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BOIS

Boise State 20 at San José State 34

SJSU
2020 · Week 16 · Dec 19, 2020 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+8.3SJSU 73.8%Matt Mercurio 32 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 19 · Q2 0:50
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:50 · Matt Mercurio 32 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Home team on offense+15.8Pregame prior−10.7Score differential+6.0Garbage-time factor+4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 2:31: Matt Mercurio 26 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:50: Matt Mercurio 32 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:17: Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 30 yds for a TD (Nick Starkel pass to Sam Olson for Two-Point Conversion) — SJSU win probability +15.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:51: Hank Bachmeier run for 2 yds for a TD SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Delay of Game (2 Yards) to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST down (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +13.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:48: Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK) — SJSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11BOIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:22SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:24BOIS 4th & 7 at SJSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:31BOIS 4th & 18 at SJSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    55.8%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:30SJSU 4th & 2 at BOIS 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    42.2%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:46SJSU 4th & 7 at BOIS 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:35BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:34SJSU 4th & 17 at SJSU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:36BOIS 4th & 12 at SJSU 42, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.9%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%−0.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    48.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:40SJSU 4th & 11 at BOIS 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:31SJSU 4th & 9 at BOIS 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−6.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:50SJSU 4th & 1 at BOIS 15, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%−1.4
    83% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−9.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:43BOIS 4th & 11 at SJSU 44, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%−1.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:08SJSU 4th & 2 at BOIS 19, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−1.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−10.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:39BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 18, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:48SJSU 4th & 7 at SJSU 30, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:51BOIS 4th & 2 at SJSU 2, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    10.2%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−9.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:24SJSU 4th & 3 at BOIS 42, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    81.2%−3.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%−2.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:18BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:04BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:06SJSU 4th & 8 at BOIS 9, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3BOIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:36SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 14:17SJSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    85.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:51BOIS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:48SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2330% → 31%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.4%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 26Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
30.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 8 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
30.8%
Kairee Robinson run for no gain to the SJSt 34Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
30.9%
Dimitri Sakalia punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:4169% → 68%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
31.0%
Andrew Van Buren run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+14
31.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 14 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
31.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for no gain to the SJSt 47Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
31.4%
Bachmeier, Hank rush for no gain to the SJSU47, PENALTY SJSU face mask 15 yards to the SJSU32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST.Similar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
31.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
31.5%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
31.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+46
32.1%
Jonah Dalmas 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 1:2533% → 36%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
32.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 14 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
33.1%
Nevens, Tyler rush for no gain to the SJSU43, PENALTY SJSU holding 10 yards to the SJSU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+12
33.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 12 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+55
35.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 55 yds for a TD BOISE ST Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 4:5765% → 63%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
35.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+14
35.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Riley Smith for 14 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
35.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Riley SmithSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
36.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 5 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+10
36.2%
Hank Bachmeier run for 10 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
36.1%
Andrew Van Buren run for no gain to the SJSt 49Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+23
36.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 23 yds to the SJSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
36.6%
Andrew Van Buren run for 4 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-11
37.0%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Cade Hall for a loss of 11 yards to the SJSt 33Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 17
OPP 33
-1
38.9%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Cade Hall for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 34Similar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 18
OPP 34
+51
37.3%
Jonah Dalmas 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5FG
18 plays · 68 yds · 3:4137% → 42%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 5 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
37.0%
Starkel, Nick pass incomplete to Deese Jr., Derrick, PENALTY BOISEST pass interference 10 yards to the SJSU40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SJSU.Similar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
38.2%
Kairee Robinson run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
38.7%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
38.6%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr.Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+15
37.9%
Starkel, Nick pass incomplete to Walker, Tre, PENALTY BOISEST pass interference 15 yards to the BOISEST33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SJSU.Similar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
39.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Andre Crump for 7 yds to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+1
39.5%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
39.2%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+15
39.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 15 yds to the BoiSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
40.6%
Starkel, Nick pass incomplete to Hamilton, Isaiah, PENALTY BOISEST roughing passer 5 yards to the BOISEST5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SJSU.Similar
Q1 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
40.8%
Nick Starkel run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
40.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Malikhi MillerSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
40.4%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr.Similar
Q2 14:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
41.9%
Matt Mercurio 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5058% → 56%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
41.8%
Hank Bachmeier run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+2
41.7%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 2
OWN 31
-3
42.5%
CT Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
44.3%
Joel Velazquez punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Kenyon Reed at the SJSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4643% → 43%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
43.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 10 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
44.0%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
44.0%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr.Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-7
43.7%
Nick Starkel sacked by Divine Obichere for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 23Similar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 17
OWN 23
0
43.2%
Elijah Fischer punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:5256% → 53%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
44.3%
Tyler Crowe run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+26
45.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 26 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
43.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-2
43.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Riley Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 42Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
45.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
47.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9FG
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:3049% → 51%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
49.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 20 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
50.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Sam Olson for 20 yds to the BoiSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
51.1%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
51.4%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 11
OPP 19
0
50.7%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr.Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+36
51.3%
Matt Mercurio 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:3248% → 47%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
51.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Billy Bowens for 6 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 4
OWN 22
-9
51.4%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Cade Hall for a loss of 9 yards to the BoiSt 22 BOISE ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
53.4%
Joel Velazquez punt for 48 yds , Kenyon Reed returns for no gain to the SJSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:5953% → 62%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+36
52.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 36 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
55.2%
Starkel, Nick pass incomplete to Gaither, Bailey, PENALTY SJSU holding 10 yards to the BOISEST44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+20
55.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 20 yds to the BoiSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
56.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
56.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 5 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+10
57.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 10 yds to the BoiSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
59.0%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
59.1%
Starkel, Nick pass incomplete to Nevens, Tyler, PENALTY SJSU illegal touching 0 yards to the BOISEST9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
58.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr.Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
62.3%
Matt Mercurio 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -25 yds · 0:1339% → 37%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
61.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
61.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-10
62.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the BoiSt 10 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Andrew Van BurenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:5966% → 74%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
65.5%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+27
65.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 12 yds to the SJSU 39 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BoiSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
66.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 5 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+4
66.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 4 yds to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
66.3%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+32
73.8%
Matt Mercurio 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:3432% → 38%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
68.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 9 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+6
65.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Riley Smith for 6 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
66.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 16 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
64.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Billy Bowens for 8 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+50
62.2%
Jonah Dalmas 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:4033% → 27%
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
67.2%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+15
67.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 15 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
67.4%
Andrew Van Buren run for no gain to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
68.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 9 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+5
67.4%
Hank Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
68.3%
Tyler Crowe run for 3 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
68.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-4
70.6%
Khalil Shakir run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 44Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
73.5%
Joel Velazquez punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kenyon Reed at the SJSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:1275% → 82%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
75.3%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 13Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
75.5%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+38
75.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 38 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
78.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Isaiah HolinessSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
78.0%
Starkel, Nick pass incomplete to Walker, Tre, PENALTY BOISEST holding 10 yards to the BOISEST39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SJSU.Similar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
78.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+14
78.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Sam Olson for 14 yds to the BoiSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
79.6%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+1
80.2%
Nick Starkel run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-5
80.5%
Starkel, Nick pass complete to Deese Jr., Derrick for 23 yards to the BOISEST4, PENALTY SJSU illegal formation 5 yards to the BOISEST32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 15
OPP 32
+13
81.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 13 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+1
81.9%
Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2221% → 19%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
79.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Riley SmithSimilar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
79.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Tyneil HopperSimilar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
80.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+8
80.9%
Joel Velazquez punt for 63 yds , Kenyon Reed returns for 8 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3583% → 65%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
83.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Shamar Garrett for 5 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-2
83.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 30Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
84.1%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr.Similar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+69
64.5%
Elijah Fischer punt for 39 yds , Avery Williams returns for 69 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1868% → 91%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.7%
Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
68.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 11 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
71.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey GaitherSimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+20
71.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 20 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
73.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 5 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
74.3%
Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+6
73.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 6 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
75.5%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Sam OlsonSimilar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
91.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 30 yds for a TD (Nick Starkel pass to Sam Olson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:0414% → 26%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
86.5%
Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+7
86.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 7 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
86.8%
Bachmeier, Hank pass incomplete, PENALTY SJSU offside 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST.Similar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
50
+40
86.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Riley Smith for 40 yds to the SJSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
85.4%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the SJSt 7Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
86.0%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the SJSt 4Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
86.9%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (2 Yards) to the SJSt 2Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
87.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Riley SmithSimilar
Q4 10:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.1%
Hank Bachmeier run for 2 yds for a TD SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Delay of Game (2 Yards) to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST down (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:0682% → 83%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
82.2%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 26 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
84.7%
Tyler Nevens run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
85.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
84.7%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Isaiah HamiltonSimilar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
83.3%
Elijah Fischer punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0022% → 19%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
77.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
78.2%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
80.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+23
81.2%
Joel Velazquez punt for 43 yds , Kenyon Reed returns for 23 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:5787% → 97%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-8
86.8%
Nick Starkel sacked by Isaiah Bagnah for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 18
50
+9
87.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 9 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+21
87.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 21 yds to the BoiSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
89.4%
Tyler Nevens run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
90.3%
Nick Nash run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 7 Nick Nash fumbled, recovered by SJSt Nick NashSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
90.6%
Robinson, Kairee rush for 2 yards to the BOISEST5, PENALTY BOISEST holding 5 yards to the BOISEST2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
92.8%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:315% → 3%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
94.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 4 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-2
94.6%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Noah Wright for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
97.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+4
97.3%
Hank Bachmeier run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:4998% → 99%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+24
97.9%
Kairee Robinson run for 24 yds to the BoiSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
98.1%
Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 10Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-1
98.4%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+2
98.5%
Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 9Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 8
OPP 9
-2
98.6%
Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:021% → 1%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
98.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
98.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for no gain to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+12
98.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 12 yds to the BoiSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
98.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
98.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 9 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
98.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:17
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 30 yds for a TD (Nick Starkel pass to Sam Olson for Two-Point Conversion)
+15.6
TD · Q4 10:51
Hank Bachmeier run for 2 yds for a TD SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Delay of Game (2 Yards) to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST down (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-13
FG · Q2 0:50
Matt Mercurio 32 yd FG GOOD
+8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com