San José State

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1548th
  Defense+0.1642nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.2%46th
  Defense43.6%39th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2053rd
  Defense+1.0986th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0221st
  Defense+0.255th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2870th
  Defense+0.0396th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense44.5%24th
  Defense50.0%22nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense37.4%78th
  Defense28.9%85th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.5921st
  Defense3.2016th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.6%35th
  Defense15.8%12th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.3%30th
  Defense1.5%19th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what San José State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   UND
2. L
   AUB
3. L
   MINN
4. L
   NEV
5. W
   UNLV
6. W
   WYO
7. L
   NAVY
8. L
   CSU
9. L
   FRES
10. L
    HAW
11. L
    USU
12. L
    SDSU

Bars above the line: better than expected for San José State.

Players, 2014

1. Joe GrayQB255 plays · +0.259 pts/play · 86th of 199 QBs
   1.24WAR0.80 to 1.68
2. Tyler ErvinRB147 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 47th of 350 RBs
   0.35WAR0.23 to 0.48
3. Tim CrawleyWR60 plays · +0.115 pts/play · 154th of 469 WRs
   0.13WAR0.07 to 0.19
4. Blake JurichQB51 plays · +0.130 pts/play · 175th of 199 QBs
   0.12WAR0.04 to 0.20
5. Austin LopezPK18 plays · +0.256 pts/play · 77th of 114 kickers
   0.09WAR0.03 to 0.15
6. Hansell WilsonWR36 plays · +0.127 pts/play · 242nd of 469 WRs
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.13
7. Michael CarrizosaP26 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 49th of 94 punters
   0.08WAR0.04 to 0.13
8. Jarrod LawsonRB52 plays · +0.080 pts/play · 234th of 350 RBs
   0.08WAR0.04 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares San José State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than San José State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.08 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at USUQ2 2:27 4th & 1 at SJSU 29, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it1.6 pts
2. vs HAWQ3 3:54 4th & 3 at HAW 7, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it1.3 pts
3. at SDSUQ2 7:37 4th & 1 at SJSU 20, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.9 pts
4. vs NEVQ4 6:09 4th & 11 at NEV 36, down 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.7 pts
5. at MINNQ2 3:10 4th & 9 at MINN 41, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.5 pts
6. vs HAWQ4 7:27 4th & 4 at HAW 19, down 13Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)0.5 pts
7. vs UNDQ3 15:00 4th & 1 at SJSU 34, up 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.4 pts
8. vs NEVQ2 12:02 4th & 12 at NEV 36, down 7Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

118th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up San José State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7. Based on 11 of 12 games; one has no play-by-play to score.

1. W

   UND
2. L

   AUB
3. L

   MINN
4. L

   NEV
5. W

   UNLV
6. W

   WYO
7. L

   NAVY
8. L

   CSU
9. L

   FRES
10. L

    HAW
11. L

    USU
12. L

    SDSU

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at San José State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.90
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.19
• Timeouts+0.16
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.03

Game by game

• UNDW 42-10 vs UND96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +6
• AUBL 13-59 at AUB3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −4
• MINNL 7-24 at MINN30% → 1%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −29: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts +1
• NEVL 10-21 vs NEV41% → 5%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −47, Clock −2
• UNLVW 33-10 vs UNLV77% → 100%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +26
• WYOW 27-20 at WYO50% → 77%Before kickoff 0 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +35, Timeouts +20
• NAVYL 31-41 at NAVY25% → 4%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −22: Scoreboard −27, Timeouts −1
• FRESL 24-38 at FRES41% → 1%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −37, Timeouts −2
• HAWL 0-13 vs HAW77% → 3%Before kickoff +27 · On the field −74: Scoreboard −62, Possession & field position +2
• USUL 7-41 at USU27% → 0%Before kickoff −23 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −29, Timeouts −1
• SDSUL 7-38 at SDSU17% → 0%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −20

Points of win probability, from San José State's side.

Closest call

SJSU 38-21 UNM (2020) - San José State dropped to a 0.9% win probability before pulling it out.