2024 · Week 10 · Oct 30, 2024 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadKENN aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreKENN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:08 · Cole Maynard punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jayven Williams at the KENN 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:28: Michael Benefield run for 37 yds for a TD (Austin Welch KICK) — KENN win probability +1.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:16: Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 64 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +1.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:00: George Hart III run for 30 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +1.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:46: Lucas Carneiro 32 yd FG GOOD — WKU win probability +2.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:19: Davis Bryson 20 Yd Run (Austin Welch Kick) — KENN win probability +2.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6KENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 8:41KENN 4th & 9 at KENN 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snapGo for it7.8%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q1 6:46WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 13, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snapGo for it91.6%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.7%average punt
- Q1 3:41WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt89.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:12KENN 4th & 5 at KENN 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snapGo for it8.9%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q2 9:31KENN 4th & 16 at KENN 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.1%−0.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q2 3:46WKU 4th & 6 at KENN 10, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.2% before the snapGo for it91.9%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call92.0%88% to makePunt89.6%−2.4average punt
- Q2 1:54KENN 4th & 3 at KENN 48, down 17Close callPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.9%−0.5average punt
- Q2 0:56WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 22, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snapGo for it93.3%−1.035% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.3%average punt
- Q2 0:20KENN 4th & 12 at WKU 46, down 17Close callPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.2%−0.223% to convertField goal6.4%23% to makePuntTheir call6.2%−0.2average punt
- Q3 11:06KENN 4th & 10 at WKU 46, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.4%−0.330% to convertField goal5.0%−0.823% to makePuntTheir call5.8%average punt
- Q3 7:21WKU 4th & 1 at KENN 13, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.7%71% to convertField goal94.9%−0.985% to makePunt92.0%−3.7average punt
- Q4 6:04KENN 4th & 9 at KENN 40, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q4 3:01KENN 4th & 12 at KENN 47, down 17Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.7%average punt
- Q4 1:08WKU 4th & 5 at WKU 46, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q4 0:00KENN 4th & 17 at KENN 5, down 17Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.3%12% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:54WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:28KENN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.5%97% to makeGo for two9.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:16WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.0%97% to makeGo for two91.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:00WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.3%97% to makeGo for two92.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:19KENN Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.0%97% to makeGo for two1.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWKUDrive 1TD9 plays · 79 yds · 2:4894% → 93%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
93.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 8 yds to the WKU 29Similar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+44
93.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 44 yds to the KENN 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
93.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Trevor Borland for 5 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 2:507% → 7%
WKUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3993% → 92%
KENNDrive 4TD3 plays · 44 yds · 1:108% → 9%
WKUDrive 5TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5991% → 92%
KENNDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:518% → 8%
Q1 2:12
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+4
91.7%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 50 yds , K.D. Hutchinson returns for 4 yds to the WKU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7TD6 plays · 78 yds · 2:0592% → 93%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
91.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 25 yds to the KENN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 30 yds · 5:157% → 8%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
92.2%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Qua Ashley for 9 yds to the KENN 46Similar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
50
-6
91.8%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Qua Ashley for a loss of 6 yards to the KENN 44Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
92.5%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 41 yds , K.D. Hutchinson returns for no gain to the WKU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9FG12 plays · 78 yds · 5:3293% → 95%
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
92.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Elijah Young for 14 yds to the WKU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
92.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 10 yds to the KENN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
92.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 4 yds to the KENN 10Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 5
OPP 9
-1
92.6%
Caden Veltkamp sacked by Ugonna Nwoha for a loss of 1 yard to the KENN 10 Caden Veltkamp fumbled, recovered by WKU Caden Veltkamp , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:387% → 7%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
93.5%
Davis Bryson run for 23 yds to the WKU 36 Kennesaw State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Carson Kent) to the KENN 35Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+11
94.1%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Carson Kent for 11 yds to the KENN 48Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
93.5%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 33 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5595% → 95%
Q2 0:56
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
94.8%
Cole Maynard punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jayven Williams at the KENN 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:317% → 6%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
93.2%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 16 yds to the WKU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 3:486% → 5%
Q3 11:06
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
94.7%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 36 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15Uncategorized3 plays · 11 yds · 0:3096% → 95%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
95.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 7 yds to the WKU 17Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+4
95.4%
(10:29) No Huddle Veltkamp,Caden pass intercepted by Walker,Pooda at WKU20, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY KSU Pass Interference 4 yards from WKU17 to WKU21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16DOWNS11 plays · 61 yds · 1:5496% → 96%
Q3 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
96.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 9 yds to the KENN 39Similar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
96.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 8 yds to the KENN 28Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+6
96.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Elijah Young for 6 yds to the KENN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+8
96.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 8 yds to the KENN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 22 yds · 16:175% → 1%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
95.2%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 2 yds to the KENN 30Similar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
95.0%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Tykeem Wallace for 1 yd to the KENN 40Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
99.4%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 40 yds , K.D. Hutchinson returns for no gain to the WKU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18TD5 plays · 81 yds · 7:0999% → 99%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.1%
Noah Meyers 17 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+13
99.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Cameron Flowers for 13 yds to the WKU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
99.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Michael Mathison for 30 yds to the KENN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 19TD17 plays · 82 yds · 2:533% → 2%
Q4 4:24
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+6
98.0%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Preston Daniels for 6 yds to the KENN 36Similar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
98.0%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Michael Benefield for 7 yds to the KENN 46Similar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
97.9%
Davis Bryson run for 2 yds to the KENN 47 Davis Bryson fumbled, recovered by KENN Davis BrysonSimilar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+17
97.9%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Carson Kent for 17 yds to the WKU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 20INT7 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
97.9%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Blake Bohannon for 7 yds to the WKU 47Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+6
97.6%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Carson Kent for 6 yds to the WKU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
97.6%
Davis Bryson sacked by Hosea Wheeler for a loss of 3 yards to the WKU 44Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 13
OPP 44
-7
97.8%
Davis Bryson sacked by Darius Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the KENN 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5299% → 99%
Q4 1:08
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
99.3%
Cole Maynard punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jayven Williams at the KENN 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 22PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
98.3%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Jaden Robinson for 9 yds to the KENN 21Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 21
-12
98.3%
Davis Bryson sacked by Darius Thomas for a loss of 12 yards to the KENN 9Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 13
OWN 9
-4
98.4%
PENALTY KSU Delay Of Game (Ulrich,Jacob) 4 yards from KSU09 to KSU05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 17
OWN 5
+4
98.4%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 50 yds , K.D. Hutchinson returns for 4 yds to the WKU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 3:46
Lucas Carneiro 32 yd FG GOOD
+2.7
TD · Q4 5:19
Davis Bryson 20 Yd Run (Austin Welch Kick)
-2.2
TD · Q1 0:00
George Hart III run for 30 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
+1.7