2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:54 · Kyler Halvorsen 40 Yard Field Goal Missed
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:21: Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for 17 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:33: Evan Svoboda pass complete to Justin Stevenson for 18 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +10.8 pts (now 26%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 8:31: Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for 9 yds to the SJSU 34 — SJSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 11:25: Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for 12 yds to the SJSU 26 for a 1ST down — SJSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:16: Jabari Bates run for 19 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7WYO made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
- Q1 9:17WYO 4th & 1 at SJSU 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.0%71% to convertField goal19.8%−0.245% to makePunt19.8%−0.3average punt
- Q1 6:33WYO 4th & 1 at SJSU 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.3%71% to convertField goal20.0%−0.368% to makePunt19.3%−1.0average punt
- Q1 2:54SJSU 4th & 6 at WYO 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snapGo for it80.0%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call80.1%70% to makePunt78.5%−1.6average punt
- Q2 13:44WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 49, down 7Close callPunted · 20.8% before the snapGo for it21.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 10:34WYO 4th & 13 at WYO 5, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snapGo for it18.5%−1.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.7%average punt
- Q2 6:15WYO 4th & 19 at WYO 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snapGo for it17.7%−1.910% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.6%average punt
- Q2 4:38WYO 4th & 1 at SJSU 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.7%71% to convertField goal20.2%−1.564% to makePunt16.7%−5.0average punt
- Q2 2:18WYO 4th & 25 at SJSU 36, down 7Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snapGo for it18.3%−1.37% to convertField goal19.6%42% to makePuntTheir call18.9%−0.7average punt
- Q3 11:24WYO 4th & 20 at WYO 35, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snapGo for it10.1%−2.010% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.2%average punt
- Q3 6:08SJSU 4th & 9 at WYO 9, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.7% before the snapGo for it81.2%−1.025% to convertField goalTheir call82.2%89% to makePunt75.6%−6.6average punt
- Q3 4:38WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 27, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snapGo for it14.1%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.6%average punt
- Q3 3:42SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 40, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snapGo for it83.9%−1.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.1%average punt
- Q3 2:09WYO 4th & 8 at SJSU 38, down 10Close callPunted · 15.1% before the snapGo for it15.4%35% to convertField goal14.8%−0.638% to makePuntTheir call14.7%−0.6average punt
- Q3 0:50SJSU 4th & 13 at SJSU 17, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snapGo for it83.8%−2.019% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.8%average punt
- Q4 6:52WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 35, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q4 5:55SJSU 4th & 7 at SJSU 34, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.3%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%average punt
- Q4 4:36WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 38, down 17Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.9%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.0%average punt
- Q4 2:54SJSU 4th & 6 at SJSU 24, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.8%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%average punt
- Q4 1:02SJSU 4th & 1 at SJSU 21, up 17Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.4%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:45SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.2%97% to makeGo for two80.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:21SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.7%97% to makeGo for two86.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:33WYO Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.5%97% to makeGo for two18.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:16SJSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 0:43WYO Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.6%97% to makeGo for two4.2%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSJSUDrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1480% → 80%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
80.0%
(14:59) EGET, Walker pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LOCKHART, Justin thrown to the WYO35, clock 14:54. PENALTY WYO Pass Interference on EKELER, Wyett enforced 15 yards to the SJSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+20
79.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for 20 yds to the WYO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2DOWNS13 plays · 54 yds · 7:0620% → 21%
SJSUDrive 3MISSED FG9 plays · 53 yds · 3:3480% → 80%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+27
80.5%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 27 yds to the WYO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT9 plays · 20 yds · 4:0321% → 21%
Q1 1:40
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+13
79.7%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 13 yds to the WYO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-1
78.9%
Jamari Ferrell run for 14 yds to the SJSU 43 for a 1ST down Wyoming Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jamari Ferrell) to the WYO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
79.0%
Jack Culbreath punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Matthew Coleman at the SJSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5FUMBLE5 plays · 79 yds · 1:2780% → 81%
WYODrive 6PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:3521% → 19%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
80.7%
(10:24) CHALK, Floyd rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the WYO34 (BROWN, Wrook), clock 10:17. PENALTY SJSU Holding enforced 10 yards from the WYO36 to the WYO46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7INT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0280% → 80%
Q2 9:50
2ND & 20
OPP 46
+10
80.1%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 10 yds to the WYO 36Similar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 10
OPP 36
-5
80.2%
San José State Penalty, False Start (Malik Williams) to the WYO 41Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 15
OPP 41
-11
79.6%
Walker Eget pass intercepted Wyett Ekeler return for 11 yds to the WYO 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 2:3221% → 19%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
79.2%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Will Pelissier for 8 yds to the WYO 31Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-9
79.9%
Evan Svoboda sacked by John Ward for a loss of 9 yards to the WYO 26Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 19
OWN 26
+39
80.6%
Jack Culbreath punt for 39 yds , Matthew Coleman returns for no gain to the SJSU 35 , returns for no gain to the SJSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9PUNT9 plays · -1 yds · 3:4723% → 20%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
76.3%
(04:08) SCOTT, Sam rush up the middle for no gain to the SJSU21 (FAGA, Gafa;LATU, Taniela), clock 04:05. PENALTY WYO Holding enforced 10 yards from the SJSU21 to the SJSU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 15
OPP 26
-10
78.7%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Sam Scott for a loss of 10 yards to the SJSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10TD16 plays · 97 yds · 1:5080% → 89%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+46
79.7%
Walker Eget pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 46 yds to the SJSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
80.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 9 yds to the WYO 42Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+8
80.7%
Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for 8 yds to the WYO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+3
80.3%
Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for 3 yds to the WYO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 16
OPP 17
+17
89.1%
Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for 17 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
86.2%
(00:14) [NH] Kneel down by SVOBODA, Evan at WYO24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT9 plays · 23 yds · 3:2813% → 11%
Q3 13:39
3RD & 12
OWN 10
+15
87.8%
(13:39) SVOBODA, Evan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROWN, Alex thrown to the SJSU45, clock 13:34. PENALTY SJSU Pass Interference on DANSBY, Michael enforced 15 yards to the WYO25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
87.5%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Tyler King for 20 yds to the WYO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 20
OWN 35
0
88.6%
Jack Culbreath punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Matthew Coleman at the SJSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13INT3 plays · 20 yds · 0:5389% → 90%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
89.0%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 5 yds to the SJSU 23Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+15
89.0%
Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for 15 yds to the SJSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
89.6%
Walker Eget pass intercepted Wrook Brown return for a loss of 5 yards to the WYO 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14TD6 plays · 55 yds · 1:3113% → 26%
Q3 9:38
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+16
88.2%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Tyler King for 16 yds to the SJSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
87.0%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 22 yds to the SJSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
73.8%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Justin Stevenson for 18 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15FG8 plays · 66 yds · 2:2381% → 84%
Q3 8:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+57
82.2%
Walker Eget pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 57 yds to the WYO 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2217% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4586% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18PUNT5 plays · 42 yds · 1:2516% → 17%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+40
84.3%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 40 yds to the SJSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1186% → 85%
Q3 1:19
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-10
85.3%
San José State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the SJSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20INT10 plays · 44 yds · 4:0916% → 16%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
83.7%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 19 yds to the SJSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
83.6%
San José State Penalty, Personal Foul (Soane Toia) to the SJSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-4
82.2%
Evan Svoboda run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSU 29 Evan Svoboda fumbled, recovered by WYO Evan Svoboda E. Svoboda return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+14
84.0%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 14 yds to the SJSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+6
82.9%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Nick Miles for 6 yds to the SJSU 14Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
83.7%
Evan Svoboda pass intercepted Amir Wallace return for no gain to the SJSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21TD8 plays · 86 yds · 4:0988% → 99%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
87.7%
Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for 12 yds to the SJSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
88.0%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 6 yds to the SJSU 32Similar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
89.4%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 2 yds to the SJSU 43Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+17
91.7%
Walker Eget pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 17 yds to the WYO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
93.1%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 9 yds to the WYO 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:193% → 3%
Q4 6:52
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+7
97.0%
Jack Culbreath punt for 41 yds , Matthew Coleman returns for 7 yds to the SJSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4899% → 99%
Q4 5:55
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+15
98.9%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 48 yds , Caleb Cooley returns for 15 yds to the WYO 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24INT5 plays · 12 yds · 1:463% → 2%
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
97.6%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jaylen Sargent for 5 yds to the WYO 38Similar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+7
97.8%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Jaylen Sargent for 7 yds to the WYO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
97.8%
Kaden Anderson pass intercepted Robert Rahimi return for no gain to the SJSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
Q4 2:54
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+3
99.3%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 38 yds , Caleb Cooley returns for 3 yds to the WYO 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 26INT3 plays · 41 yds · 0:442% → 3%
SJSUDrive 27PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5699% → 100%
Q4 1:12
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
99.5%
Lamar Radcliffe run for no gain to the SJSU 16 Lamar Radcliffe fumbled, recovered by SJSU Cooper Hoch C. Hoch return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+41
99.6%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 41 yds , Tyler King returns for no gain to the WYO 37 , returns for no gain to the WYO 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 28TD1 play · 63 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
96.8%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 63 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 29END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
98.6%
(00:14) [NH] Kneel down by EGET, Walker at WYO43 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:33
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Justin Stevenson for 18 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
-10.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:31
Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for 9 yds to the SJSU 34
+6.9
TD · Q2 0:21
Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for 17 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)
+5.9