San José State

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0931st
  Defense+0.0563rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense39.3%20th
  Defense42.9%33rd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1316th
  Defense+1.0693rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.0415th
  Defense+0.0840th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2657th
  Defense+0.1260th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.9%44th
  Defense49.6%23rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense23.4%10th
  Defense28.2%58th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9739th
  Defense3.1526th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.9%25th
  Defense15.5%23rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.1%42nd
  Defense15.1%38th

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what San José State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   USC
2. W
   EMU
3. W
   CP
4. L
   FRES
5. W
   HAW
6. L
   WYO

Bars above the line: better than expected for San José State.

Players, 2026

1. Luke WeaverQB172 plays · +0.065 pts/play · 95th of 192 QBs
   0.21WAR−0.05 to 0.43
2. Jabari BatesRB89 plays · +0.089 pts/play · 27th of 320 RBs
   0.15WAR0.10 to 0.20
3. Carson ClarkWR32 plays · +0.158 pts/play · 42nd of 364 WRs
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.13
4. Cooper HochWR18 plays · +0.182 pts/play · 112th of 364 WRs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.09
5. Jerry McClureWR25 plays · +0.106 pts/play · 156th of 364 WRs
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.07
6. Trajan SinatraPK9 plays · +0.225 pts/play · 19th of 82 kickers
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.06
7. Trent CarrizosaP23 plays · −0.021 pts/play · 78th of 84 punters
   −0.01WAR−0.05 to 0.03

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares San José State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  569569110th of 138Roster talent: 569, 110th of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  136136115th of 138Recruiting: 136, 115th of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  4%4%128th of 136Returning production: 4%, 128th of 136 in FBS
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −12.2−12.2114th of 138SP+ rating so far: −12.2, 114th of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than San José State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.05 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at EMUQ4 7:57 4th & 4 at EMU 49, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
2. at HAWQ2 13:36 4th & 1 at SJSU 30, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
3. vs CPQ4 11:59 4th & 4 at CP 23, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
4. vs WYOQ3 9:43 4th & 4 at WYO 4, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
5. vs FRESQ1 9:25 4th & 1 at FRES 28, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
6. vs FRESQ4 1:22 4th & 10 at SJSU 35, down 9Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.2 pts
7. at USCQ2 1:44 4th & 6 at SJSU 47, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts
8. vs FRESQ3 10:26 4th & 4 at SJSU 43, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)<0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

50th of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up San José State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   USC
2. W

   EMU
3. W

   CP
4. L

   FRES
5. W

   HAW
6. L

   WYO

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at San José State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.19
• Clock+0.17
• Timeouts−0.18
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.10

Game by game

• USCL 26-42 at USC1% → 1%Before kickoff −49 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −4
• EMUW 27-21 at EMU38% → 96%Before kickoff −12 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +53, Clock +3
• CPW 30-20 vs CP91% → 97%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +14, Possession & field position +1
• FRESL 10-26 vs FRES35% → 1%Before kickoff −15 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −39, Clock −4
• HAWW 20-16 at HAW36% → 79%Before kickoff −14 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +38, Clock +2
• WYOL 13-16 vs WYO58% → 13%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −42, Timeouts −20

Points of win probability, from San José State's side.

Closest call

SJSU 38-21 UNM (2020) - San José State dropped to a 0.9% win probability before pulling it out.