2024 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2024 · Gesa Field
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreSJSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT2 0:00 · Nick Nash 4 Yd pass from Emmett Brown (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q4 6:11: Josh Meredith 36 Yd pass from John Mateer (Dean Janikowski PAT failed) — WSU win probability +28.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q4 4:56: Dylan Paine 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — WSU win probability +29.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:26: TreyShun Hurry 20 Yd pass from Emmett Brown (Emmett Brown Pass to Nick Nash for Two-Point Conversion) — SJSU win probability +62.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:00: Dean Janikowski 52 Yd Field Goal — WSU win probability +38.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · OT2 0:00: Dylan Paine 7 Yd Run (John Mateer Run for Two-Point Conversion) — WSU win probability +22.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 13:22WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt80.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:57SJSU 4th & 2 at WSU 2, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snapGo for it23.1%48% to convertField goalTheir call22.8%−0.394% to makePunt21.3%−1.8average punt
- Q2 9:44SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 43, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snapGo for it22.5%−0.632% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.1%average punt
- Q2 4:34WSU 4th & 11 at SJSU 29, up 11Close callWent for it · 83.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.6%−0.426% to convertField goal83.1%58% to makePunt80.7%−2.4average punt
- Q2 3:07SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 33, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt15.6%−0.6average punt
- Q2 0:02WSU 4th & 14 at SJSU 19, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snapGo for it73.3%−1.417% to convertField goalTheir call74.6%77% to makePunt70.2%−4.4average punt
- Q3 5:06WSU 4th & 11 at WSU 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snapGo for it44.0%−3.726% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.7%average punt
- Q4 12:40SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snapGo for it65.3%−1.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.2%average punt
- Q4 11:01WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snapGo for it28.4%−1.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.9%average punt
- Q4 7:36SJSU 4th & 1 at WSU 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call76.9%71% to convertField goal72.1%−4.845% to makePunt70.7%−6.2average punt
- Q4 3:37SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 25, down 5Close callPunted · 19.5% before the snapGo for it14.4%28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.6%−0.7average punt
- Q4 1:56WSU 4th & 4 at WSU 39, up 5Close callPunted · 91.1% before the snapGo for it90.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.9%−0.9average punt
- Q4 0:26SJSU 4th & 10 at WSU 20, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.6%28% to convertField goal10.2%−6.475% to makePunt9.2%−7.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SJSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 9:00WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.6%97% to makeGo for two80.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:19SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.0%97% to makeGo for two21.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:31WSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.5%97% to makeGo for two77.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:41WSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.7%97% to makeGo for two82.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:40SJSU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.7%97% to makeGo for two23.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:02SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.9%97% to makeGo for two27.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:43SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.0%97% to makeGo for two50.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:48SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.6%97% to makeGo for two74.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:41WSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.2%97% to makeGo for two30.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 6:11WSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call52.5%97% to makeGo for two51.5%−1.045% to convert
- Q4 4:56WSU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick80.4%−0.397% to makeGo for twoTheir call80.6%45% to convert
- Q4 0:26SJSU Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick69.5%−0.697% to makeGo for twoTheir call70.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1TD15 plays · 76 yds · 5:5381% → 81%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
80.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 4 yds to the WSU 28Similar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
80.3%
Washington State Penalty, False Start (Kyle Williams) to the WSU 36Similar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 15
OWN 36
-5
80.1%
Washington State Penalty, False Start (Devin Kylany) to the WSU 31Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+18
79.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 18 yds to the SJSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
80.1%
John Mateer sacked by Gafa Faga for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 48Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+13
79.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 13 yds to the SJSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:3720% → 22%
SJSUDrive 3FG12 plays · 48 yds · 5:2122% → 24%
Q1 7:39
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+8
77.9%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 8 yds to the WSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+13
77.6%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 13 yds to the WSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
77.2%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 11 yds to the WSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+2
76.9%
Washington State Penalty, Face mask (2 yards) (Nusi Malani) to the WSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
76.4%
Floyd Chalk IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the WSU 5 Floyd Chalk IV fumbled, recovered by SJSU Emmett Brown E. Brown return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 3:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
76.1%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 3 yds to the WSU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4TD16 plays · 64 yds · 6:1575% → 78%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
75.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 16 yds to the WSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+17
74.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 17 yds to the SJSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-5
75.4%
MATEER, John pass short up the middle complete for 22 yards to HUTSON, Kris caught at the SJSU22 and advanced to the SJSU3 (POLLARD, Jordan), clock 13:27. PENALTY WSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on DIEU, Brock enforced 5 yards from the SJSU25 to the SJSU30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+28
75.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 28 yds to the SJSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.2%
Cooper Mathers 4 Yd pass from John Mateer (Dean Janikowski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3525% → 24%
WSUDrive 6TD9 plays · 85 yds · 3:5377% → 84%
Q2 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+25
76.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 25 yds to the WSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+15
76.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 15 yds to the SJSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+27
78.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 27 yds to the SJSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7DOWNS4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5384% → 83%
Q2 4:41
3RD & 11
OPP 29
0
83.5%
John Mateer pass incomplete San José State Penalty, Targeting on RAHIMI, Robert (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8TD12 plays · 76 yds · 2:5117% → 29%
Q2 3:47
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+10
83.7%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 10 yds to the SJSU 33Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+15
82.1%
BROWN, Emmett pass deep to the right incomplete intended for NASH, Nick thrown to the WSU25, clock 02:03. PENALTY WSU Pass Interference on GUSHIKEN, Kapena enforced 15 yards to the WSU39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+35
81.3%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 35 yds to the WSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.7%
Jacob Stewart 4 Yd pass from Emmett Brown (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9FG16 plays · 56 yds · 1:3475% → 81%
Q2 1:16
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
75.8%
John Mateer pass complete to Wayshawn Parker for 1 yd to the WSU 32Similar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
76.8%
John Mateer pass complete to Tony Freeman for 8 yds to the SJSU 47Similar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
77.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 9 yds to the SJSU 34Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+19
77.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 19 yds to the SJSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-10
77.6%
MATEER, John pass short to the right incomplete intended for HUTSON, Kris thrown to the SJSU5, clock 00:17. PENALTY WSU Holding on KYLANY, Devin enforced 10 yards from the SJSU9 to the SJSU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 14
OPP 19
-8
77.2%
John Mateer sacked by Jordan Cobbs for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSU 27Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 22
OPP 27
+8
78.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Tony Freeman for 8 yds to the SJSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5520% → 37%
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
79.8%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 6 yds to the SJSU 31Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
79.7%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 7 yds to the SJSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+43
78.7%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 43 yds to the WSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11INT11 plays · 43 yds · 4:1670% → 71%
Q3 10:48
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+22
69.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 22 yds to the SJSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
72.2%
Washington State Penalty, False Start (Rodrick Tialavea) to the SJSU 45Similar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+11
70.8%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 11 yds to the SJSU 34Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+9
73.0%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 9 yds to the SJSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-7
72.9%
John Mateer sacked by Jordan Cobbs for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSU 32Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 17
OPP 32
-55
71.0%
John Mateer pass intercepted Jordan Cobbs return for 55 yds to the WSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12TD9 plays · 20 yds · 2:5040% → 62%
Q3 7:58
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+3
60.0%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 3 yds to the WSU 12Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+3
59.8%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 3 yds to the WSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
59.7%
(06:20) BROWN, Emmett pass to the left incomplete intended for NASH, Nick thrown to the WSU0; QB hurried by LATAIMUA, Jackson, clock 06:21. PENALTY WSU Pass Interference on O'CONNOR, Ethan enforced 7 yards to the WSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3747% → 42%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
41.7%
(04:56) BROWN, Emmett pass short up the middle complete for 12 yards to LOCKHART, Justin caught at the SJSU30 and advanced to the SJSU37 (THORNTON, Kyle;WILSON, Adrian), clock 04:55. PENALTY SJSU Holding on MESA, Hudson enforced 10 yards from the SJSU25 to the SJSU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5258% → 84%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+15
42.3%
Emmett Brown pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 15 yds to the SJSU 30Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
38.5%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 4 yds to the SJSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
36.8%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 18 yds to the WSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
34.5%
BROWN, Emmett pass deep to the left incomplete intended for NASH, Nick broken up by GUSHIKEN, Kapena at the WSU15; QB hurried by WEBSTER, Syrus, clock 02:17. PENALTY WSU Pass Interference on GUSHIKEN, Kapena enforced 15 yards to the WSU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+10
32.8%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 10 yds to the WSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:0321% → 44%
SJSUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:5969% → 68%
Q4 12:40
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+3
32.1%
Dino Beslagic punt for 55 yds , Tony Freeman returns for 3 yds to the WSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 1:2533% → 30%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18DOWNS8 plays · 32 yds · 3:1173% → 79%
WSUDrive 19TD5 plays · 64 yds · 1:1529% → 58%
SJSUDrive 20INT3 plays · 6 yds · 0:4458% → 60%
WSUDrive 21TD2 plays · 32 yds · 0:2060% → 89%
SJSUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1425% → 20%
Q4 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-9
75.4%
Emmett Brown sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the SJSU 16 Emmett Brown fumbled, recovered by SJSU Malik Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+9
78.3%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 9 yds to the SJSU 25Similar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
80.0%
Dino Beslagic punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tony Freeman at the WSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3189% → 87%
Q4 1:56
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+11
87.2%
Dean Janikowski punt for 44 yds , Matthew Coleman returns for 11 yds to the SJSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 24TD9 plays · 72 yds · 1:2025% → 93%
Q4 1:27
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+5
73.3%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 5 yds to the SJSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+31
68.9%
Emmett Brown pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 31 yds to the WSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+20
7.1%
TreyShun Hurry 20 Yd pass from Emmett Brown (Emmett Brown Pass to Nick Nash for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 25FG5 plays · 40 yds · 0:2518% → 65%
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+32
14.8%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 32 yds to the SJSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 26INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
WSUDrive 27INT2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
WSUDrive 28TD5 plays · 25 yds · 15:0066% → 88%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
65.6%
Washington State Penalty, Illegal Block (Rodrick Tialavea) to the SJSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:26
TreyShun Hurry 20 Yd pass from Emmett Brown (Emmett Brown Pass to Nick Nash for Two-Point Conversion)
-62.4
FG · Q4 0:00
Dean Janikowski 52 Yd Field Goal
+38.2
TD · Q4 4:56
Dylan Paine 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+29.7