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WKU

Western Kentucky 41 at New Mexico State 28

NMSU
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:52 · Cole Maynard punt for 49 yds , Jordan Smith returns for no gain to the NMSU 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Pregame prior−21.4Home team on offense−13.4Score differential−6.9Garbage-time factor−3.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:01: Mike Washington run for 1 yd for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK) — NMSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:14: Mike Washington run for 3 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK) — NMSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:28: Seth McGowan run for 7 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK) — NMSU win probability +17.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q3 0:59: Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +10.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:58: Caden Veltkamp pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 28 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +7.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q2 10:40WKU 4th & 9 at NMSU 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    85.7%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  2. Q2 7:04NMSU 4th & 11 at WKU 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.2%
    40% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:51NMSU 4th & 1 at WKU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−1.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    13.8%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q3 11:58NMSU 4th & 18 at NMSU 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 7:52WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 0:01NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:11WKU 4th & 3 at NMSU 48, up 10
    Close callPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 8:37NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 20, down 17
    Close callPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:49WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:03WKU 4th & 9 at NMSU 35, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:58WKU 4th & 1 at NMSU 42, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:07WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:59WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:01NMSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:52WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:14NMSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:28NMSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:59WKU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:58WKU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:55NMSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:4991% → 90%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
9.2%
Bryce Childress run for 3 yds to the WKU 33Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
9.2%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the WKU 36Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+10
9.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 10 yds to the WKU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
9.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 54 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
9.7%
Santino Marucci pass intercepted Dallas Walker return for 2 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 28 yds · 3:0190% → 90%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
9.6%
Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the NMSU 24Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
9.6%
George Hart III run for no gain to the NMSU 24Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+19
9.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Noah Meyers for 19 yds to the NMSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
9.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 3 yds to the NMSU 2Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
9.6%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the NMSU 1Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.7%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 6:5210% → 13%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
9.9%
Mike Washington run for 10 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
9.9%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-1
10.0%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 41Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+14
9.9%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Tim Gans for 14 yds to the WKU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
10.0%
Santino Marucci run for 4 yds to the WKU 41Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
10.0%
Santino Marucci run for 2 yds to the WKU 39Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+12
10.0%
Santino Marucci pass complete to TJ Pride for 12 yds to the WKU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
10.1%
Santino Marucci run for 11 yds to the WKU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
10.1%
Tim Gans run for 7 yds to the WKU 9Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
10.1%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the WKU 7Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+5
10.0%
Brandon Nunez run for 5 yds to the WKU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
10.1%
Brandon Nunez run for 1 yd to the WKU 1Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.4%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 3:0388% → 90%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
12.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
12.2%
Elijah Young run for 6 yds to the WKU 27Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+7
12.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 7 yds to the WKU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
11.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 7 yds to the WKU 41Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
11.7%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the WKU 43Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+6
12.3%
George Hart III run for 6 yds to the WKU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
10.1%
Dalvin Smith pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 51 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6INT
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:5211% → 11%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
10.7%
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
10.7%
Mike Washington run for 8 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
10.9%
Mike Washington run for 11 yds to the NMSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
11.2%
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the WKU 49Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
11.2%
Brandon Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-22
10.9%
Santino Marucci pass intercepted Anthony Johnson Jr. return for 22 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2090% → 90%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
10.1%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-1
10.1%
Elijah Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 42Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
10.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
10.4%
Cole Maynard punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8MISSED FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:3611% → 11%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
10.5%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the NMSU 24Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+25
10.5%
Mike Washington run for 25 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
11.2%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the WKU 47 Mike Washington fumbled, recovered by NMSU return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+11
11.1%
Santino Marucci pass complete to TJ Pride for 11 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
11.2%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the WKU 31Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-6
11.4%
Jordan Smith run for a loss of 6 yards to the WKU 37Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 11
OPP 37
0
11.0%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 11
OPP 37
+54
10.9%
Abraham Montano 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9INT
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:4090% → 90%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
10.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 7 yds to the WKU 44Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
10.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass intercepted Da'Marcus Crosby return for no gain to the NMSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10FUMBLE
13 plays · 46 yds · 5:2111% → 12%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
10.9%
Seth McGowan run for 12 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
11.4%
Tim Gans run for 4 yds to the WKU 47Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-5
11.4%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMSU 48Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 12
OPP 14
-3
11.4%
Brandon Nunez run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKU 17 Brandon Nunez fumbled, recovered by WKU Hosea Wheeler H. Wheeler return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+10
11.1%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Seth McGowan for 10 yds to the WKU 42Similar
Q2 3:51
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
11.5%
Brandon Nunez run for 2 yds to the WKU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
11.7%
Brandon Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
11.6%
Brandon Nunez run for no gain to the WKU 40Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+15
11.4%
Brandon Nunez run for 15 yds to the WKU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
12.0%
Seth McGowan run for 13 yds to the WKU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
12.0%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Seth McGowan for 3 yds to the WKU 9Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-5
12.1%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WKU 14Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 12
OPP 14
0
12.1%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 5:5389% → 94%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+18
10.7%
Elijah Young run for 18 yds to the WKU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
10.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 13 yds to the WKU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
10.1%
Elijah Young run for 9 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
10.0%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
7.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 3 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
7.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to George Hart III for 5 yds to the NMSU 35Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+7
7.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 7 yds to the NMSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
6.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 4 yds to the NMSU 24Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+42
5.8%
Lucas Carneiro 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:029% → 9%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.4%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
9.5%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
9.8%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the NMSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
10.0%
Tim Gans run for 5 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
10.3%
Tim Gans run for 2 yds to the NMSU 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-15
10.1%
Santino Marucci run for a loss of 15 yards to the NMSU 30Similar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 18
OWN 30
0
8.9%
George Eberle punt for 43 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
8.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass intercepted Dakerric Hobbs return for no gain to the WKU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 2:3810% → 18%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
10.2%
Seth McGowan run for 19 yds to the WKU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
10.5%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the WKU 14Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+4
10.5%
Brandon Nunez run for 4 yds to the WKU 10Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+7
10.3%
Seth McGowan run for 7 yds to the WKU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
17.8%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1585% → 84%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
14.9%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the WKU 39Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
14.6%
Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the WKU 43Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
14.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
15.7%
Cole Maynard punt for 49 yds , Jordan Smith returns for no gain to the NMSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 92 yds · 2:2415% → 34%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
15.0%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the NMSU 11Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+47
15.1%
Mike Washington run for 47 yds to the WKU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
17.2%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
17.1%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Tim Gans for 1 yd to the WKU 41Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+34
16.5%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Seth McGowan for 34 yds to the WKU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
34.3%
Seth McGowan run for 7 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2973% → 88%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
26.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 7 yds to the WKU 32Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
25.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 9 yds to the WKU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
24.6%
Caden Veltkamp sacked by Tyler Martinez for a loss of 6 yards to the WKU 35Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+5
26.6%
George Hart III run for 5 yds to the WKU 40Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+16
26.1%
Caden Veltkamp run for 16 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
23.0%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the NMSU 43Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+6
23.2%
Elijah Young run for 6 yds to the NMSU 37Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+34
22.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 34 yds to the NMSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
12.0%
Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5414% → 13%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
14.0%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
13.7%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the NMSU 18Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
13.1%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:01
4TH & 8
OWN 18
+13
12.8%
George Eberle punt for 50 yds , K.D. Hutchinson returns for 13 yds to the WKU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4987% → 85%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
12.9%
Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the WKU 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
13.0%
Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds to the NMSU 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
13.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
15.1%
Cole Maynard punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jordan Smith at the NMSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · 35 yds · 1:2614% → 15%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
13.9%
Santino Marucci run for 4 yds to the NMSU 20Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+16
13.9%
Seth McGowan run for 16 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
14.7%
Mike Washington run for 15 yds to the WKU 49 Mike Washington fumbled, recovered by WKU Devonte' Mathews D. Mathews return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:4788% → 96%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
11.9%
Elijah Young run for 10 yds to the NMSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
11.7%
YOUNG, Elijah rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the NMSU35 (CHARLES, Josiah). PENALTY WKU Holding on WIBBERLEY, Evan enforced 10 yards from the NMSU41 to the WKU49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+1
12.1%
Elijah Young run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 19
50
+21
12.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to George Hart III for 21 yds to the NMSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
11.2%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the NMSU 28Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
11.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+28
3.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 28 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:164% → 4%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
4.3%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the NMSU 16Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+4
4.3%
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the NMSU 20Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
4.3%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
4.2%
George Eberle punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4896% → 96%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
3.6%
Elijah Young run for no gain to the WKU 42Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
3.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+3
3.7%
Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds to the WKU 45Similar
Q4 7:49
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
3.7%
Cole Maynard punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordan Smith at the NMSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:254% → 4%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
4.2%
Mike Washington run for 9 yds to the NMSU 26Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+10
4.4%
Brandon Nunez run for 10 yds to the NMSU 36 Brandon Nunez fumbled, recovered by WKU Dave Herard D. Herard return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0797% → 99%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
3.3%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the NMSU 35Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-1
3.3%
Jalen Hampton run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 36Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+1
3.3%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the NMSU 35Similar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+53
1.1%
Lucas Carneiro 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:081% → 3%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.0%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.0%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
1.0%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 7 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
1.0%
Seth McGowan run for 12 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
1.1%
Santino Marucci run for 3 yds to the WKU 48Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
0.8%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+8
0.8%
Santino Marucci pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 8 yds to the WKU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
0.9%
Santino Marucci run for 11 yds to the WKU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
0.4%
Santino Marucci run for no gain to the WKU 29Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
2.7%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 29 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4998% → 99%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
2.1%
Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the NMSU 47Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
1.7%
George Hart III run for 5 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
1.2%
George Hart III run for no gain to the NMSU 42Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+8
1.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Elvin Fofanah for 8 yds to the NMSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
1.3%
[NH] Kneel down by VELTKAMP, Caden at NMSU35 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:28
Seth McGowan run for 7 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)
+17.7
TD · Q3 0:59
Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q4 9:58
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 28 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
-7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com