRFORCE 33 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Brodie Hicks) to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
60.4%
Kenny Potter run for 2 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-9
60.4%
Kenny Potter sacked by Weston Steelhammer for a loss of 9 yards to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 17
OPP 25
0
68.9%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tyler ErvinSimilar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 17
OPP 25
+42
64.1%
Austin Lopez 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 1:5265% → 63%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
64.8%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
64.4%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
63.2%
Nate Romine run for 13 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
67.2%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ryan ReffittSimilar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
65.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-13
67.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal helmet contact (Tyler Williams) to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 34
0
63.0%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 34
0
62.5%
Brett Dunn punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
62.6%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Winston for 3 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+1
62.4%
Kenny Potter pass intercepted Kalon Baker return for 1 yd to the SJSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 1:1771% → 88%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
71.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+8
71.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 8 yds to the SJSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
71.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 11 yds to the SJSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
88.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
81.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 24Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
81.7%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Billy Freeman, broken up by Connor HealySimilar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
82.7%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tim CrawleySimilar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+17
83.4%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 59 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 17 yds to the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:2486% → 97%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+45
86.2%
Nate Romine run for 45 yds to the SJSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
88.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 7 yds to the SJSt 14Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+1
88.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 13Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+3
87.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
88.5%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 14Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+3
88.0%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the SJSt 11Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+6
87.4%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Joe Gray) to the SJSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
88.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 4Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
88.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 3Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
91.0%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the SJSt 1Similar
Q4 7:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23INT
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:004% → 6%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Justin Holmes for 9 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
95.2%
Joe Gray pass complete to Justin Holmes for 5 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
95.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 13 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.0%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Billy FreemanSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
95.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 3 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+13
95.2%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 13 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
94.3%
Joe Gray pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for no gain to the AFA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 1:3297% → 100%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+52
97.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 52 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
97.7%
D.J. Johnson run for no gain to the SJSt 35Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
97.6%
Benton Washington run for 1 yd to the SJSt 34Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+34
99.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 34 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Justin Holmes, broken up by Roland LadipoSimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.8%
Kenny Potter sacked by David Harris for a loss of 10 yards to the SJSt 15Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 20
OWN 15
-2
99.8%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 13Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
99.8%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 51 yds, downed at the AFA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.8%
Bryan Driskell run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-3
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Brett Dunn punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:29
D.J. Johnson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Drew Oehrle PAT MISSED)
+17.1
TD · Q3 14:12
Tyler Ervin run for 66 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford PAT BLOCKED)
-9.6
TD · Q2 0:28
Nate Romine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Oehrle KICK)
+9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com