2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreSJSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:12 · Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:29: JURICH, Blake pass incomplete to WINSTON, Tyler, PENALTY MINN offside (Amaefula, M.) 5 yards to the SJ25, NO PLAY. — SJSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:20: David Cobb run for 14 yds to the SJSt 8 for a 1ST down — MINN win probability +4.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:00: Chris Streveler 1 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick) — MINN win probability +5.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 6:25: David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Minn 12 — MINN win probability +6.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:21: David Cobb run for 16 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK) — MINN win probability +9.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 6SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 12:31MINN 4th & 4 at SJSU 21, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snapGo for it68.0%47% to convertField goalTheir call68.0%−<0.174% to makePunt67.6%−0.4average punt
- Q1 12:31SJSU 4th & 10 at MINN 42, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snapGo for it31.9%−<0.130% to convertField goal31.9%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call31.9%average punt
- Q2 15:00MINN 4th & 12 at MINN 33, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snapGo for it65.7%−1.023% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.7%average punt
- Q2 13:47SJSU 4th & 7 at SJSU 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snapGo for it31.8%−0.537% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.3%average punt
- Q2 11:25MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 48, up 3Close callPunted · 67.0% before the snapGo for it67.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.7%−0.6average punt
- Q2 8:16SJSU 4th & 3 at MINN 46, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.5%52% to convertField goal32.8%−1.823% to makePunt33.7%−0.8average punt
- Q2 3:10SJSU 4th & 9 at MINN 41, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 32.9% before the snapGo for it32.7%32% to convertField goalTheir call32.1%−0.532% to makePunt32.1%−0.6average punt
- Q3 12:29MINN 4th & 9 at SJSU 31, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.9% before the snapGo for it78.4%−0.532% to convertField goalTheir call78.8%54% to makePunt77.6%−1.3average punt
- Q3 6:25MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 16, up 10Close callPunted · 80.4% before the snapGo for it81.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.5%−0.5average punt
- Q3 1:46SJSU 4th & 9 at MINN 34, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snapGo for it16.8%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call16.9%47% to makePunt15.9%−1.0average punt
- Q4 15:00MINN 4th & 8 at SJSU 39, up 10Close callPunted · 85.1% before the snapGo for it85.4%34% to convertField goal85.0%−0.536% to makePuntTheir call85.0%−0.4average punt
- Q4 11:38SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 35, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snapGo for it12.3%−1.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 3:53MINN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.5%97% to makeGo for two71.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:40SJSU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.9%97% to makeGo for two32.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:00MINN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.5%97% to makeGo for two77.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:21MINN Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSJSUDrive 1INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
MINNDrive 2FG4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5370% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT11 plays · 23 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
69.5%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Tyler Winston for 4 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+7
69.4%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Tyler Winston for 7 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
69.4%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Tyler Winston for 3 yds to the Minn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4TD9 plays · 85 yds · 4:1969% → 73%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
70.0%
David Cobb run for 7 yds to the SJSt 17 MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the SJSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1329% → 33%
Q1 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
71.5%
Blake Jurich sacked by Robert Ndondo-Lay and Hendrick Ekpe for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 23Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+46
71.9%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Tim Crawley for 46 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
70.3%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Tim Crawley for 5 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+27
67.2%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Tyler Winston for 27 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 0:4069% → 67%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 13:47
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+14
68.5%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Tyler Winston for 14 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
69.3%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 45 yds , Marcus Jones returns for no gain to the Minn 34 MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive holding (Daletavious McGhee) to the Minn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 37 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9MISSED FG11 plays · 39 yds · 5:0632% → 32%
MINNDrive 10FUMBLE8 plays · 59 yds · 0:0070% → 72%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 0
OPP 5
+4
72.1%
David Cobb run for 4 yds David Cobb fumbled, forced by Vince Buhagiar, recovered by SJSt Jimmy PruittSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11INT2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
MINNDrive 12TD8 plays · 22 yds · 0:2071% → 77%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13MISSED FG9 plays · 44 yds · 2:3179% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
80.0%
Chris Streveler pass incomplete to KJ Maye, broken up by Jimmy PruittSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14FUMBLE12 plays · 60 yds · 0:0021% → 25%
Q3 12:29
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+6
78.7%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Billy Freeman for 6 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+19
78.0%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Jarrod Lawson for 19 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+5
77.0%
MINNESOTA Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-2
75.9%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Billy Freeman for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 28Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+5
75.9%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Tyler Winston for 5 yds to the Minn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-3
75.0%
Jarrod Lawson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 8 Jarrod Lawson fumbled, forced by Damien Wilson, recovered by Minn Damien WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 6:25
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+7
81.7%
Chris Streveler run for 7 yds to the Minn 14 Chris Streveler fumbled, forced by Jimmy Pruitt, recovered by Minn Chris StrevelerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16MISSED FG6 plays · 23 yds · 2:1019% → 17%
Q3 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+22
81.4%
Jarrod Lawson run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Damarius Travis) to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 1:4685% → 85%
Q3 1:46
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+9
84.7%
Chris Streveler run for 24 yds to the MINNESOTA 40 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, personal foul (KJ Maye) to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
86.1%
Chris Streveler pass incomplete to KJ Maye, broken up by Maurice McKnightSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
85.1%
Peter Mortell punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18FUMBLE1 play · -3 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
85.8%
Blake Jurich run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 7 Blake Jurich fumbled, recovered by Minn Gaelin ElmoreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19INT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2587% → 88%
Q4 11:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+10
87.5%
Chris Streveler pass intercepted Forrest Hightower return for 10 yds to the SJSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20PUNT10 plays · 25 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
85.8%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Tyler Winston for 8 yds to the SJSt 18Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 2
OWN 18
0
86.5%
Blake Jurich pass incomplete to Tyler Winston, broken up by Briean Boddy-CalhounSimilar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+5
87.2%
CARRIZOSA, Mich punt 44 yards to the MINN38, James, Craig return to the MINN38 (BARNES, Dominic;KUH, Brad), PENALTY MINN substitution infraction 5 yards to the SJ23, 1ST DOWN SJ, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
85.6%
Blake Jurich pass complete to Tyler Winston for 7 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21TD10 plays · 61 yds · 5:4888% → 98%
Q4 9:09
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+7
87.7%
Chris Streveler pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 7 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22FUMBLE8 plays · 14 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 3:21
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-8
97.6%
Joe Gray sacked by Robert Ndondo-Lay for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 25Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+19
97.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 19 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+19
97.6%
Joe Gray sacked by Theiren Cockran for a loss of 11 yards to the SJSt 10 Joe Gray fumbled, recovered by Minn Michael Amaefula , return for 0 yards , return for 19 yds to the SJSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:21
David Cobb run for 16 yds for a TD, (Ryan Santoso KICK)
+9.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 6:25
David Cobb run for 4 yds to the Minn 12
+6.9
TD · Q2 0:00
Chris Streveler 1 Yd Run (Ryan Santoso Kick)
+5.9