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SJSU

San José State 28 at San Diego State 17

SDSU
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2020 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:07 · Elijah Fischer punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Pregame prior+25.3Home team on offense−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:35: Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 29%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 54%).
  2. TD · Q3 2:26: Nick Nash pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +23.3 pts (now 57%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:30: Greg Bell run for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +22.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:10: Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +30.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:59: Kairee Robinson run for 10 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST down — SJSU win probability +15.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 14:54SJSU 4th & 2 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:15SDSU 4th & 7 at SDSU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:07SJSU 4th & 4 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:17SDSU 4th & 13 at SJSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:10SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00SDSU 4th & 12 at SJSU 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:53SJSU 4th & 12 at SJSU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:53SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:46SDSU 4th & 13 at SJSU 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:54SDSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−1.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−7.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:11SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−1.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:30SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−2.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:00SDSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%−7.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−8.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:47SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−5.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:24SDSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−1.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 8:53SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:35SJSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:26SJSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:30SDSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:10SJSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:33SJSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
76.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 4 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+9
76.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 9 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
76.9%
ROBINSON,Kairee rush for no gain to the SJSU42 (BARFIELD, C.), PENALTY SJSU holding 10 yards to the SJSU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 20
OWN 32
0
76.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 20
OWN 32
-1
76.9%
Nick Nash run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 31Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 21
OWN 31
+19
76.9%
Nick Nash run for 19 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:54
4TH & 2
50
0
76.9%
Elijah Fischer punt for 48 yds, downed at the SDSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
76.3%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+3
76.3%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 7
OWN 5
0
76.2%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 7
OWN 5
+19
76.1%
Tanner Kuljian punt for 70 yds , Bailey Gaither returns for 19 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
75.7%
Nick Nash pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
75.8%
Nick Nash run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 4
50
0
75.7%
Nick Nash pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 4
50
0
75.9%
Elijah Fischer punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4FG
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:4976% → 75%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
75.8%
Greg Bell run for 8 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+10
75.9%
Carson Baker run for 10 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+51
75.9%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 51 yds to the SJSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
76.3%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SJSt 10Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 6
OPP 10
-4
76.3%
Carson Baker run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 14Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 10
OPP 14
-5
76.2%
BELL, Greg rush for 8 yards to the SJSU6 (WEBB, Tre;HARMON, Kyle), PENALTY SDSU illegal shift 5 yards to the SJSU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 15
OPP 19
+2
76.0%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 13
OPP 17
+34
75.3%
Matt Araiza 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
75.6%
Nick Nash pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 8 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+1
75.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 39Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
75.1%
Nick Nash pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr., broken up by Tariq ThompsonSimilar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
75.6%
Elijah Fischer punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 4:5475% → 74%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
75.2%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 4 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
75.3%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+9
75.0%
Carson Baker pass complete to Greg Bell for 9 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
75.6%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 2 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
75.8%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+11
75.5%
Carson Baker pass complete to BJ Busbee for 11 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
76.0%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
76.0%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-5
75.8%
Carson Baker sacked by Viliami Fehoko for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
73.5%
Tanner Kuljian punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
74.2%
Kairee Robinson run for 7 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
73.8%
Nick Nash pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-9
74.3%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 9 yards to the SJSt 18 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
75.2%
Elijah Fischer punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 5:0575% → 79%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
50
-2
75.0%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-2
74.3%
Carson Baker pass complete to Kobe Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+23
73.5%
Carson Baker pass complete to Kobe Smith for 23 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
75.4%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+4
75.4%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+4
74.9%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SJSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
75.4%
Chance Bell run for 11 yds to the SJSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
75.4%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the SJSt 3Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
75.4%
Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 8:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.2%
Carson Baker run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
78.9%
Nick Nash run for 6 yds to the SJSt 31Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
78.4%
Nick Nash pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
78.9%
Nick Nash pass incomplete to Tyler NevensSimilar
Q2 8:53
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
79.5%
Elijah Fischer punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
79.4%
Greg Bell run for 7 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+3
80.2%
Carson Baker pass complete to Greg Bell for 3 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
80.2%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+9
80.1%
Carson Baker pass complete to Greg Bell for 9 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
80.3%
Carson Baker sacked by Kyle Harmon and Jay Kakiva for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 15
50
+2
79.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 13
OPP 48
0
79.1%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
78.2%
Tanner Kuljian punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bailey Gaither at the SJSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 3:3620% → 29%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
79.7%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 6Similar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+22
79.9%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 22 yds to the SJSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
79.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 10 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
78.8%
Nick Nash pass complete to Tre Walker for 9 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 1
OWN 47
-4
77.9%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+5
78.8%
Nick Nash pass complete to Tyler Nevens for 5 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+32
78.3%
Nick Nash pass complete to Tre Walker for 32 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
76.9%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 10 yds to the SDSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
76.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 9 yds to the SDSt 1Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
78.7%
Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 4Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.6%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
72.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 56 yds · 0:0072% → 73%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
71.7%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+6
71.9%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
72.0%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+10
71.8%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 10 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
73.7%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+24
73.8%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 24 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
74.8%
Chance Bell run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 13
OPP 32
-10
74.1%
BAKER, Carson pass incomplete to BYRD, Jordan, PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SJSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 23
OPP 42
+21
72.9%
Carson Baker pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 21 yds to the SJSt 21Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
73.8%
Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the SJSt 20Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
72.7%
Carson Baker run for no gain to the SJSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14INT
7 plays · 52 yds · 0:0030% → 34%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.4%
Nick Nash pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
70.7%
Nick Nash run for 10 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
70.0%
Nick Nash pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 3 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+9
69.6%
Nick Nash pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 9 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+27
68.2%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 27 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
66.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-5
65.6%
Nick Nash pass intercepted Tariq Thompson return for 5 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
71.8%
BELL, Greg rush for 5 yards to the SDSU33 (PARKER, Tysyn;HARMON, Kyle), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+5
71.3%
Carson Baker pass complete to Kobe Smith for 5 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+9
71.1%
Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
71.0%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Chance BellSimilar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
69.9%
Tanner Kuljian punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:0932% → 57%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
67.7%
Nick Nash pass complete to Tyler Nevens for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 37Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+20
69.0%
Nick Nash run for 5 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
65.6%
Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 13 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
64.4%
Nick Nash pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr.Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+22
64.5%
Nick Nash pass complete to Tre Walker for 22 yds to the SDSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
64.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SDSt 6Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
64.0%
Nick Nash run for 3 yds to the SDSt 3Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
42.6%
Nick Nash pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:4951% → 79%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
51.1%
Greg Bell run for 13 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
53.7%
Greg Bell run for 8 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+3
55.4%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+26
55.3%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 26 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
57.7%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+11
56.5%
Carson Baker pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 11 yds to the SJSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.3%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
72.2%
Nick Nash run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 23Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
72.5%
Nick Nash pass complete to Tre Walker for 3 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
73.4%
Nick Nash pass complete to Tyler Nevens for no gain to the SJSt 26Similar
Q4 14:30
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
74.5%
Elijah Fischer punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · -22 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
76.4%
Carson Baker run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 38Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+45
75.9%
Carson Baker run for 45 yds to the SDSt 17 Carson Baker fumbled, recovered by SJSt Viliami Fehoko , return for no gain to the SDSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:3435% → 65%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
65.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 14 yds to the SDSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
34.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21INT
13 plays · 47 yds · 3:0548% → 44%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
47.7%
Carson Baker pass complete to Greg Bell for 8 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
50.5%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
49.8%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
50
0
51.0%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Isaiah Richardson, broken up by Malik WelchSimilar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
50
+9
50.4%
Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
51.2%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the SJSt 41Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+6
43.8%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+24
49.6%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 24 yds to the SJSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
49.7%
Chance Bell run for no gain to the SJSt 11Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-4
49.7%
Carson Baker sacked by Cade Hall for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 15Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 14
OPP 15
0
43.7%
Carson Baker pass intercepted, touchback. Tre Jenkins return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:1272% → 75%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
28.3%
Kairee Robinson run for 10 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
26.8%
Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+1
26.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 35Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-4
27.0%
Nick Nash run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 31Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
24.8%
Elijah Fischer punt for 42 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for no gain to the SDSt 27 Jordan Byrd fumbled, forced by Tre Walker, recovered by SJSt Rico TolefreeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:5985% → 98%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
15.5%
Nick Nash run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 30 Nick Nash fumbled, recovered by SJStSimilar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+3
15.8%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+12
17.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 12 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
15.5%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the SDSt 14Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+14
2.4%
Nick Nash run for 14 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
4.1%
Carson Baker pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 7 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+10
4.5%
Carson Baker pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 10 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
4.6%
Carson Baker pass complete to Greg Bell for 4 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+1
4.8%
Carson Baker pass complete to Greg Bell for 1 yd to the SJSt 38Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
4.5%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
4.0%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Chance BellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
2.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:10
Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)
-30.7
TD · Q3 2:26
Nick Nash pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)
-23.3
TD · Q4 14:30
Greg Bell run for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
+22.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com