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UNLV

UNLV 17 at San José State 34

SJSU
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:58 · Elijah Fischer punt for 48 yds, downed at the UNLV 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+15.8Home team on offense+14.7Score differential+6.4Garbage-time factor+5.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:20: Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:30: Justin Rogers pass complete to Kyle Williams for 19 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +6.3 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:28: Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:01: Charles Williams run for 4 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +12.1 pts (now 24%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:05: Kairee Robinson run for 12 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNLV made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 14:30SJSU 4th & 7 at UNLV 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:56UNLV 4th & 7 at SJSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:39UNLV 4th & 17 at UNLV 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:22SJSU 4th & 12 at UNLV 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:20UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:36UNLV 4th & 12 at UNLV 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:10UNLV 4th & 15 at UNLV 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:58SJSU 4th & 15 at SJSU 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:37UNLV 4th & 6 at UNLV 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:46SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:30UNLV 4th & 27 at UNLV 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:07SJSU 4th & 8 at UNLV 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−2.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:45UNLV 4th & 2 at UNLV 32, down 17
    Close callPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:11SJSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:20SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:30UNLV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:28SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:01UNLV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:05SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3083% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
83.4%
Nick Nash run for 6 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
83.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 3 yds Tre Walker fumbled, forced by Jacoby Windmon, recovered by SJSt Tre WalkerSimilar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+2
83.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 2 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q1 14:30
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
83.3%
Elijah Fischer punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:5717% → 19%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
82.8%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
82.7%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+6
82.5%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Charles Williams for 6 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
82.4%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 7 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+12
82.0%
Charles Williams run for 12 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+34
81.9%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 34 yds to the SJSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
81.6%
Max Gilliam run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 15Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
81.4%
Charles Williams run for no gain to the SJSt 15Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+4
81.1%
Max Gilliam run for 4 yds to the SJSt 11Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
80.9%
Daniel Gutierrez 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 1:3981% → 82%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
80.8%
Nick Nash run for 12 yds to the SJSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
80.7%
Nick Nash pass complete to Billy Bob Humphreys for 7 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+4
81.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
80.8%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+15
80.5%
STARKEL, Nick LL pass incomplete to WALKER, Tre (LEWIS,Aaron), PENALTY UNLV pass interference (LEWIS,Aaron) 15 yards to the UNLV41, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
82.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 41 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2518% → 18%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
81.6%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Noah Bean for 1 yd to the UNLV 23Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-8
81.5%
Max Gilliam sacked by Viliami Fehoko for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 15Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 17
OWN 15
0
81.7%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Charles WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 17
OWN 15
0
81.8%
Charlton Butt punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bailey Gaither at the SJSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 4:1282% → 82%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
81.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 21 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
82.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-15
81.9%
STARKEL, Nick LL pass incomplete to HOLINESS,Isaiah (SALU,Malakai), PENALTY SJSU personal foul (NAVARRO, Jaime) 15 yards to the UNLV43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 22
OPP 43
+1
81.3%
Nick Starkel run for 1 yd to the UNLV 42Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 21
OPP 42
+31
81.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 31 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
81.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the UNLV 8Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-15
81.4%
STARKEL, Nick middle pass complete to WALKER, Tre for 4 yards to the UNLV4 (JACKSON,Bryce), PENALTY SJSU pass interference (HAMILTON, Isaia) 15 yards to the UNLV23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 22
OPP 23
+4
81.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 4 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 18
OPP 19
+6
80.5%
Nick Starkel run for 6 yds to the UNLV 13Similar
Q1 0:22
4TH & 12
OPP 13
+30
82.0%
Matt Mercurio 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5618% → 18%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
82.0%
Courtney Reese run for 2 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+3
82.0%
Max Gilliam run for 3 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
82.2%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Noah Bean, broken up by Tre WebbSimilar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 5
OWN 19
+6
82.5%
Tanner Brown punt for 55 yds , Bailey Gaither returns for 6 yds to the SJSt 25 UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Kue Olotoa) to the SJSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:4883% → 87%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
82.9%
Kairee Robinson run for 11 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+28
83.0%
Nick Nash run for 28 yds to the UNLV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
83.0%
Nick Nash run for 9 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+1
83.0%
Nick Nash run for 1 yd to the UNLV 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
83.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the UNLV 3Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
83.0%
STARKEL, Nick middle pass incomplete to DEESE, JR, Derr, PENALTY UNLV roughing passer (UASIKE,Kolo) 1 yards to the UNLV2, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:5015% → 21%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.4%
Charles Williams run for no gain to the UNLV 35Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
85.4%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+10
85.4%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Kyle Williams for 10 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
85.3%
WILLIAMS,C. rush left for 3 yards to the SJSU48 (HARMON, Kyle), PENALTY UNLV illegal shift (REESE,Courtney) 5 yards to the UNLV44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+3
85.8%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+15
85.7%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 15 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
85.3%
Charles Williams run for no gain to the SJSt 38Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
85.5%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Kyle Williams for 7 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+12
85.3%
Charles Williams run for 12 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
79.0%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Kyle Williams for 19 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-23
83.3%
Nick Starkel pass intercepted Tre Caine return for 23 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3519% → 18%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
80.7%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Kyle Williams for 6 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
80.1%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-10
80.2%
WILLIAMS,C. rush right for 3 yards to the 50 yardline, out-of-bounds (WHITE, Tre), PENALTY UNLV holding (OLUWASEUN,J.) 10 yards to the UNLV37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 12
OWN 37
0
81.9%
Justin Rogers pass incomplete to Kyle Williams, broken up by Tre WebbSimilar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 12
OWN 37
0
82.2%
Charlton Butt punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Bailey Gaither at the SJSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:0382% → 90%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
82.2%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+10
82.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 10 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
83.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-1
82.8%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 42Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+27
81.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 27 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
83.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey Gaither, broken up by Aaron LewisSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
83.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 6 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+15
83.6%
NASH, Nick LL pass incomplete to WALKER, Tre, PENALTY UNLV pass interference (WILLIAMS,Nohl) 15 yards to the UNLV10, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
84.2%
STARKEL, Nick RR pass incomplete to WALKER, Tre, PENALTY UNLV pass interference (JACKSON,Bryce) 8 yards to the UNLV2, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:1912% → 11%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.1%
Justin Rogers run for 6 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-7
87.9%
Justin Rogers sacked by Tysyn Parker for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 24Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+11
89.3%
Justin Rogers run for 11 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
88.5%
Justin Rogers pass incomplete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr.Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
88.6%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:5012% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.3%
Charles Williams run for no gain to the UNLV 25Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.5%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Noah Bean for 9 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
88.0%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
88.0%
Justin Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
88.7%
Justin Rogers pass incomplete to Zyell GriffinSimilar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-4
88.9%
Justin Rogers sacked by Christian Webb for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 31Similar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 15
OWN 31
+10
89.4%
Charlton Butt punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 47 , Bailey Gaither returns for 10 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5590% → 89%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
90.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 7
50
0
90.2%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 7
50
-8
89.8%
Nick Starkel sacked by Jacoby Windmon for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 42Similar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
88.8%
Elijah Fischer punt for 48 yds, downed at the UNLV 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 6:3211% → 24%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
89.1%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
89.4%
Justin Rogers pass incomplete to Charles WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+8
89.6%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 8 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.2%
Justin Rogers pass incomplete to Zyell GriffinSimilar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-3
89.4%
Charles Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 17Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+16
89.7%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Kyle Williams for 16 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
88.8%
UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Julio Garcia) to the UNLV 18Similar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
89.3%
Justin Rogers pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
89.5%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Kyle Williams for 7 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+7
89.3%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Noah Bean for 7 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
89.0%
Charles Williams run for 10 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
88.8%
Justin Rogers sacked by Cade Hall for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 41Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+53
89.2%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 53 yds to the SJSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
87.7%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the SJSt 4Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
75.6%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 1:5683% → 94%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
83.4%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (Jesse Chamberlain) to the SJSt 24Similar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+7
83.1%
Nick Nash run for 7 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+7
83.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 7 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+28
84.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 28 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
85.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 22 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
94.2%
Kairee Robinson run for 12 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:289% → 8%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.2%
Justin Rogers sacked by Cade Hall for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 20Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
91.5%
Justin Rogers pass complete to Noah Bean for 5 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.7%
Justin Rogers run for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
92.0%
Charlton Butt punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bailey Gaither at the SJSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1494% → 94%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
94.4%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Tre Walker, broken up by Aaron LewisSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
94.4%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
94.2%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr., broken up by Vic ViramontesSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
93.7%
Elijah Fischer punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tyleek Collins at the UNLV 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:118% → 7%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
92.0%
Courtney Reese run for 19 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
91.4%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 6 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
91.0%
Courtney Reese run for 6 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
91.5%
Charles Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 43Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 14
OPP 43
-8
91.8%
Max Gilliam sacked by Viliami Fehoko for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 49Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 22
OWN 49
-5
92.6%
Max Gilliam sacked by Cade Hall for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 27
OWN 44
0
93.0%
Charlton Butt punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bailey Gaither at the SJSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:1195% → 97%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
95.1%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (Jaime Navarro) to the SJSt 15Similar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+14
95.0%
Nick Nash run for 14 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-10
95.3%
NASH, Nick rush up middle for 33 yards to the UNLV38 (JACKSON,Bryce;FAUOLO SR.,G.), PENALTY SJSU holding (ROBBINS, Trevor) 10 yards to the SJSU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
95.0%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Shamar GarrettSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+12
95.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 12 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
95.7%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 32Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+19
95.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 19 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
96.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the UNLV 48Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+36
96.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 36 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
96.5%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
96.7%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr.Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
96.6%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr., broken up by Bryce JacksonSimilar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
97.4%
Matt Mercurio 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:173% → 2%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
97.2%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
97.2%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Courtney Reese, broken up by Viliami FehokoSimilar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+3
97.8%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Noah Bean for 3 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
97.9%
Charlton Butt punt for 44 yds, downed at the SJSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22END OF GAME
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:3598% → 99%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
97.8%
Nick Nash run for 17 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
98.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 42Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+4
98.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+11
98.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 11 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+35
98.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 35 yds to the UNLV 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 9Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:01
Charles Williams run for 4 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
-12.1
TD · Q3 2:05
Kairee Robinson run for 12 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q2 6:30
Justin Rogers pass complete to Kyle Williams for 19 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
-6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com