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NEV

Nevada 21 at San José State 10

SJSU
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:14 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:20: Tim Crawley run for 24 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +14.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:26: Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 8 yds to the SJSt 42 — NEV win probability +9.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 12:43: Cody Fajardo run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +27.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:40: James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 42 — NEV win probability +10.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:06: Joe Gray pass intercepted for a TD Nigel Haikins return for 27 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +21.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9NEV made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:01SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:15NEV 4th & 15 at NEV 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:27SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 10:02NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 8:16SJSU 4th & 1 at NEV 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    45.1%−0.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q1 8:16SJSU 4th & 9 at NEV 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    45.3%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:02SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.9%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:02SJSU 4th & 12 at NEV 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    40.6%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:44NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 19, up 7
    Close callPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:20NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:58NEV 4th & 8 at SJSU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−10.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:58SJSU 4th & 4 at SJSU 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:43SJSU 4th & 3 at NEV 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    37.4%−3.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−3.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:02NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−2.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:09SJSU 4th & 11 at NEV 36, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.4%−0.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:02NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 12:09NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:20SJSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:43NEV Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:06NEV Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
40.7%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
40.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
40.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+6
40.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Don Jackson for 6 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
40.7%
Alex Boy punt for 48 yds, downed at the SJSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
41.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 4 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+7
41.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 7 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
41.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 38Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
41.1%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tyler ErvinSimilar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
41.1%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
41.0%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
41.6%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Nevad 20Similar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
41.6%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
41.6%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
41.7%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
41.8%
Alex Boy punt for 33 yds, downed at the SJSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
42.2%
Jarrod Lawson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+4
42.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 4 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 4
OPP 47
-5
42.3%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 48Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+1
42.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for 1 yd to the SJSt 49Similar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
41.9%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+18
42.3%
Don Jackson run for 18 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
42.3%
Don Jackson run for 16 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
41.9%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-2
41.8%
James Butler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
42.1%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Cody FajardoSimilar
Q1 10:02
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+32
42.4%
Alex Boy punt for 32 yds , Tyler Ervin returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6PUNT
14 plays · 37 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
42.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 6 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 4
OWN 30
-3
43.1%
Jarrod Lawson run for 7 yds to the SJSt 37 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SJSt 27Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
42.9%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+18
42.5%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 18 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
43.4%
Jarrod Lawson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-5
43.5%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+4
43.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+6
43.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 6 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+6
43.1%
Jarrod Lawson run for 6 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
43.6%
MONROE, Brandon rush right for 10 yards to the NEV30 (GARRETT, C.), PENALTY SJ illegal cut (SCHWEITZER, Wes) 15 yards to the SJ45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 25
OWN 45
+5
43.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 20
50
+11
43.1%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 11 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
43.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for no gain to the Nevad 39Similar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
42.8%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:3456% → 63%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
44.0%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+11
44.0%
James Butler run for 11 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
43.7%
Cody Fajardo run for 10 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
43.1%
Cody Fajardo run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
50
+5
42.7%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
42.9%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 7 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+8
42.7%
Don Jackson run for 8 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
42.5%
Cody Fajardo run for 2 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-1
43.1%
Cody Fajardo run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 29Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+15
43.8%
FAJARDO, Cody left pass incomplete to HENDERSON, H., PENALTY SJ pass interference (PRUITT, Jimmy) 15 yards to the SJ14, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
37.3%
Cody Fajardo run for 14 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8PUNT
16 plays · 45 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
39.5%
Jarrod Lawson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+6
39.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 6 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 1
OWN 28
-5
39.4%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the SJSt 23Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+7
38.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tim Crawley for 7 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
39.8%
Tim Crawley run for 5 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
40.4%
Jarrod Lawson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
40.4%
Tim Crawley run for 1 yd to the SJSt 39Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+4
40.0%
Joe Gray run for 4 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
40.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Daniel Bradbury for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 3
50
+16
41.5%
Joe Gray pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 16 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-15
42.4%
ERVIN, Tyler rush left for 1 yard to the NEV33 (DOBRICH, Jordan), PENALTY SJ illegal cut (VELICHKO, Nate) 15 yards to the NEV49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 25
OPP 49
+12
40.5%
Joe Gray run for 12 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+1
40.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 12
OPP 36
0
40.3%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Jarrod LawsonSimilar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
39.6%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 24 yds, downed at the Nevad 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
37.2%
Cody Fajardo run for no gain to the Nevad 12Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+6
37.3%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+1
37.5%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 19Similar
Q2 4:44
4TH & 3
OWN 19
0
38.3%
Alex Boy punt for 60 yds, downed at the SJSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 2:3837% → 44%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
36.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 8 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+6
38.2%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jabari Carr for 6 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
37.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 9 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
37.4%
Jarrod Lawson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
37.0%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jarrod Lawson for 2 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+11
37.3%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 11 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
38.2%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Jarrod Lawson, broken up by Lenny JonesSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
38.0%
Joe Gray run for 1 yd to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+5
37.3%
GRAY, Joe rush left for 3 yards to the NEV37 (DOBRICH, Jordan), PENALTY NEV offside 5 yards to the NEV35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+5
38.2%
Jarrod Lawson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
39.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 7 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+8
39.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 8 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+32
43.7%
Austin Lopez 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4042% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
41.9%
Tim Crawley run for 1 yd to the SJSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+25
41.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 25 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
45.3%
Jarrod Lawson run for 9 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-2
45.5%
Jarrod Lawson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+18
45.1%
Jarrod Lawson run for 18 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
59.7%
Tim Crawley run for 24 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.2%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
52.2%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
53.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 10 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
51.2%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
50.9%
Cody Fajardo run for no gain to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
51.6%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy TurnerSimilar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 7
OWN 49
+6
54.1%
Alex Boy punt for 38 yds , Tyler Ervin returns for 6 yds to the SJSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:1557% → 61%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
57.2%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 8 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 2
OWN 27
0
58.6%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Billy Freeman, broken up by Matthew LyonsSimilar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+6
56.4%
Joe Gray run for 6 yds to the SJSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
57.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 12 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
59.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 46Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+8
60.2%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 8 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-3
60.7%
Jarrod Lawson run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line Jarrod Lawson fumbled, recovered by Nevad Bryan Lane Jr. , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:2849% → 45%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
50
+8
51.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 8 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+4
50.5%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
51.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 16 yds to the SJSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
49.0%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for 2 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+5
49.0%
Cody Fajardo run for 5 yds to the SJSt 15Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
50.8%
James Butler run for no gain to the SJSt 15Similar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 3
OPP 15
-5
53.0%
NEVADA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the SJSt 20Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
55.4%
Brent Zuzo 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
58.5%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-10 Yards) to the SJSt 10Similar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
58.3%
Tim Crawley run for 1 yd to the SJSt 11Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+9
57.9%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jarrod Lawson for 9 yds to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
58.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+14
58.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 14 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
60.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 7 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-1
62.1%
Jarrod Lawson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 45Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
60.7%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Tyler Winston, broken up by Charles GarrettSimilar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
58.9%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:3641% → 74%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
58.7%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 3 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
58.4%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Richy Turner for no gain to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+18
60.1%
Cody Fajardo pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 3 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
54.1%
Cody Fajardo run for 4 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+17
54.3%
Don Jackson run for 17 yds to the SJSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+22
51.8%
Don Jackson run for 22 yds to the SJSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
53.0%
Cody Fajardo run for 4 yds to the SJSt 2Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
25.7%
Cody Fajardo run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
37.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jarrod Lawson for 10 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
39.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
40.0%
Joe Gray run for 3 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
39.2%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Shane SmithSimilar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+1
36.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 1 yd to the Nevad 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3874% → 71%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
26.1%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
25.9%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
26.8%
Cody Fajardo pass incomplete to Richy Turner, broken up by Forrest HightowerSimilar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
29.1%
Alex Boy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4434% → 12%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
33.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 1 yd to the SJSt 19Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
33.2%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Hansell Wilson, broken up by Dupree Roberts-JordanSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+27
11.5%
Joe Gray pass intercepted for a TD Nigel Haikins return for 27 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20MISSED FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:5212% → 9%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+25
12.4%
Joe Gray pass complete to Billy Freeman for 25 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
14.5%
Jarrod Lawson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+7
14.5%
Joe Gray pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 7 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
15.8%
Jarrod Lawson run for no gain to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-1
15.7%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 36Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
13.6%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Jarrod LawsonSimilar
Q4 6:09
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+53
8.9%
Austin Lopez 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:0793% → 92%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
7.5%
Cody Fajardo run for 4 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-10
7.2%
JACKSON, Don rush right for loss of 6 yards to the NEV35 (RACITI, Travis), PENALTY NEV holding (CORBETT, Austin) 10 yards to the NEV31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+2
7.9%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+12
8.4%
Cody Fajardo run for 12 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 2
OWN 45
-5
8.0%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Trevor Taft) to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
8.0%
Alex Boy punt for 39 yds, downed at the SJSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22INT
8 plays · 47 yds · 0:004% → 6%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
3.8%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 3 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
3.8%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Hansell WilsonSimilar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+8
3.6%
Joe Gray pass complete to Tyler Winston for 8 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
4.0%
Joe Gray pass incomplete to Hansell WilsonSimilar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
3.8%
GRAY, Joe short middle pass incomplete to FREEMAN, Billy (MCNEAL, J.), PENALTY NEV pass interference (MCNEAL, J.) 6 yards to the SJ38, 1ST DOWN SJ, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
4.2%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jarrod Lawson for 22 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
4.7%
Joe Gray pass complete to Jarrod Lawson for 8 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
5.8%
Joe Gray pass intercepted Duran Workman return for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
4.6%
Don Jackson run for 11 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
4.5%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
4.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 12
OWN 29
-2
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:43
Cody Fajardo run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
-27.3
TD · Q4 9:06
Joe Gray pass intercepted for a TD Nigel Haikins return for 27 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
-21.7
TD · Q3 12:20
Tim Crawley run for 24 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)
+14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com