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SJSU

San José State 26 at USC 42

USC
2026 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2026 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:44 · (01:54) #49 T.Carrizosa punt 33 yards to the USC20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior+38.0Home team on offense+16.9Score differential+11.9Garbage-time factor+3.3Blowout margin+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:46: (02:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at SJS00, for 9 yards to the SJS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:46 #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown) — USC win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:30: (00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush right for 4 yards gain to the SJS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:30 #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown) — USC win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:56: (15:00) Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete deep middle to #2 J.McClure caught at USC00, for 28 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:56, 1ST DOWN #83 K.Kopa-Kaawalauole pass attempt Successful — SJSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 1%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:11: (05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short right to #0 J.Anderson caught at USC00, for 3 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:11 #36 T.Sinatra kick attempt good (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 D.Aguilera) — SJSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 1%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:45: Luke Weaver 7 Yd Run (Luke Weaver Pass to Cooper Hoch for Two-Point Conversion) — SJSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 7:33SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:59USC 4th & 4 at SJSU 4, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:06SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:34USC 4th & 1 at SJSU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:21SJSU 4th & 1 at USC 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:44SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 47, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:00SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:32USC 4th & 2 at USC 35, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:15SJSU 4th & 6 at USC 6, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SJSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q1 8:55USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:20USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:46USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:30USC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:28USC Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:56SJSU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:42USC Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:45SJSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 5:5299% → 99%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
99.0%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush left for 9 yards gain to the USC32 (#4 D.Lee)Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+8
99.0%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #19 M.Bowman caught at USC30, for 8 yards to the USC40 (#0 I.Buxton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
99.0%
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush middle for 11 yards gain to the SJS49 (#39 T.Tagovailoa-Amosa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
98.9%
(13:17) Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SJS41 (#4 D.Lee)Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+6
98.9%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #0 Z.Williams caught at SJS35, for 6 yards to the SJS35 (#8 R.Norton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
98.9%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush right for 9 yards gain to the SJS26 (#3 N.Danielson)Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+6
98.8%
(11:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SJS20 (#45 J.Tuiileila; #4 D.Lee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
98.8%
(11:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #10 C.Simms thrown to SJS14Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
98.8%
(11:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SJS13 (#32 C.Womack)Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+5
98.7%
(10:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 5 yards gain to the SJS08 (#8 R.Norton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 8
OPP 9
+1
98.7%
(10:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SJS07 (#6 E.Powell; #3 N.Danielson)Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
98.6%
(09:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #85 T.Baker caught at SJS02, for 6 yards to the SJS01 (#8 R.Norton)Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.7%
(08:55) No Huddle #14 J.Maiava rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SJS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:55 #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:151% → 1%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.7%
(08:55) Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short right to #2 J.McClure caught at SJS28, for 7 yards to the SJS32 (#0 J.Williams), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
98.6%
(08:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass incomplete deep right to #4 D.McKenzie thrown to USC28Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
98.6%
(08:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver rush right for 0 yards to the SJS32 (#17 D.Bryant)Similar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+41
98.6%
(07:52) #49 T.Carrizosa punt 46 yards to the USC22 #4 T.Mosley return 41 yards to the SJS37 (#83 K.Kopa-Kaawalauole) PENALTY SJS Block Below Waist (#49 T.Carrizosa) 15 yards from SJS37 to SJS22, 1ST DOWN. #14 J.Robertson injured on the playSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:2799% → 98%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
98.6%
(07:33) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at SJS17, for 5 yards to the SJS17 (#32 C.Womack)Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+10
98.6%
(06:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 10 yards gain to the SJS07 (#32 C.Womack), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
98.5%
(06:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 0 yards to the SJS07 (#3 N.Danielson)Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
98.4%
(05:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 3 yards loss to the SJS10 (#6 E.Powell)Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
98.4%
(04:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #27 R.Wormley caught at SJS04, for 6 yards to the SJS04, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 3:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
98.3%
(04:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava rush right for 3 yards gain to the SJS01 (#6 E.Powell), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:472% → 2%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
98.2%
(03:59) Shotgun #6 J.Bates rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SJS05 (#17 D.Bryant)Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 6
OWN 5
0
98.2%
(03:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass incomplete short left to #83 K.Kopa-Kaawalauole thrown to SJS08Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
98.2%
(03:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass incomplete short right to #13 C.Hoch thrown to SJS02 broken up by #94 L.WafleSimilar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+15
98.2%
(03:16) #49 T.Carrizosa punt 53 yards to the USC42 #4 T.Mosley return 15 yards to the SJS43 (#44 D.Aguilera)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:4298% → 98%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.3%
(03:06) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt thrown to SJS37Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
98.2%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJS41 (#4 D.Lee; #57 J.Stearns)Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+7
98.1%
(02:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 7 yards gain to the SJS34 (#4 D.Lee). The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+3
98.0%
(01:39) Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 3 yards gain to the SJS31 (#48 D.Roney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
98.0%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SJS28 (#90 J.McGlothen)Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+8
97.9%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #24 C.Tabaracci caught at SJS24, for 8 yards to the SJS20 (#1 B.Dukes; #4 D.Lee), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
97.9%
(15:00) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #0 Z.Williams caught at SJS20, for 15 yards to the SJS05 (#45 J.Tuiileila), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.4%
(14:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #27 R.Wormley rush left for 5 yards gain to the SJS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:20 #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6DOWNS
16 plays · 66 yds · 5:542% → 2%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.2%
(14:20) Shotgun #6 J.Bates rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SJS26 (#88 F.Boucard)Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
98.2%
(13:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short right to #6 J.Bates caught at SJS21, for 3 yards to the SJS29 (#16 P.Brown)Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
98.1%
(13:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short left to #1 C.Clark caught at SJS35, for 6 yards to the SJS35 (#2 E.Hill IV), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
98.1%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Bates rush middle for 13 yards gain to the SJS48 (#9 K.Urlacher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
98.0%
(12:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Bates rush left for 13 yards gain to the USC39 (#6 C.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
97.9%
(12:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short right to #1 C.Clark caught at USC34, for 7 yards to the USC32, out of bounds at USC32Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+4
97.8%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USC28 (#8 D.Stephens II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
97.7%
(11:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Bates rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USC29 (#8 D.Stephens II)Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+2
97.7%
(10:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Bates rush left for 2 yards gain to the USC27 (#6 C.Pierce)Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+11
97.7%
(10:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short right to #13 C.Hoch caught at USC16, for 11 yards to the USC16, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
97.6%
(09:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Bates rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC15 (#95 J.Ramos)Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+1
97.5%
(09:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 V.Teu rush right for 1 yard gain to the USC14 (#88 F.Boucard; #17 D.Bryant)Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+7
97.5%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short right to #1 C.Clark caught at USC07, for 7 yards to the USC07, out of bounds at USC07Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 1
OPP 7
-2
97.6%
(08:26) Shotgun #21 I.Carlson rush middle for 2 yards loss to the USC09 (#97 J.Abasiri), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 5:2898% → 99%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
97.8%
(08:21) Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USC14 (#6 E.Powell)Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+16
97.8%
(07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #4 T.Mosley caught at USC26, for 16 yards to the USC30 (#39 T.Tagovailoa-Amosa; #6 E.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.7%
(07:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #4 T.Mosley thrown to USC40 broken up by #14 J.RobertsonSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
97.7%
(07:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USC34 (#3 N.Danielson)Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+11
97.6%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Redeaux rush middle for 11 yards gain to the USC45 (#39 T.Tagovailoa-Amosa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
97.7%
(05:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep middle to #4 T.Mosley caught at SJS35, for 20 yards to the SJS35, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
97.7%
(05:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #85 T.Baker caught at SJS31, for 6 yards to the SJS29 (#14 J.Robertson; #8 R.Norton)Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+7
97.7%
(04:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #24 C.Tabaracci caught at SJS30, for 7 yards to the SJS22 (#6 E.Powell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-13
97.6%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava sacked for loss of 13 yards to the SJS35 (#4 D.Lee) PENALTY USC Intentional Grounding (#14 J.Maiava)Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 23
OPP 35
+13
97.5%
(04:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at SJS30, for 13 yards to the SJS22 (#5 K.Bullard, Jr.)Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+13
97.5%
(03:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #10 C.Simms caught at SJS15, for 13 yards to the SJS09 (#14 J.Robertson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.0%
(02:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at SJS00, for 9 yards to the SJS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:46 #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:551% → 1%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
98.8%
(02:46) Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short right to #4 D.McKenzie caught at SJS29, for 18 yards to the SJS43 (#7 A.Graham), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.7%
(02:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass incomplete deep left to #10 A.Ivey thrown to USC25Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
98.7%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short right to #0 J.Anderson caught at SJS46, for 4 yards to the SJS47 (#15 J.Walker)Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
98.7%
(02:00) Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass incomplete deep left to #2 J.McClure thrown to USC25Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
98.7%
(01:54) #49 T.Carrizosa punt 33 yards to the USC20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:0799% → 100%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
99.0%
(01:44) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #4 T.Mosley caught at USC25, for 17 yards to the USC37 (#48 D.Roney; #1 B.Dukes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
99.0%
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #85 T.Baker caught at USC42, for 13 yards to the USC50 (#39 T.Tagovailoa-Amosa), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
50
+33
99.0%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #4 T.Mosley caught at SJS33, for 33 yards to the SJS17 (#0 I.Buxton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
99.1%
(00:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush right for 6 yards gain to the SJS11 (#3 N.Danielson; #90 J.McGlothen)Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+7
99.1%
(00:45) Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush right for 7 yards gain to the SJS04 (#92 N.Siaosi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.7%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush right for 4 yards gain to the SJS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:30 #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:150% → 0%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
(00:30) Shotgun #6 J.Bates rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SJS26 (#94 L.Wafle)Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
99.6%
(00:01) Shotgun #6 J.Bates rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SJS28 (#1 K.Crawford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:541% → 0%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.0%
(15:00) Shotgun #6 J.Bates rush middle for 1 yard loss to the SJS24 (#97 J.Abasiri; #94 L.Wafle)Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
99.7%
(14:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short right to #2 J.McClure caught at SJS25, for 1 yard to the SJS25, out of bounds at SJS25Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.7%
(13:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short left to #6 J.Bates caught at SJS18, for 6 yards to the SJS31 (#16 P.Brown)Similar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.7%
(13:07) #49 T.Carrizosa punt 42 yards to the USC27, out of bounds at USC27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
99.7%
(13:00) Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 1 yard loss to the USC26 (#32 C.Womack) PENALTY USC Holding (#52 W.Wascher) 10 yards from USC27 to USC17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+10
99.7%
(12:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #0 Z.Williams caught at USC21, for 10 yards to the USC27 (#1 B.Dukes)Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
99.7%
(11:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #10 C.Simms caught at USC33, for 6 yards to the USC33 (#0 I.Buxton)Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+2
99.8%
(11:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 2 yards gain to the USC35 (#6 E.Powell)Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
99.7%
(10:38) #35 L.Carrigan punt 45 yards to the SJS20 fair catch by #10 A.Ivey at SJS20 PENALTY USC Illegal Substitution 5 yards from SJS20 to SJS25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:010% → 1%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
99.8%
(10:32) Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete deep middle to #1 C.Clark caught at USC33, for 42 yards to the USC33, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
99.3%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver rush middle for 12 yards gain to the USC21 (#6 C.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-79
99.2%
(09:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass incomplete short middle to #10 A.Ivey thrown to USC05Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+8
99.3%
(09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USC13 (#15 J.Walker)Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+7
99.3%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short middle to #1 C.Clark caught at USC07, for 7 yards to the USC06 (#38 I.Rubin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.3%
(08:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 I.Carlson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USC05 (#18 Z.Fisher; #97 J.Abasiri)Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
99.3%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 I.Carlson rush left for 1 yard loss to the USC06 (#97 J.Abasiri)Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.4%
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass incomplete short left thrown to USC00Similar
Q3 7:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+22
99.4%
(07:18) #36 T.Sinatra field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 D.Aguilera), clock 07:15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:31100% → 100%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
99.5%
(07:09) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #4 T.Mosley caught at USC30, for 6 yards to the USC32 (#32 C.Womack)Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+2
99.5%
(06:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 2 yards gain to the USC34 (#0 I.Buxton)Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+12
99.5%
(05:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #4 T.Mosley caught at USC37, for 12 yards to the USC46 (#24 M.Hoeft), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
99.6%
(05:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #88 T.Tupou caught at SJS40, for 25 yards to the SJS29 (#32 C.Womack), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.6%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete deep left to #4 T.Mosley thrown to SJS04Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
99.6%
(04:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at SJS20, for 9 yards to the SJS20 (#39 T.Tagovailoa-Amosa), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+3
99.7%
(03:57) No Huddle #8 K.Miller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SJS17 (#3 N.Danielson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
99.7%
(03:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #19 M.Bowman caught at SJS17, for 3 yards to the SJS14 (#57 J.Stearns)Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
(02:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #4 T.Mosley caught at SJS09, for 14 yards to the SJS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:28, 1ST DOWN #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:160% → 1%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
99.9%
(02:22) Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short left to #10 A.Ivey caught at SJS42, for 13 yards to the SJS45 (#2 E.Hill IV), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short right to #1 C.Clark caught at SJS49, for 5 yards to the SJS50, out of bounds at SJS50Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 5
50
+13
99.9%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short middle to #13 C.Hoch caught at USC37, for 13 yards to the USC37 (#21 R.Sermons), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
99.9%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short middle to #2 J.McClure caught at USC30, for 9 yards to the USC28 (#14 T.Robinson)Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+28
99.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete deep middle to #2 J.McClure caught at USC00, for 28 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:56, 1ST DOWN #83 K.Kopa-Kaawalauole pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0599% → 100%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.3%
(14:56) Shotgun #15 J.Williams pass complete short right to #19 M.Bowman caught at USC26, for 4 yards to the USC29 (#0 I.Buxton), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.3%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Williams pass complete short left to #10 C.Simms caught at USC27, for 5 yards to the USC34 (#39 T.Tagovailoa-Amosa), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.4%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Alston rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USC36 (#32 C.Womack), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.4%
(13:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Williams pass incomplete deep middle to #24 C.Tabaracci thrown to SJS40Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
99.4%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Williams rush left for 9 yards gain to the USC45 (#32 C.Womack)Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+15
99.4%
(12:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Redeaux rush right for 15 yards gain to the SJS40 (#0 I.Buxton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
99.4%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Williams pass complete short left to #10 C.Simms caught at SJS28, for 18 yards to the SJS22 (#0 I.Buxton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+20
99.4%
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Williams pass complete deep right to #85 T.Baker caught at SJS02, for 20 yards to the SJS02 (#13 P.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.4%
(10:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Alston rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SJS01 (#3 N.Danielson)Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Alston rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SJS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:42 #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:260% → 1%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
(09:42) Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass incomplete short right thrown to SJS38Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short right to #2 J.McClure caught at SJS28, for 10 yards to the SJS35 (#34 J.Crowder; #31 M.Riordan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
(09:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass incomplete short left to #2 J.McClure thrown to SJS39Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.9%
(09:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver rush right for 3 yards gain to the SJS38 (#22 T.Ili), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+9
99.9%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver rush middle for 9 yards gain to the SJS47 (#22 T.Ili), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
99.9%
(07:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver sacked for loss of 1 yard to the SJS46 (#95 J.Ramos)Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
99.9%
(07:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass incomplete short middle to #9 J.Nix thrown to SJS46 broken up by #99 J.JarrettSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+24
99.9%
(07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 V.Teu rush left for 24 yards gain to the USC30 (#9 K.Urlacher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
99.9%
(06:13) Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete deep middle to #10 A.Ivey caught at USC10, for 21 yards to the USC09 (#9 K.Urlacher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.9%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Bates rush left for 2 yards gain (2) to the USC07 (#88 F.Boucard) PENALTY USC Face Mask (#88 F.Boucard) 4 yards from USC07 to USC03, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.4%
(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short right to #0 J.Anderson caught at USC00, for 3 yards to the USC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:11 #36 T.Sinatra kick attempt good (H: #49 T.Carrizosa, LS: #44 D.Aguilera)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18INT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:2799% → 100%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
99.4%
(05:06) Shotgun #22 S.Alston rush left for 8 yards gain to the USC29 (#3 N.Danielson)Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 2
OWN 29
0
99.5%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Williams rush right for 0 yards to the USC29 (#3 N.Danielson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+7
99.5%
(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Alston rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USC36 (#91 A.Jennings), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
99.5%
(03:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Williams sacked for loss of 6 yards to the USC30 (#97 J.Norwood)Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+8
99.5%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Williams pass complete short right to #1 E.Feaster caught at USC38, for 8 yards to the USC38 (#13 P.Walker)Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-6
99.5%
(02:33) Shotgun #15 J.Williams pass intercepted by #3 N.Danielson at USC41 #3 N.Danielson return 6 yards to the USC35 (#70 A.Dunn), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:311% → 4%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
99.3%
(02:24) Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass complete short right to #2 J.McClure caught at USC29, for 13 yards to the USC22 (#7 A.Graham), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
99.3%
(02:00) Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass incomplete deep left to #2 J.McClure thrown to USC00 PENALTY USC Pass Interference (#38 I.Rubin) 15 yards from USC22 to USC07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.3%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 L.Weaver pass incomplete short middle to #2 J.McClure thrown to USC00Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
96.2%
Luke Weaver 7 Yd Run (Luke Weaver Pass to Cooper Hoch for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20END OF GAME
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2499% → 99%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
98.6%
(01:44) Shotgun #22 S.Alston rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SJS38 (#45 J.Tuiileila)Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+6
98.6%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Alston rush middle for 6 yards gain to the SJS32 (#3 N.Danielson; #6 E.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
98.6%
(00:29) Kneel down by USC at SJS34 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:45
Luke Weaver 7 Yd Run (Luke Weaver Pass to Cooper Hoch for Two-Point Conversion)
-3.1
TD · Q2 2:46
(02:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #17 K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at SJS00, for 9 yards to the SJS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:46 #45 C.Chittenden kick attempt good (H: #35 L.Carrigan, LS: #53 L.Brown)
+1.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com