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SJSU

San José State 17 at Air Force 7

AF
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:05 · Trent Carrizosa punt for 15 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Home team on offense−4.2Garbage-time factor−1.1Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Pregame prior+2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:06: Emmett Brown pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 58 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  2. PUNT · Q2 8:43: Trent Carrizosa punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 15 — AF win probability +9.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:52: Roman Bradley run for 4 yds to the AFA 24 — SJSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:30: Timeout Air Force, clock 08:30 — SJSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. INT · Q4 3:26: John Busha pass intercepted Jordan Cobbs return for no gain to the AFA 45 — SJSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 11 of 13SJSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 9:02AF 4th & 5 at AF 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:29AF 4th & 2 at SJSU 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    56.4%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−2.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:30AF 4th & 7 at AF 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:31SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53AF 4th & 19 at AF 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−1.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:05SJSU 4th & 5 at SJSU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:38AF 4th & 19 at AF 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−2.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:43SJSU 4th & 25 at SJSU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:35AF 4th & 5 at AF 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:39SJSU 4th & 3 at SJSU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:46AF 4th & 1 at AF 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.5%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:43SJSU 4th & 19 at AF 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    55.0%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:07AF 4th & 2 at SJSU 46, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.4%−0.6
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%
    23% to make
    Punt
    45.1%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.6%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:58AF 4th & 4 at AF 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:52SJSU 4th & 9 at AF 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:02AF 4th & 6 at AF 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:40SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−3.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  19. Q3 0:32AF 4th & 10 at SJSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:25SJSU 4th & 10 at AF 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−1.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−10.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:31SJSU 4th & 9 at SJSU 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:49SJSU 4th & 10 at AF 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    92.9%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:22AF 4th & 10 at AF 34, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:23SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:29AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:06SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3747% → 48%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.4%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 4 yds to the SJSU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
53.4%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 3 yds to the SJSU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+20
53.4%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 20 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
53.4%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
53.4%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 6 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+17
53.4%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 17 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
53.2%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 7 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+18
51.9%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 18 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:2152% → 51%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.4%
Aiden Calvert run for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
52.6%
Aiden Calvert run for 3 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
52.4%
Aiden Calvert run for 2 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
51.8%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+3
51.7%
John Busha pass complete to Cade Harris for 3 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
51.4%
Luke Freer punt for 20 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 15 yds · 1:1249% → 50%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
51.3%
Floyd Chalk IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 39Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+16
51.5%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 16 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-41
50.4%
San José State Penalty, Personal Foul (-41 Yards) to the SJSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:2152% → 55%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
52.1%
Aiden Calvert run for no gain to the SJSU 14Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
52.1%
Air Force Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SJSU 19Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+8
51.9%
John Busha run for 8 yds to the SJSU 11Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+5
51.8%
Cade Harris run for 5 yds to the SJSU 6Similar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+6
54.6%
Cade Harris run for 6 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2346% → 52%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.7%
Jabari Bates run for 1 yd to the SJSU 26Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
53.8%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
54.1%
BROWN, Emmett pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LOCKHART, Justin thrown to the SJS45. PENALTY AF Pass Interference on BELLAMY, Jamari enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the SJS38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
53.2%
Jabari Bates run for 4 yds to the SJSU 42Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+58
48.5%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 58 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3648% → 48%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.3%
Aiden Calvert run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
48.3%
Roman Bradley run for no gain to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
48.0%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
47.5%
Luke Freer punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5951% → 51%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
48.8%
Emmett Brown run for no gain to the SJSU 20Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
48.9%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
49.3%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
49.2%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 54 yds, downed at the AFA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:3848% → 46%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
47.6%
Kaden Cloud run for 4 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-10
47.6%
Air Force Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 12
OWN 24
-7
47.1%
run for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 17 fumbled, recovered by AFA John Busha J. Busha return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 19
OWN 17
0
46.2%
punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Matthew Coleman at the SJSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4253% → 53%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
46.8%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
47.1%
Emmett Brown run for 5 yds to the SJSU 40Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
46.4%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
46.9%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 15 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 2:2749% → 46%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
48.8%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-15
49.1%
CLOUD, Kaden rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the AF50 (LATU, Taniela;POLLARD, Jordan). PENALTY AF Personal Foul on LAWRENCE, Tyler enforced 15 yards from the AF48 to the AF33. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 22
OWN 33
0
47.6%
Cade Harris run for no gain to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 22
OWN 33
+3
47.2%
Roman Bradley run for 3 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 19
OWN 36
0
46.2%
Luke Freer punt for 42 yds, downed at the SJSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:5558% → 50%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
42.3%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 17 yds to the SJSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
41.0%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 5 yds to the SJSU 44Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+12
41.0%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 12 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
40.5%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
40.6%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-15
40.9%
Emmett Brown sacked by Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner for a loss of 15 yards to the SJSU 41Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 25
OWN 41
0
50.3%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:0851% → 50%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
51.3%
Cade Harris run for 4 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+13
51.3%
Cade Harris run for 13 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
51.8%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
51.5%
Rocco Conti run for 5 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
51.7%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
49.7%
Luke Freer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Matthew Coleman at the SJSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5653% → 49%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
46.7%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 7 yds to the SJSU 24Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 3
OWN 24
0
46.0%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
47.1%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
50.9%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5350% → 48%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
49.8%
Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+2
50.1%
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+1
49.6%
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 1
OWN 32
-2
47.7%
John Busha run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:0355% → 53%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-9
45.5%
Jacob Stewart run for a loss of 9 yards to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 19
OPP 39
0
46.8%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 19
OPP 39
0
47.6%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 19
OPP 39
0
46.8%
Dino Beslagic punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 29 yds · 1:5349% → 50%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
49.2%
Rocco Conti run for 6 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+8
49.4%
Cade Harris run for 8 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
49.6%
John Busha pass complete to Quin Smith for 8 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+1
51.5%
Rocco Conti run for 1 yd to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+3
50.9%
Roman Bradley run for 3 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
51.3%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
50.1%
Roman Bradley run for 2 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+6
50.4%
John Busha run for 6 yds to the SJSU 46Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 2
OPP 46
-5
49.9%
John Busha run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 49 John Busha fumbled, recovered by AFA John Busha J. Busha return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
45.9%
Emmett Brown sacked by Payton Zdroik for a loss of 6 yards to the SJSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 4:0241% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.9%
Aiden Calvert run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
40.9%
Roman Bradley run for 2 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
39.9%
John Busha pass complete to Brandon Engel for 6 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
40.3%
John Busha run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
41.8%
Roman Bradley run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
42.1%
John Busha run for 3 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+1
42.2%
Cade Harris run for 1 yd to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
38.7%
Luke Freer punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:0663% → 67%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
37.0%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 5 yds to the SJSU 19Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+11
36.5%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 11 yds to the SJSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
35.5%
Emmett Brown run for 6 yds to the SJSU 36Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+15
34.5%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 15 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
33.2%
Floyd Chalk IV run for no gain to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
33.4%
Lamar Radcliffe run for 1 yd to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
33.7%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
33.1%
Dino Beslagic punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:5034% → 30%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
33.6%
Roman Bradley run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
33.8%
Roman Bradley run for 5 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
33.3%
John Busha run for 3 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
34.1%
Roman Bradley run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
33.8%
Roman Bradley run for 4 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-1
34.0%
Aiden Calvert run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
29.5%
Luke Freer punt for 60 yds, downed at the SJSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21PUNT
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:2267% → 66%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
32.6%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 3 yds to the SJSU 7Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+1
33.9%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 1 yd to the SJSU 5Similar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 9
OWN 5
0
33.7%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:0833% → 27%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
32.5%
Roman Bradley run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 3
50
+2
34.0%
Aiden Calvert run for 2 yds to the SJSU 48Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+1
33.7%
John Busha run for 1 yd to the SJSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
34.2%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
33.5%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
31.7%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:32
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
26.9%
Carson Bay punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 6:3571% → 87%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
28.8%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 2 yds to the SJSU 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
29.1%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 6 yds to the SJSU 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
28.5%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 4 yds to the SJSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
27.3%
Emmett Brown pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 19 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
25.0%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 6 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-15
24.5%
BROWN, Emmett pass short to the right complete for 8 yards to MACALUSO, Sebastian caught at the AF38 and advanced to the AF35 (GOFF, Camby). PENALTY SJS Pass Interference on LOCKHART, Justin enforced 15 yards to the SJS42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 42
+7
28.1%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Floyd Chalk IV for 7 yds to the SJSU 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+24
26.9%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 24 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
24.0%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 10 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
23.9%
Jabari Bates run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 19
0
24.4%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 19
-5
25.2%
San José State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Floyd Chalk IV) to the AFA 24Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 17
OPP 24
+7
15.3%
Emmett Brown run for 7 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
13.0%
Kyler Halvorsen 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:5110% → 10%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
10.4%
Roman Bradley run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+13
10.1%
Cade Harris run for 13 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
10.3%
Roman Bradley run for 7 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
10.0%
John Busha pass intercepted Robert Rahimi return for no gain to the SJSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25PUNT
12 plays · 13 yds · 3:0389% → 91%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
10.9%
Jabari Bates run for 1 yd to the SJSU 26Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
11.7%
Emmett Brown run for 8 yds to the SJSU 34Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
11.2%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 3 yds to the SJSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
10.7%
CHALK, Floyd rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the SJS40 (AIHIE, Osaro;GOFF, Camby). PENALTY SJS Holding on NOMANI, Sione enforced 10 yards from the SJS37 to the SJS27 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+4
10.8%
Jabari Bates run for 4 yds to the SJSU 31Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+7
10.8%
Jabari Bates run for 7 yds to the SJSU 38Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
9.9%
Jabari Bates run for no gain to the SJSU 38Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+11
9.2%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 42 yds , Brandon Engel returns for 11 yds to the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 26INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
3.0%
John Busha pass intercepted Jordan Cobbs return for no gain to the AFA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3792% → 96%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
7.8%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 2 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-4
7.9%
Floyd Chalk IV run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+2
3.8%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 2 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
3.8%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 39 yds, downed at the AFA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 28DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:271% → 1%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
1.4%
John Busha pass complete to Quin Smith for 6 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+22
1.3%
John Busha pass complete to Quin Smith for 22 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
1.2%
John Busha pass complete to Tre Roberson for 5 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
1.3%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 5
OWN 39
-5
1.2%
Air Force Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
1.1%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
0.9%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:2297% → 97%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
3.4%
[SG] Kneel down by SJS at AF36 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 12
OPP 36
-2
3.4%
[SG] Kneel down by SJS at AF38 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 38
-1
3.0%
[SG] Kneel down by SJS at AF39 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q2 8:43
Trent Carrizosa punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 15
+9.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:30
Timeout Air Force, clock 08:30
-7.8
INT · Q4 3:26
John Busha pass intercepted Jordan Cobbs return for no gain to the AFA 45
-6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com