2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreWKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:44 · Cole Maynard punt for 47 yds , Brylan Green returns for 2 yds to the LIB 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:30: Billy Lucas run for 2 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +9.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:05: Quinton Cooley run for 22 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +13.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:10: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Julian Gray for 11 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +12.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:33: George Hart III run for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +13.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:44: Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 16 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +13.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 1 of 4WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:35LIB 4th & 10 at WKU 35, tiedClose callPunted · 55.1% before the snapGo for it55.1%−<0.130% to convertField goal55.1%45% to makePuntTheir call55.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:27LIB 4th & 7 at WKU 31, tiedClose callWent for it · 55.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call55.5%−<0.137% to convertField goal55.5%54% to makePunt55.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:00WKU 4th & 16 at LIB 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snapGo for it31.1%−0.616% to convertField goal31.7%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call31.7%average punt
- Q3 12:16WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 46, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt18.8%−1.9average punt
- Q4 11:13LIB 4th & 6 at WKU 11, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snapGo for it83.3%−0.335% to convertField goalTheir call83.6%87% to makePunt73.3%−10.4average punt
- Q4 9:44WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snapGo for it10.8%−1.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.0%average punt
- Q4 2:05WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 33, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 0:31LIB 4th & 2 at WKU 30, up 17Close callWent for it · 98.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.6%−<0.157% to convertField goal98.6%56% to makePunt98.3%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 13:17WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.9%97% to makeGo for two49.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:30LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.3%97% to makeGo for two54.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:05LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.7%97% to makeGo for two65.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:10LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.3%97% to makeGo for two78.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:33WKU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.6%97% to makeGo for two27.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:44LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.5%97% to makeGo for two83.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:44WKU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.2%97% to makeGo for two21.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 2:59LIB Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLIBDrive 1PUNT11 plays · 45 yds · 4:1458% → 59%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2INT2 plays · 4 yds · 0:3242% → 42%
LIBDrive 3DOWNS5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1859% → 59%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4INT9 plays · 54 yds · 3:5142% → 44%
Q1 8:02
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+15
58.0%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Elijah Young for 15 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
57.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 20 yds to the LIB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+4
56.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Elijah Young for 4 yds to the LIB 26Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+10
56.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 10 yds to the LIB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-3
56.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass intercepted Jerome Jolly Jr. return for 3 yds to the LIB 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5FUMBLE7 plays · 53 yds · 3:1959% → 60%
Q1 1:03
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+9
60.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 9 yds to the WKU 36 Quinton Cooley fumbled, recovered by WKU Devonte' Mathews D. Mathews return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD6 plays · 64 yds · 2:3543% → 52%
Q1 0:24
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+38
56.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 38 yds to the LIB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
54.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 4 yds to the LIB 9Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
48.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 9 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7TD9 plays · 92 yds · 3:4351% → 62%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
51.2%
(13:13) SALTER, Kaidon pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MOBLEY, Tyson thrown to the LU25, clock 13:08. PENALTY WKU Pass Interference on JOHNSON JR., Anthony enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the LU19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
50.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Vaughn Blue for 7 yds to the LIB 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8FUMBLE8 plays · 42 yds · 3:2944% → 47%
Q2 8:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+25
57.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 25 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
52.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 3 yds Kisean Johnson fumbled, recovered by LIB Bryce Dixon B. Dixon return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9TD9 plays · 67 yds · 3:4860% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 1:0429% → 26%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Elijah Young for 7 yds to the WKU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11TD11 plays · 90 yds · 0:4476% → 77%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
68.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 16 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
68.7%
Western Kentucky Penalty, Personal Foul (Marcus Patterson) to the WKU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
76.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Julian Gray for 11 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
71.2%
(00:10) [NHSG] Kneel down by VELTKAMP, Caden at WKU24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:03.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2620% → 34%
Q3 14:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
79.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 7 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
80.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 9 yds to the WKU 46Similar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+32
80.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 32 yds to the LIB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
79.0%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 18 yds to the LIB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14TD2 plays · 38 yds · 0:3874% → 84%
WKUDrive 15TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:5918% → 33%
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
81.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to L.T. Sanders for 1 yd to the WKU 46Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+11
81.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 11 yds to the LIB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
80.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 7 yds to the LIB 36Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+11
82.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 11 yds to the LIB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+16
67.0%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 16 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16FG16 plays · 61 yds · 7:2377% → 91%
WKUDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 1:2816% → 10%
LIBDrive 18TD15 plays · 86 yds · 6:3493% → 99%
Q4 5:09
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+14
96.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Donte Lee Jr. for 14 yds to the WKU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19DOWNS4 plays · 13 yds · 0:532% → 2%
Q4 2:05
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
98.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass intercepted Kisean Johnson return for no gain to the WKU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20END OF GAME5 plays · 37 yds · 1:3099% → 99%
Q4 0:31
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+29
99.3%
Ryan Burger pass complete to Treon Sibley for 29 yds to the WKU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:44
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 16 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q3 10:33
George Hart III run for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
-13.3
TD · Q2 2:05
Quinton Cooley run for 22 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
+13.1