Western Kentucky

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1244th
  Defense+0.1338th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.8%38th
  Defense44.7%24th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3275th
  Defense+1.1683rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.059th
  Defense+0.1140th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2778th
  Defense+0.2131st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.6%42nd
  Defense50.9%17th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.8%33rd
  Defense28.9%69th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7719th
  Defense3.3513th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.9%24th
  Defense12.5%8th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.2%46th
  Defense12.4%6th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Western Kentucky allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   ALA
2. W
   EKU
3. W
   MTSU
4. W
   TOL
5. L
   BC
6. W
   UTEP
7. W
   SHSU
8. W
   KENN
9. W
   NMSU
10. L
    LT
11. L
    LIB
12. W
    JXST
13. L
    JXST
14. L
    JMU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Western Kentucky.

Players, 2024

1. Caden VeltkampQB437 plays · +0.250 pts/play · 26th of 232 QBs
   2.04WAR1.16 to 2.89
2. Elijah YoungRB198 plays · +0.133 pts/play · 26th of 373 RBs
   0.49WAR0.34 to 0.66
3. Easton MesserWR52 plays · +0.184 pts/play · 57th of 452 WRs
   0.18WAR0.07 to 0.28
4. Lucas CarneiroPK13 plays · +0.358 pts/play · 47th of 114 kickers
   0.09WAR0.05 to 0.12
5. Kisean JohnsonWR70 plays · +0.062 pts/play · 174th of 452 WRs
   0.08WAR−0.07 to 0.25
6. Dalvin SmithWR28 plays · +0.132 pts/play · 197th of 452 WRs
   0.07WAR−0.01 to 0.14
7. River HelmsTE14 plays · +0.191 pts/play · 60th of 221 TEs
   0.05WAR0.02 to 0.09
8. Cole MaynardP42 plays · +0.061 pts/play · 62nd of 106 punters
   0.05WAR0.00 to 0.10

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Western Kentucky's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  519519107th of 131Roster talent: 519, 107th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  9494125th of 131Recruiting: 94, 125th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  38%38%81st of 130Returning production: 38%, 81st of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −2.2−2.276th of 131SP+ rating: −2.2, 76th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Western Kentucky's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.06 of the 0.10 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs JXSTQ4 4:35 4th & 6 at WKU 49, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.4 pts
2. vs JXSTQ3 7:31 4th & 3 at JXST 3, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
3. vs TOLQ2 11:17 4th & 1 at WKU 26, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
4. at BCQ4 3:15 4th & 10 at WKU 8, down 1Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.8 pts
5. at NMSUQ4 14:11 4th & 3 at NMSU 48, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
6. vs UTEPQ2 0:13 4th & 3 at UTEP 30, up 17Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts
7. at JMUQ2 6:06 4th & 4 at JMU 46, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. vs TOLQ3 6:27 4th & 3 at WKU 43, down 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

61st of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Western Kentucky's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   ALA
2. W

   EKU
3. W

   MTSU
4. W

   TOL
5. L

   BC
6. W

   UTEP
7. W

   SHSU
8. W

   KENN
9. W

   NMSU
10. L

    LT
11. L

    LIB
12. W

    JXST
13. L

    JXST
14. L

    JMU

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Western Kentucky's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.04
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.01
• Timeouts+0.13
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.14

Game by game

• ALAL 0-63 at ALA2% → 0%Before kickoff −48 · On the field −2: Scoreboard −3
• EKUW 31-0 vs EKU89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +14
• MTSUW 49-21 at MTSU70% → 100%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +34, Clock +1
• TOLW 26-21 vs TOL41% → 96%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts +4
• BCL 20-21 at BC26% → 14%Before kickoff −24 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −20, Timeouts +3
• UTEPW 44-17 vs UTEP89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +14
• SHSUW 31-14 at SHSU46% → 99%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +53: Scoreboard +55, Clock +2
• KENNW 31-14 vs KENN94% → 99%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +12, Timeouts −1
• NMSUW 41-28 at NMSU91% → 99%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +17, Clock +1
• LTL 7-12 vs LT79% → 4%Before kickoff +29 · On the field −75: Scoreboard −60, Clock −3
• LIBL 21-38 at LIB42% → 1%Before kickoff −8 · On the field −41: Scoreboard −43, Timeouts +2
• JXSTW 19-17 vs JXST52% → 76%Before kickoff +2 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +14, Possession & field position +2
• JXSTL 12-52 at JXST40% → 0%Before kickoff −10 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −40
• JMUL 17-27 at JMU34% → 2%Before kickoff −16 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −36, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Western Kentucky's side.

Closest call

WKU 38-35 ODU (2023) - Western Kentucky dropped to a 2.4% win probability before pulling it out.