Try the model
NEV

Nevada 31 at San José State 35

SJSU
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · CEFCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:00 · Trent Carrizosa punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Pregame prior+8.3Home team on offense+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.7Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:50: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK) — NEV win probability +14.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:16: Brendon Lewis run for 14 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK) — NEV win probability +15.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:53: Floyd Chalk IV 5 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick) — SJSU win probability +21.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:28: Matthew Killam 25 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +13.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:50: Nick Nash pass complete to Jabari Bates for 16 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +68.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 1:31NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 8:19NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:34SJSU 4th & 24 at SJSU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−2.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  4. Q3 14:00SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−2.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 2:53SJSU 4th & 1 at NEV 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.0%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    37.7%−5.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−18.8
    average punt
  6. Q4 13:22NEV 4th & 3 at SJSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−1.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−15.2
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:28NEV 4th & 7 at SJSU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−21.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:41SJSU 4th & 2 at SJSU 33, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:28NEV 4th & 9 at SJSU 44, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    72.1%−2.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:08NEV 4th & 6 at SJSU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−7.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−10.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:41NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:31SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:56SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:40NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:48SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:50NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:16NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:53SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:50SJSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1833% → 36%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.3%
Patrick Garwo III run for 2 yds to the NEV 27Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
67.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 12 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
67.1%
Patrick Garwo III run for 5 yds to the NEV 44Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+13
67.0%
Chubba Purdy pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 13 yds to the SJSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
66.8%
Savion Red run for 25 yds to the SJSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
66.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
66.6%
Ky Woods run for 8 yds to the SJSU 10Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
66.6%
Savion Red run for 3 yds to the SJSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
66.3%
Patrick Garwo III run for 2 yds to the SJSU 5Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
66.1%
Patrick Garwo III run for 2 yds to the SJSU 3Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 2TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:0365% → 67%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
64.9%
Emmett Brown run for no gain to the SJSU 26Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
64.6%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 6 yds to the SJSU 32Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+14
64.2%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 14 yds to the SJSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
64.5%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 12 yds to the NEV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
64.5%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 9 yds to the NEV 33Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
64.7%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
64.3%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 2 yds to the NEV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
64.4%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 7 yds to the NEV 24Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 3
OPP 24
-5
64.2%
San José State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NEV 29Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+15
64.0%
Nevada Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Keyshawn Cobb) to the NEV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
64.0%
Jabari Bates run for 4 yds to the NEV 10Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
63.8%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+9
63.2%
Jabari Bates run for 9 yds to the NEV 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.3%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5434% → 34%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
65.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 6 yds to the NEV 25Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
65.2%
Brendon Lewis run for no gain to the NEV 25Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+1
65.3%
Brendon Lewis run for 1 yd to the NEV 26Similar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
65.7%
Guy Gillespie punt for 50 yds, downed at the SJSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:2066% → 72%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
65.7%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+10
65.6%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 10 yds to the SJSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
65.8%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
65.7%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:24
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+10
65.1%
(00:24) BROWN, Emmett pass to the right incomplete intended for NASH, Nick thrown to the SJSU45; QB hurried by WATTS, Drue, clock 00:19. PENALTY NEV Holding on BROWN, Chad enforced 10 yards from the SJSU34 to the SJSU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
66.7%
Jabari Bates run for 8 yds to the NEV 48Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+1
67.1%
Jabari Bates run for 1 yd to the NEV 47Similar
Q2 14:29
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+6
66.7%
Jabari Bates run for 6 yds to the NEV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
67.0%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 5 yds to the NEV 36Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+12
67.1%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 12 yds to the NEV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
72.2%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 24 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 4:2830% → 28%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
70.1%
(12:47) RED, Savion rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the NEV32 (HAMPSTEN, Dylan;WALLACE, Amir), clock 12:41. PENALTY Before the snap, NEV Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the NEV30 to the NEV25. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 15
OWN 25
-7
70.5%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Soane Toia for a loss of 7 yards to the NEV 18Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 22
OWN 18
+8
70.8%
Savion Red run for 8 yds to the NEV 26Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+21
71.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 21 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
69.3%
Marcus Bellon run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 7
50
-8
69.3%
Brendon Lewis sacked by John Ward for a loss of 8 yards to the NEV 42Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+4
71.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 4 yds to the NEV 46Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
72.2%
Guy Gillespie punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:3972% → 71%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
72.4%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 5 yds to the SJSU 20Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+9
72.0%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 9 yds to the SJSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
72.4%
Emmett Brown run for 5 yds to the SJSU 34Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
73.0%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 5
OWN 34
-15
71.9%
(06:31) BROWN, Emmett pass short to the left complete for 8 yards to NASH, Nick caught at the SJSU38 and advanced to the SJSU42 (COBB, Keyshawn;MALDONADO, Jonathan), out of bounds, clock 06:25. PENALTY SJSU Pass Interference on COLEMAN, Matthew enforced 15 yards to the SJSU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 20
OWN 19
-4
71.4%
Jabari Bates run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSU 15Similar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 24
OWN 15
0
70.8%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the SJSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:4830% → 44%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
69.6%
Patrick Garwo III run for 1 yd to the SJSU 46Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+5
69.7%
Patrick Garwo III run for 5 yds to the SJSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
68.1%
Marcus Bellon run for 6 yds to the SJSU 20 for a 1ST down San José State Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Yards) to the SJSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
56.3%
Brendon Lewis run for 10 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:4366% → 74%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
66.0%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Sebastian Macaluso for 2 yds to the SJSU 47Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
66.0%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 1 yd to the SJSU 48Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+15
64.7%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 15 yds to the NEV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
66.3%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
74.1%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 37 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 0:5228% → 46%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
71.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 15 yds to the SJSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
70.1%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+20
70.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 20 yds to the SJSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
68.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Andrew Savaiinaea for 5 yds to the SJSU 19Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+14
68.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 14 yds to the SJSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
54.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10END OF HALF
9 plays · 60 yds · 0:4763% → 66%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.0%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
62.7%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 14 yds to the SJSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
64.3%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
63.9%
Emmett Brown run for 8 yds to the SJSU 47Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+13
64.5%
Emmett Brown pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 13 yds to the NEV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
65.9%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+25
65.8%
Emmett Brown pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 25 yds to the NEV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5964% → 61%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
63.5%
Floyd Chalk IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSU 23Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
63.2%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 2 yds to the SJSU 25Similar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
61.8%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
60.9%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 4:3842% → 61%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
58.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 11 yds to the NEV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
56.6%
(13:31) RED, Savion rush up the middle for a gain of 11 yards to the SJSU40 (LATU, Taniela), clock 13:24. PENALTY NEV Chop Block enforced 15 yards from the NEV49 to the NEV34 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 25
OWN 34
+2
59.4%
Marcus Bellon run for 2 yds to the NEV 36Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 23
OWN 36
+24
59.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 24 yds to the SJSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
56.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 5 yds to the SJSU 35Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+3
54.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Savion Red for 3 yds to the SJSU 32Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+3
55.8%
Savion Red run for 3 yds to the SJSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
54.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 15 yds to the SJSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
39.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 14 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13TD
16 plays · 84 yds · 6:1745% → 63%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
45.2%
Emmett Brown run for 7 yds to the SJSU 23Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
45.5%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+5
44.3%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jacob Stewart for 5 yds to the SJSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
45.1%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
44.4%
Floyd Chalk IV run for a loss of 10 yards to the SJSU 18 for a 1ST down Nevada Penalty, Personal Foul (Drue Watts) to the SJSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
44.8%
(07:29) BROWN, Emmett pass short to the left incomplete dropped by BATES, Jabari thrown to the SJSU37, clock 07:25. PENALTY SJSU Holding enforced 10 yards from the SJSU33 to the SJSU23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+16
43.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 16 yds to the SJSU 39Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+14
47.0%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 14 yds to the NEV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
47.9%
Jabari Bates run for 18 yds to the NEV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
50.2%
Walker Eget pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 9 yds to the NEV 20Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+6
49.9%
Walker Eget pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 6 yds to the NEV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
49.4%
Walker Eget pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 9 yds to the NEV 5Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 1
OPP 5
-4
49.0%
Walker Eget run for a loss of 4 yards to the NEV 9Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+4
46.4%
Floyd Chalk IV run for 4 yds to the NEV 5Similar
Q3 2:53
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+5
62.9%
Floyd Chalk IV 5 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 7:1343% → 62%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
56.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 14 yds to the NEV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
53.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Savion Red for 20 yds to the SJSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
51.5%
Savion Red run for 5 yds to the SJSU 36Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
50.7%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+7
51.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 7 yds to the SJSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
48.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
49.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 3 yds to the SJSU 26Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+4
51.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Patrick Garwo III for 4 yds to the SJSU 22Similar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+11
52.9%
Savion Red run for 11 yds to the SJSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
47.5%
Ky Woods run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSU 13Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 12
OPP 13
-1
48.0%
Patrick Garwo III run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSU 14Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+6
51.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Patrick Garwo III for 6 yds to the SJSU 8Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
38.1%
Matthew Killam 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4642% → 41%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
42.4%
Walker Eget pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 8 yds to the SJSU 33Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
45.7%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
43.7%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
41.1%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the NEV 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
14 plays · 32 yds · 7:0662% → 79%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
37.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the NEV 30Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
34.9%
Savion Red run for 3 yds to the NEV 33Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+12
34.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 22 yds to the SJSU 45 Nevada Penalty, Offensive Holding (Henry Ikahihifo) to the NEV 32Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+12
34.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 12 yds to the NEV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
30.2%
Savion Red run for 3 yds to the NEV 47Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+1
28.9%
Savion Red run for 1 yd to the NEV 48Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+5
27.2%
San José State Penalty, Offsides (Soane Toia) to the SJSU 47Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
23.9%
Patrick Garwo III run for 2 yds to the SJSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
22.8%
Patrick Garwo III run for 3 yds to the SJSU 42Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+2
22.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Ky Woods for 2 yds to the SJSU 40Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+1
20.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 1 yd to the SJSU 39Similar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 4
OPP 39
-5
19.8%
Nevada Penalty, Delay Of Game (Henry Ikahihifo) to the SJSU 44Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
20.7%
Guy Gillespie punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:3032% → 95%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
32.2%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
31.4%
Emmett Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-1
29.4%
Walker Eget pass complete to Sebastian Macaluso for 14 yds to the SJSU 34 for a 1ST down San José State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the SJSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
29.3%
Walker Eget pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 6 yds to the SJSU 25Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+8
27.8%
Walker Eget pass complete to Nick Nash for 8 yds to the SJSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
27.9%
Walker Eget pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+51
26.3%
Walker Eget pass complete to Sebastian Macaluso for 51 yds to the NEV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
95.0%
Nick Nash pass complete to Jabari Bates for 16 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18INT
8 plays · 46 yds · 0:4119% → 26%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Andrew Savaiinaea for 3 yds to the NEV 28Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+39
82.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jaden Smith for 39 yds to the SJSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
70.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
70.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+4
72.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Nathaneal Floyd for 4 yds to the SJSU 29Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 6
OPP 29
0
73.7%
Brendon Lewis pass intercepted, touchback. Robert Rahimi return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
96.2%
[NH] Kneel down by EGET, Walker at SJSU19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:50
Nick Nash pass complete to Jabari Bates for 16 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)
+68.7
TD · Q3 2:53
Floyd Chalk IV 5 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)
+21.4
TD · Q3 9:16
Brendon Lewis run for 14 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)
-15.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com