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SDSU

San Diego State 30 at San José State 7

SJSU
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:34 · Michael Carrizosa punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Pregame prior+8.7Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:38: Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 38 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 11:02: Donny Hageman 25 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 10:21: Chase Price run for 15 yds to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST down — SDSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:48: Chase Price run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +14.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 2:37: Donny Hageman 39 yd FG GOOD — SDSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:21SDSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    43.0%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:34SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:56SJSU 4th & 13 at SJSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:33SDSU 4th & 7 at SJSU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    45.9%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:52SJSU 4th & 15 at SDSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:18SDSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−1.3
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:02SDSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 8, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%−1.0
    90% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−8.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:48SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 30, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:37SDSU 4th & 12 at SJSU 22, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−5.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:31SJSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 46, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−1.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00SJSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 37, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:02SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 44, up 23
    Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:22SDSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 33, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.6
    49% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:02SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:38SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:27SJSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:48SDSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:3941% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
59.1%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 28 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
59.1%
Dakota Gordon run for 1 yd to the SJSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+1
59.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+2
59.0%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 2 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
59.1%
Tanner Blain punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-4
59.2%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 8Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 14
OWN 8
-4
59.2%
Kenny Potter sacked by Jon Sanchez for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 4Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 18
OWN 4
+16
59.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Winston for 16 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
59.0%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:4341% → 44%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
58.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 42Similar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+17
58.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 17 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
58.6%
Mikah Holder run for 8 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+4
58.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SJSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
56.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 13 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
57.0%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the SJSt 29Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-3
56.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 26Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 13
OWN 26
0
56.7%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tim Crawley, broken up by JJ WhittakerSimilar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 13
OWN 26
-3
56.6%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 52 yds , Lloyd Mills returns for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+23
56.3%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 23 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
55.7%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+8
55.7%
Chase Price run for 8 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+1
55.7%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
55.6%
Maxwell Smith sacked by Nate Falo for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSt 42Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+8
56.1%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Chase Price for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 12
50
+5
55.9%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Chase Price for 5 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
56.0%
Tanner Blain punt for 39 yds, downed at the SJSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6MISSED FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:1555% → 53%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
54.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+3
54.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 11Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+8
54.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 8 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
54.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 7 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 3
OWN 26
-2
55.2%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 24Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+50
54.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Malik Roberson for 35 yds to the SJSU 41 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
57.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 24 Tyler Ervin fumbled, forced by Malik Smith,Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-7
56.0%
Kenny Potter sacked by Calvin Munson for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 31
0
54.2%
Kenny Potter run for no gain to the SDSt 31 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:52
4TH & 15
OPP 31
+48
52.6%
Austin Lopez 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 2:1448% → 58%
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
52.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
50
+6
51.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+1
51.0%
Dakota Gordon run for 1 yd to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+5
51.3%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Nick Oreglia) to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
42.1%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 38 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:1144% → 51%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
43.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Winston for 7 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
44.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
44.1%
Kenny Potter run for 2 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
44.4%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tyler Ervin, broken up by Jake FelySimilar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+18
43.9%
Kenny Potter run for 3 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (Alex Barrett) to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
45.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 49Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+14
44.9%
Malik Roberson run for 14 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
45.9%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tim CrawleySimilar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
45.9%
Malik Roberson run for 2 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+15
45.3%
POTTER, Kenny deep pass incomplete to WILSON, Hansell, PENALTY SDSU pass interference (WHITTAKER, J.J.) 15 yards to the SDSU18, 1ST DOWN SJ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
46.0%
Malik Roberson run for 7 yds to the SDSt 11Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+1
46.0%
Malik Roberson run for 1 yd to the SDSt 10Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 2
OWN 0
+4
43.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 8 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (JJ Whittaker) to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
46.0%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the SDSt 2Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
46.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SDSt 1Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.9%
Kenny Potter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:0355% → 61%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
45.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+10
45.1%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 10 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
44.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SJSt 46Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+15
44.5%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 15 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
44.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 11 yds to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
44.2%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SJSt 20Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
44.3%
Maxwell Smith run for 6 yds to the SJSt 14Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
44.6%
Maxwell Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
39.1%
Donny Hageman 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
39.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.4%
Kenny Potter run for 5 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
39.0%
Kenny Potter run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
37.2%
Kenny Potter pass intercepted Damontae Kazee return for no gain to the SJSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:4164% → 72%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
36.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
36.3%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Mikah Holder, broken up by Andre ChachereSimilar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+13
36.9%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 13 yds to the SJSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
36.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SJSt 12Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-5
36.3%
PUMPHREY, Donne rush left for 11 yards to the SJ1 (CHACHERE, Andre), PENALTY SDSU illegal formation 5 yards to the SJ17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+9
36.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
37.2%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
28.2%
Donny Hageman 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
32.4%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 23Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
32.3%
Kenny Potter pass intercepted Alex Barrett return for 10 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:3375% → 89%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
25.5%
Chase Price run for 15 yds to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.1%
Chase Price run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
16.7%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 24Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
16.5%
Kenny Potter run for 6 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
16.7%
Kenny Potter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+46
16.5%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 36 yds, downed at the SJSU 34 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the SDSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 5:4288% → 96%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
11.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
10.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
10.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 9 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
9.6%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
9.8%
Chase Price run for 7 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+4
9.6%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
9.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 20 yds to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
9.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-1
9.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 17Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
9.6%
Maxwell Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 7
OPP 17
-5
10.9%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 22Similar
Q3 2:37
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+39
4.4%
Donny Hageman 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17DOWNS
14 plays · 39 yds · 2:316% → 5%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
5.6%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Winston for 7 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+6
5.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 6 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
5.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 8 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+1
6.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 46Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
6.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
6.0%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Malik RobersonSimilar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
6.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Chris Kearney for 6 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
6.2%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tyler WinstonSimilar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+6
6.0%
Kenny Potter run for 6 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
5.1%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the SDSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
5.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 3 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
5.1%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tim CrawleySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
4.9%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
2.9%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
2.9%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+2
2.9%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 2 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
Q4 14:02
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
3.2%
Tanner Blain punt for 48 yds, downed at the SJSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
2.8%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (Tim Crawley) to the SJSt 4Similar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+4
2.8%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Malik Roberson for 4 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+11
2.8%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 11 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
2.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 11 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
3.0%
Malik Roberson run for 17 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
3.2%
Kenny Potter sacked by Calvin Munson for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 42Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+6
3.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Chris Kearney for 6 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-11
3.1%
Kenny Potter sacked by Calvin Munson for a loss of 11 yards to the SJSt 18 Kenny Potter fumbled, recovered by SJSt Keoni Taylor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 39
OWN 18
+2
2.9%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 55 yds , Damontae Kazee returns for 2 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20END OF GAME
15 plays · 65 yds · 0:0098% → 99%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
1.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+15
1.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 15 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
1.5%
Dakota Gordon run for 11 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
1.5%
PENNY, Rashaad rush left for 4 yards to the SJ38 (SAUCEDO, Moses), PENALTY SJ offside (FOLEY, Brett) 5 yards to the SJ37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 5
OPP 37
+1
1.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SJSt 36Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+2
1.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+1
1.5%
Marcus Stamps run for 1 yd to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 8:22
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+1
1.6%
Marcus Stamps run for 1 yd to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
1.5%
Marcus Stamps run for 5 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (Dominic Barnes) to the SJSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
1.5%
Marcus Stamps run for 4 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+4
1.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the SJSt 4Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
1.5%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
1.4%
Marcus Stamps run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 2Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
1.5%
Marcus Stamps run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 5Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:48
Chase Price run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q2 11:38
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 38 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
-9.2
FG · Q3 11:02
Donny Hageman 25 yd FG GOOD
-8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com