San José State

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1563rd
  Defense+0.0767th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.7%50th
  Defense40.8%65th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3991st
  Defense+1.1975th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.0321st
  Defense−0.0279th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2972nd
  Defense+0.1559th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.1%38th
  Defense44.7%73rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.5%67th
  Defense32.8%45th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.469th
  Defense2.8459th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense26.1%5th
  Defense18.9%41st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.1%81st
  Defense15.8%42nd

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what San José State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   AF
2. W
   UNM
3. W
   SDSU
4. W
   UNLV
5. W
   HAW
6. W
   NEV
7. W
   BOIS
8. L
   BALL

Bars above the line: better than expected for San José State.

Players, 2020

1. Nick StarkelQB240 plays · +0.054 pts/play · 116th of 212 QBs
   0.24WAR−0.28 to 0.76
2. Kairee RobinsonRB87 plays · +0.137 pts/play · 148th of 338 RBs
   0.22WAR0.16 to 0.28
3. Tre WalkerWR64 plays · +0.125 pts/play · 55th of 409 WRs
   0.15WAR0.05 to 0.25
4. Tyler NevensRB62 plays · +0.117 pts/play · 223rd of 338 RBs
   0.14WAR0.06 to 0.20
5. Bailey GaitherWR59 plays · +0.100 pts/play · 100th of 409 WRs
   0.11WAR0.02 to 0.21
6. Nick NashWR36 plays · +0.103 pts/play · 218th of 409 WRs
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.11
7. Isaiah HamiltonWR20 plays · +0.147 pts/play · 261st of 409 WRs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.08
8. Derrick Deese Jr.TE31 plays · +0.065 pts/play · 25th of 191 TEs
   0.04WAR−0.02 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares San José State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  39839894th of 127Roster talent: 398, 94th of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  132132105th of 127Recruiting: 132, 105th of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  54%54%84th of 127Returning production: 54%, 84th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +0.1+0.169th of 127SP+ rating: +0.1, 69th of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than San José State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.18 of the 0.22 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at UNMQ2 0:36 4th & 2 at UNM 13, down 7Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−4.9 pts
2. at UNMQ2 1:40 4th & 9 at UNM 26, down 7Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−3.8 pts
3. vs HAWQ4 9:25 4th & 5 at HAW 28, down 18Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−2.8 pts
4. vs BOISQ4 9:24 4th & 3 at BOIS 42, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.3 pts
5. at UNMQ3 14:10 4th & 4 at UNM 35, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
6. vs BOISQ2 0:50 4th & 1 at BOIS 15, up 13Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
7. vs BALLQ2 12:24 4th & 3 at BALL 47, down 27Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
8. vs AFQ4 5:18 4th & 3 at AF 12, up 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

2nd of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up San José State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   AF
2. W

   UNM
3. W

   SDSU
4. W

   UNLV
5. W

   HAW
6. W

   NEV
7. W

   BOIS
8. L

   BALL

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at San José State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.83
• Clock+0.01
• Timeouts+0.05
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.64

Game by game

• AFW 17-6 vs AF33% → 98%Before kickoff −17 · On the field +65: Scoreboard +47, Timeouts +2
• UNMW 38-21 at UNM17% → 2%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −15: Scoreboard −23, Possession & field position +1
• SDSUW 28-17 at SDSU23% → 98%Before kickoff −27 · On the field +74: Scoreboard +60, Clock +4
• UNLVW 34-17 vs UNLV83% → 99%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +22
• HAWW 35-24 vs HAW44% → 5%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −48, Possession & field position −1
• NEVW 30-20 vs NEV41% → 97%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts +2
• BOISW 34-20 vs BOIS30% → 99%Before kickoff −20 · On the field +68: Scoreboard +48, Timeouts +2
• BALLL 13-34 vs BALL71% → 0%Before kickoff +21 · On the field −71: Scoreboard −64, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from San José State's side.

Closest call

SJSU 38-21 UNM (2020) - San José State dropped to a 0.9% win probability before pulling it out.