2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreSJSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:43 · Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 24 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:38: Peyton Barber run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +4.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:01: Joe Gray run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK) — SJSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:37: Peyton Barber run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +6.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:38: Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK) — SJSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:43: Peyton Barber run for 36 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 5SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 15:00AUB 4th & 9 at SJSU 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snapGo for it90.5%−<0.132% to convertField goal90.5%−<0.138% to makePuntTheir call90.5%average punt
- Q1 9:43SJSU 4th & 4 at AUB 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.3%48% to convertField goal10.2%−0.127% to makePunt10.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:32SJSU 4th & 3 at AUB 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.8%52% to convertField goal11.6%−0.254% to makePunt11.4%−0.5average punt
- Q2 15:00AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 39, up 7Close callPunted · 88.0% before the snapGo for it88.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 8:43AUB 4th & 6 at SJSU 38, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snapGo for it87.4%40% to convertField goalTheir call87.1%−0.338% to makePunt87.1%−0.3average punt
- Q2 8:43SJSU 4th & 1 at AUB 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.6%71% to convertField goal12.8%−0.972% to makePunt10.2%−3.4average punt
- Q3 7:51AUB 4th & 1 at SJSU 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.8%71% to convertField goal85.5%−1.483% to makePunt81.0%−5.8average punt
- Q3 4:37SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snapGo for it8.1%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.4%average punt
- Q4 10:02AUB 4th & 1 at SJSU 8, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snapGo for it95.8%70% to convertField goalTheir call94.6%−1.290% to makePunt91.3%−4.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 9:54AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.6%97% to makeGo for two89.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:55SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.3%97% to makeGo for two12.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:32AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two88.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:38AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.0%97% to makeGo for two91.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:01SJSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.8%97% to makeGo for two13.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:37AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:38SJSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.0%97% to makeGo for two7.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:43AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%−0.697% to makeGo for two96.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAUBDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2INT6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 13:38
2ND & 1
OWN 38
-10
88.2%
Tyler Ervin rush up the middle for 3 yards to the SJ41 (Johnathan Ford), PENALTY SJ holding (Josh Oliver) 10 yards to the SJ28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+11
88.2%
Joe Gray pass intercepted Justin Garrett return for 11 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3TD5 plays · 23 yds · 3:4488% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4TD11 plays · 69 yds · 4:4812% → 15%
Q1 9:43
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+14
87.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+24
87.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 24 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+18
84.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 18 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD9 plays · 60 yds · 2:1886% → 88%
SJSUDrive 6DOWNS7 plays · 44 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
86.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 11 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
SJSUDrive 8FUMBLE7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
86.5%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 7 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+7
86.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 7 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+8
86.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 8 yds Hansell Wilson fumbled, forced by Johnathan Ford, recovered by Aub Dontavius RussellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9MISSED FG5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2687% → 87%
Q2 10:09
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
87.0%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 2 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10FUMBLE9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 8:43
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+1
85.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the Aub 26 Tyler Ervin fumbled, forced by Montravius Adams, recovered by Aub Jonathan JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11TD10 plays · 74 yds · 3:2086% → 92%
Q2 3:58
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+8
86.7%
Sean White run for 8 yds to the Aub 43 Sean White fumbled, forced by Team, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+17
86.6%
Sean White pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 17 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+31
86.2%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 31 yds to the SJSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
87.2%
Peyton Barber run for 5 yds to the SJSt 5 Peyton Barber fumbled, forced by Nick Oreglia, recovered by Aub Peyton BarberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:009% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:5910% → 20%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+11
90.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 11 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+13
89.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 13 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
88.6%
Hansell Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 23 Hansell Wilson fumbled, recovered by SJSt Hansell Wilson , return for 2 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+17
88.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Malik Roberson for 17 yds to the Aub 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14TD9 plays · 24 yds · 3:1487% → 93%
Q3 7:51
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
87.4%
Sean White pass incomplete to Melvin Ray, broken up by Vincente Jr. MilesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 4:37
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
91.3%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16MISSED FG15 plays · 79 yds · 7:3194% → 95%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.2%
Sean White pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 5 yds to the Aub 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:246% → 16%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
93.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 9 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+17
92.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 17 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+11
92.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 11 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+15
95.7%
Joe Gray right endzone pass incomplete to Tyler Winston (Blake Countess), PENALTY AU pass interference (Blake Countess) 15 yards to the AU2, 1ST DOWN SJ, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD3 plays · 45 yds · 0:5393% → 98%
SJSUDrive 19INT10 plays · 28 yds · 1:443% → 1%
Q4 3:52
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+11
97.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 11 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
97.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 20 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
97.2%
Joe Gray sacked by Cassanova McKinzy for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 13
OPP 40
0
98.6%
Joe Gray pass intercepted Carlton Davis return for no gain to the Aub 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20END OF GAME4 plays · 24 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:38
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q3 8:01
Joe Gray run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)
-8.4
TD · Q3 4:37
Peyton Barber run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+6