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AF

Air Force 6 at San José State 17

SJSU
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Elijah Fischer punt for 36 yds, downed at the AFA 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Home team on offense+0.6Pregame prior−13.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:48: Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +16.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:07: Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 17 — SJSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:43: Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 11 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +13.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:16: Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 34 yds for a TD SCHUETTPELZ-ROH kick attempt good, PENALTY SJSU offside (WEBB, Tre) 2 yards to the SJSU1, NO PLAY. (Two-Point Conversion failed) — AF win probability +13.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:16: Brice Honaker kickoff for 60 yds , Shamar Garrett return for 15 yds to the 50 yard line SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the SJSt 10 — SJSU win probability +6.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:45SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:51SJSU 4th & 2 at AF 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:34AF 4th & 8 at SJSU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:45AF 4th & 5 at AF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:22AF 4th & 2 at AF 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:36AF 4th & 1 at SJSU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    57.1%−2.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−8.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:00AF 4th & 4 at SJSU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:36AF 4th & 6 at AF 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:57SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:18SJSU 4th & 3 at AF 12, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.8%−0.8
    86% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−6.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:27AF 4th & 16 at AF 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:50SJSU 4th & 4 at AF 45, up 11
    Close callPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 6:48SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:43SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:16AF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    20.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1533% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
32.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 5 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+2
32.7%
Shamar Garrett run for 2 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
33.2%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
33.2%
Elijah Fischer punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2FUMBLE
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:3567% → 66%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
33.3%
Timothy Jackson run for 6 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
33.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
33.6%
Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
33.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
33.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+7
34.2%
Kadin Remsberg run for 7 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
34.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 38Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
34.3%
Kadin Remsberg run for no gain to the SJSt 38 Kadin Remsberg fumbled, recovered by SJSt Cade HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
35.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
35.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 8 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-5
36.0%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+7
35.9%
Kairee Robinson run for 7 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
36.0%
Nick Nash run for 7 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+2
36.1%
Nick Nash run for 2 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 1
OPP 28
-1
35.9%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 2
OPP 29
0
35.6%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:3864% → 63%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
36.4%
Matthew Murla run for 2 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+9
36.4%
Brandon Lewis run for 9 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
36.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+11
36.1%
Brandon Lewis run for 11 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
35.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon Lewis, broken up by Kyle HarmonSimilar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
36.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
36.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon Lewis, broken up by Nehemiah SheltonSimilar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
37.4%
Joseph Carlson punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Bailey Gaither at the SJSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:2838% → 39%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
38.4%
STARKEL, Nick pass incomplete to GAITHER, Bailey, PENALTY AF pass interference (PALM, Elisha) 15 yards to the SJSU28, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
38.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 10 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
39.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
39.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Shamar Garrett for 3 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+3
38.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 3 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
38.9%
Elijah Fischer punt for 36 yds, downed at the AFA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0762% → 60%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
38.1%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
38.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+1
39.1%
Timothy Jackson run for 1 yd to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
39.6%
Joseph Carlson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Bailey Gaither at the SJSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:5641% → 42%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
41.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 13 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
42.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 10 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
43.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds to the AFA 30 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Kairee Robinson) to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+2
41.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+4
42.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 4 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 14
OPP 39
0
41.6%
Nick Starkel pass intercepted Elisha Palm return for no gain to the AFA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8DOWNS
21 plays · 87 yds · 8:1060% → 62%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
39.9%
Jordan Gidrey run for 12 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
40.0%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+1
40.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+5
40.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 5 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+19
40.5%
CJ McNeal run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
50
+3
37.5%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
37.6%
Brandon Lewis run for 8 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
37.7%
Brandon Lewis run for 5 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+2
37.0%
Brandon Lewis run for 2 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+8
38.0%
Timothy Jackson run for 8 yds to the SJSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
37.2%
Brandon Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+6
37.7%
Brandon Lewis run for 6 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+17
38.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 17 yds to the SJSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
36.6%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
36.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
38.4%
Jordan Gidrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9END OF HALF
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:5143% → 43%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
43.4%
Kairee Robinson run for 6 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+3
43.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the SJSt 11Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+3
42.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tyler Nevens for 3 yds to the SJSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5459% → 58%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
41.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+9
40.7%
Timothy Jackson run for 9 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
39.8%
Matthew Murla run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
39.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+3
41.1%
Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 4
OPP 49
+2
42.4%
Joseph Carlson punt for 35 yds , Bailey Gaither returns for 2 yds to the SJSt 47 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive holding (8 Yards) to the SJSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 4:3046% → 70%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
46.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 12 yds to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
46.5%
Isaiah Holiness run for 3 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
46.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 4 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
46.6%
Nick Nash run for 4 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
48.1%
Isaiah Holiness run for 4 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+52
49.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 52 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
53.5%
Nick Nash run for 5 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+1
53.8%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the AFA 7Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
70.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1237% → 34%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.4%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
63.1%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 2 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
65.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon LewisSimilar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
66.5%
Joseph Carlson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bailey Gaither at the SJSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:3070% → 70%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
69.8%
Isaiah Holiness run for 4 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+8
72.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 8 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
72.3%
Isaiah Holiness run for no gain to the SJSt 47Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
71.9%
Nick Nash run for 1 yd to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
71.7%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey Gaither, broken up by Elisha PalmSimilar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
69.7%
Elijah Fischer punt for 47 yds, downed at the AFA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:3432% → 32%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
67.8%
Timothy Jackson run for 6 yds to the AFA 11Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+2
68.1%
Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 14 Timothy Jackson fumbled, forced by Kyle Harmon, recovered by SJSt Tre JenkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 1:2477% → 90%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
76.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 17Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+6
76.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 6 yds to the AFA 11Similar
Q3 0:43
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
90.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 11 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:2715% → 27%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
84.6%
Jordan Gidrey run for 4 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-1
84.2%
Jordan Gidrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+7
86.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
86.1%
Brandon Lewis run for 18 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
86.1%
Brandon Lewis run for 3 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+34
73.1%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 34 yds for a TD SCHUETTPELZ-ROH kick attempt good, PENALTY SJSU offside (WEBB, Tre) 2 yards to the SJSU1, NO PLAY. (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17FG
19 plays · 78 yds · 7:5082% → 93%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
81.8%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 8Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+14
81.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 14 yds to the SJSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
82.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+14
82.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 14 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
85.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 33Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+15
84.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 15 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
86.7%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, delay of game (Nick Starkel) to the SJSt 43Similar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
86.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+14
86.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 14 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+13
87.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 13 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
89.4%
Isaiah Holiness run for 1 yd to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
90.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey Gaither, broken up by Grant DonaldsonSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+10
89.5%
STARKEL, Nick pass incomplete to GAITHER, Bailey, PENALTY AF holding (EURE, David) 10 yards to the AF19, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
90.2%
Isaiah Holiness run for 5 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+1
90.8%
Isaiah Holiness run for 1 yd to the AFA 13Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+1
92.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the AFA 12Similar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+30
93.4%
Matt Mercurio 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:517% → 6%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
92.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
93.3%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon LewisSimilar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
94.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Daniel MorrisSimilar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
94.2%
Joseph Carlson punt for 53 yds, downed at the SJSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:2794% → 96%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+21
93.9%
Kairee Robinson run for 6 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Alec Mock) to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
95.0%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 48Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+3
95.3%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+4
95.5%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
96.4%
Elijah Fischer punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ben Peterson at the AFA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20MISSED FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 1:573% → 4%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
97.3%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 9 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 1
OWN 24
0
96.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Kyle Patterson, broken up by Tre WhiteSimilar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
97.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
97.4%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Kyle Patterson, broken up by Jordan CobbsSimilar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
97.4%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 7 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+15
97.2%
Matthew Murla run for 15 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Kyle PattersonSimilar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
97.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 7 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+6
96.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 6 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
96.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+5
95.8%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 5 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+3
96.3%
Bo Gross run for 3 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+45
96.0%
Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:2098% → 98%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
97.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 26Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 11
OWN 26
-1
97.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:48
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
+16.6
TD · Q3 0:43
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 11 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)
+13.4
TD · Q4 13:16
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 34 yds for a TD SCHUETTPELZ-ROH kick attempt good, PENALTY SJSU offside (WEBB, Tre) 2 yards to the SJSU1, NO PLAY. (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com