Try the model
NEV

Nevada 20 at San José State 30

SJSU
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 11, 2020 · CEFCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameTD+18.7SJSU 79.0%Tyler Nevens run for 69 yds for a TD(Two-Point Conversion failed)AWAY 20 - HOME 27 · Q3 0:25
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:25 · Tyler Nevens run for 69 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Home team on offense+12.9Pregame prior−2.2Garbage-time factor+7.6Score differential+2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 8:56: Brandon Talton 43 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +3.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:06: Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +6.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:46: Julian Diaz kickoff for 63 yds , Shamar Garrett return for 98 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +14.5 pts (now 35%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:34: Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +18.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:25: Tyler Nevens run for 69 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — SJSU win probability +18.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:18SJSU 4th & 2 at NEV 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.1%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:25NEV 4th & 7 at SJSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:56SJSU 4th & 1 at NEV 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.4%−0.9
    75% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−4.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:49NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.0%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:56NEV 4th & 4 at SJSU 26, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.8%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:06SJSU 4th & 24 at SJSU 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:29NEV 4th & 26 at NEV 20, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−6.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00NEV 4th & 14 at NEV 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−4.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:35SJSU 4th & 10 at NEV 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−1.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−11.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:51SJSU 4th & 3 at NEV 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    92.9%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−2.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:28NEV 4th & 24 at NEV 48, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:22SJSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:10NEV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:06NEV Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:34SJSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:25SJSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    76.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
41.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 12 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
41.4%
Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+5
41.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 5 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
41.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for no gain to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
41.4%
Julian Diaz punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kenyon Reed at the SJSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2MISSED FG
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:2942% → 43%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+57
42.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 57 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
42.5%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
42.5%
Kairee Robinson run for 8 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 2
OPP 17
0
42.4%
Nick Starkel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+34
42.9%
Matt Mercurio 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3FG
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:5357% → 57%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+52
42.6%
Toa Taua run for 52 yds to the SJSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
42.1%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd to the SJSt 27Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+2
42.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 2 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
42.2%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q1 9:25
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
42.6%
Brandon Talton 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:5943% → 46%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
42.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 5 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-5
43.0%
Nick Starkel run for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 27 Nick Starkel fumbled,Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+19
42.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 19 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
43.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 15 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
43.3%
Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+33
46.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 33 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 5:1255% → 58%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
45.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
44.6%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
45.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 5 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
45.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+4
45.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 4 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
45.4%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
45.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for no gain to the SJSt 42Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+15
45.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 15 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
45.0%
Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+19
45.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 19 yds to the SJSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
45.0%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the SJSt 2Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 2 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:0844% → 46%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+48
44.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 48 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
46.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+3
46.8%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
46.0%
Nick Nash run for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
46.1%
Nick Nash run for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 4:5356% → 61%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
44.4%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
44.4%
Carson Strong run for 8 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
43.9%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 13:49
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+21
44.5%
Devonte Lee run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
50
+7
42.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 7 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+11
42.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
42.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 2 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
42.2%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+4
42.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 4 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 8:56
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
39.4%
Brandon Talton 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 4 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
42.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-31
41.1%
Nick Starkel pass intercepted Tyson Williams return for 31 yds to the SJSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:4064% → 70%
Q2 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
36.3%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.9%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 5 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
34.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
33.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 8 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
34.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
34.2%
STARKEL, Nick pass incomplete to BRADDOCK,Jermai, PENALTY NEV pass interference (ROBINS, Berdale) 12 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
50
-4
35.3%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 46Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 14
OWN 46
-10
34.1%
Nick Starkel sacked by Zak Mahannah for a loss of 10 yards to the SJSt 36Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 24
OWN 36
0
33.0%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 24
OWN 36
0
33.0%
Elijah Fischer punt for 51 yds, downed at the Nevad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11MISSED FG
18 plays · 79 yds · 4:1570% → 79%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
29.6%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+8
29.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 8 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+7
29.4%
Devonte Lee run for 7 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
29.1%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
29.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 8 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+2
28.9%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
28.3%
Carson Strong run for 3 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-5
28.3%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Melquan Stovall) to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+7
29.1%
Carson Strong run for 7 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+22
28.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 22 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
27.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 3 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+16
27.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 16 yds to the SJSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
27.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 3 yds to the SJSt 13Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+5
21.3%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SJSt 8Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 2
OPP 0
0
21.0%
STRONG, Carson pass incomplete to TURNER, Cole, PENALTY NEV illegal procedure off-setting, PENALTY SJSU pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 2
OPP 8
0
21.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory HortonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+25
20.7%
Brandon Talton 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13FUMBLE
12 plays · 64 yds · 0:0065% → 67%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
35.2%
STRONG, Carson pass complete to TAUA, Toa for loss of 2 yards to the NEV33 (FEHOKO, Viliami), PENALTY SJSU substitution infraction 5 yards to the NEV40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+2
34.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 2 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+8
34.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
50
-3
33.5%
Carson Strong sacked by Noah Wright for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 47Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+23
34.9%
Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the SJSU 45 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (Kenyon Reed) to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
33.3%
Devonte Lee run for 2 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+9
33.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 9 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
33.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 8 yds to the SJSt 11Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+7
33.1%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the SJSt 7 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (Kyle Harmon) to the SJSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
33.1%
Devonte Lee run for 3 yds to the SJSt 1Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
33.1%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the SJSt 1 Toa Taua fumbled, forced by Jay Kakiva, recovered by SJSt Jay LenardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14TD
13 plays · 99 yds · 6:1237% → 62%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
36.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the SJSt 7Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+26
36.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 26 yds to the SJSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
38.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 8 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+5
40.7%
Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
40.6%
Nick Starkel run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 6
50
+3
41.3%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+9
40.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 9 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
41.7%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (Jaime Navarro) to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+16
39.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 16 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+17
43.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 17 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
43.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the Nevad 9Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
43.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Sam Olson for 4 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
61.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0043% → 40%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
57.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 11 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
56.7%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 12 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
55.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole TurnerSimilar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
56.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Melquan StovallSimilar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-5
57.8%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Jermaine Ledbetter) to the Nevad 31Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 15
OWN 31
-11
58.9%
Carson Strong sacked by Cade Hall and E.J. Ane for a loss of 11 yards to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 26
OWN 20
0
60.3%
Julian Diaz punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SJSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16TD
1 play · 69 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
79.0%
Tyler Nevens run for 69 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 0:2028% → 25%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
72.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Avery Morrow for 3 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
72.1%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+14
73.7%
Carson Strong run for 14 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
70.0%
STRONG, Carson pass incomplete to TURNER, Cole, PENALTY NEV holding (KROLL, Erick) 10 yards to the NEV36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 36
-5
72.9%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Aaron Frost) to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+3
73.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 3 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 34
+8
73.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 42
0
73.7%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 42
+6
75.1%
Julian Diaz punt for 51 yds , Kenyon Reed returns for 6 yds to the SJSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18FG
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:3381% → 85%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+54
81.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 69 yds to the SJSU 18 for a 1ST down SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, sideline interference (-15 Yards) to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
84.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
84.0%
Kairee Robinson run for 10 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
84.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+14
84.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 14 yds to the Nevad 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
84.1%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (Kyle Hoppe) to the Nevad 12Similar
Q4 13:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
84.1%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the Nevad 10Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
84.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Tre Walker, broken up by Christian SwintSimilar
Q4 13:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
82.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Kairee RobinsonSimilar
Q4 9:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
84.6%
Matt Mercurio 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 36 yds · 0:0014% → 16%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
86.2%
Toa Taua run for 12 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
85.2%
STRONG, Carson pass incomplete to HORTON, Tory, PENALTY SJSU pass interference (NEVENS, Tyler) 15 yards to the SJSU43, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
84.1%
Toa Taua run for 9 yds to the SJSt 34 Toa Taua fumbled, forced by Jay Lenard, recovered by SJSt Tre JenkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 5:4988% → 94%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
87.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 7 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+8
88.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 8 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
88.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+2
88.6%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+8
88.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 8 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
88.8%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+8
88.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 8 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-5
88.8%
STARKEL, Nick pass complete to WALKER, Tre for 26 yards to the NEV7 (BRADFORD, M.), PENALTY SJSU IP (HOPPE, Kyle) 5 yards to the NEV38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+2
88.2%
Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 3
OPP 28
0
94.2%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Tre Walker, broken up by Jordan LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 20 yds · 1:195% → 3%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
94.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 18 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
94.1%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+16
94.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 16 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
93.8%
Carson Strong sacked by Cade Hall for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 45Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 17
OPP 45
-7
96.0%
Carson Strong sacked by Cade Hall for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 24
OWN 48
0
96.6%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 24
OWN 48
0
96.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 49Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-1
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:25
Tyler Nevens run for 69 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+18.7
TD · Q3 2:34
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)
+18.6
TD · Q3 14:46
Julian Diaz kickoff for 63 yds , Shamar Garrett return for 98 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)
+14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com