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VAN

Vanderbilt 31 at Western Kentucky 30

WKU
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Mike White pass complete to Shaquille Johnson for 8 yds for a TD, (Mike White intercepted )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:15: Ralph Webb run for 2 yds for a TD WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +15.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:33: Anthony Wales run for 20 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK) — WKU win probability +21.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 5:29: Tommy Openshaw 22 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +15.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:00: Ralph Webb run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +42.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 5 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +17.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00WKU 4th & 1 at VAN 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:06VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:28WKU 4th & 17 at WKU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:56VAN 4th & 19 at VAN 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00WKU 4th & 4 at VAN 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    72.4%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:30VAN 4th & 11 at WKU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:25WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:15WKU 4th & 1 at VAN 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.7%−2.8
    77% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−11.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:08VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 10, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:20WKU 4th & 2 at VAN 8, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%−2.5
    90% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−14.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00VAN 4th & 9 at WKU 34, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:33VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 25, down 7
    Close callPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:35WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 29, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%−3.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:29VAN 4th & 4 at WKU 4, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.3%−4.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−15.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:02WKU 4th & 8 at VAN 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−10.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:06WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:18WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:16VAN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:15VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:33WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:00VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:5468% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.6%
Taywan Taylor run for 9 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
67.6%
Mike White pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 2 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
67.6%
Mike White pass incomplete to Nicholas Norris, broken up by Torren McGasterSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
67.6%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 4 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+10
67.6%
Mike White pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+12
67.6%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 12 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
67.6%
Mike White pass incomplete to Nicholas NorrisSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
67.6%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 15 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
67.6%
Mike White pass incomplete, broken up by Nifae LealaoSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
67.6%
Mike White pass incomplete to Anthony Wales, broken up by Nifae LealaoSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+9
67.6%
Mike White pass complete to Shaquille Johnson for 9 yds to the Vandy 14Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+10
67.6%
Nicholas Norris run for 10 yds to the Vandy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
67.6%
Mike White pass incomplete to Taywan TaylorSimilar
Q1 11:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
68.9%
Anthony Wales run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Nuss KICK) VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
68.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 7 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-6
68.2%
Darrius Sims run for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
68.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Darrius Sims, broken up by T.J. McCollumSimilar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
68.6%
Sam Loy punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKent 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
69.3%
Nacarius Fant run for 5 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+6
69.4%
Anthony Wales run for 6 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
69.4%
WHITE, Mike pass complete to DONATELL, S. for 9 yards to the VANDY39 (Zach Cunningham), PENALTY WKU ineligible downfield on pass (HALPIN, Max) 5 yards to the WKU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+4
69.2%
Mike White pass complete to Stevie Donatell for 4 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-5
69.2%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Shaquille Johnson) to the WKent 46Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 16
OWN 46
-1
69.1%
Mike White sacked by Oren Burks for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 45Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 17
OWN 45
0
68.9%
Mike White pass incomplete to Stevie DonatellSimilar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 17
OWN 45
+3
68.6%
Jake Collins punt for 45 yds , Kalija Lipscomb returns for 3 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
69.5%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+14
69.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 21 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (De'Andre Simmons) to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
69.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, broken up by Omarius BryantSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-7
69.3%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Drell Greene for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+10
69.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Leverick Johnson return for 10 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
70.9%
Quinton Baker run for 2 yds to the Vandy 44 Quinton Baker fumbled, forced by Arnold Tarpley, recovered by Vandy Torren McGasterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
69.1%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
68.7%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the WKent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
68.8%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 47 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 13
OPP 47
-9
69.3%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Keith Brown for a loss of 9 yards to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 22
OWN 44
+3
69.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Sam Dobbs for 3 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 19
OWN 47
+38
70.2%
Sam Loy punt for 38 yds , Nacarius Fant returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7FUMBLE
11 plays · 81 yds · 0:2470% → 71%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
70.4%
Anthony Wales run for 2 yds to the WKent 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+11
70.5%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 11 yds to the WKent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
70.6%
Anthony Wales run for 4 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+7
70.8%
Anthony Wales run for 7 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
71.2%
Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 15 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
71.6%
Mike White pass complete to Shaquille Johnson for 2 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 0
+15
70.4%
WHITE, Mike pass complete to TAYLOR, Taywan for no gain to the VANDY45 (Torren McGaster), PENALTY WKU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, PENALTY VANDY personal foul (Torren McGaster) 15 yards to the VANDY35, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
71.8%
Mike White pass incomplete to Anthony WalesSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
71.7%
Mike White pass incomplete to Nacarius Fant, broken up by Tre HerndonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+6
71.2%
Mike White run for 6 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+12
70.6%
Mike White pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 24 yds Nicholas Norris fumbled, forced by Taurean Ferguson, recovered by Vandy Tre Herndon , return for 27 yds to the Vandy 2 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Jimmie Sims) to the Vandy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
69.3%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 7
50
+3
69.0%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+7
69.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 7 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
69.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-1
69.0%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 41Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
70.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph Webb, broken up by Joel IyiegbuniweSimilar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
71.0%
Sam Loy punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Nacarius Fant at the WKent 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 92 yds · 3:1271% → 80%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+31
71.0%
Nicholas Norris run for 16 yds to the WKent 24 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, personal foul (Oren Burks) to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
79.9%
Tyler Ferguson pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 61 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10TD
15 plays · 76 yds · 6:0222% → 30%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
77.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-1
77.9%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 23Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+31
78.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 31 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
76.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, PENALTY WKU offside 5 yards to the WKU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 5
OPP 41
+5
76.5%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside (Omarius Bryant) to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
76.8%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the WKent 35Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
76.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Nathan MarcusSimilar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+11
76.9%
Kyle Shurmur run for 11 yds to the WKent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
75.8%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the WKent 18Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+3
75.8%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the WKent 15Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+5
76.5%
Khari Blasingame run for 5 yds to the WKent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
75.8%
Khari Blasingame run for 4 yds to the WKent 6Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
75.8%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the WKent 4Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.1%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:5174% → 75%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
73.9%
Anthony Wales run for 3 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
75.0%
Anthony Wales run for 2 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
75.3%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Darrell Williams Jr.) to the WKent 35Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+8
74.0%
Tyler Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Wales for 8 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
74.5%
Jake Collins punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0026% → 28%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
74.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 2 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+10
74.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija Lipscomb, PENALTY WKU pass interference (BROWN, Joe) 10 yards to the VANDY35, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
73.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 5 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-6
72.2%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Joel Iyiegbuniwe for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:4527% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
73.2%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
73.4%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
74.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 14 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
71.9%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+38
72.0%
Ralph Webb run for 38 yds to the WKent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
69.0%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+5
69.4%
Kyle Shurmur run for 5 yds to the WKent 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+11
70.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 11 yds to the WKent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
69.0%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the WKent 2Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.8%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds for a TD WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14INT
14 plays · 64 yds · 0:0062% → 66%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
62.2%
Mike White pass complete to Anthony Wales for 8 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
64.2%
Anthony Wales run for 9 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
64.6%
Anthony Wales run for a loss of 8 yards to the WKent 34 Anthony Wales fumbled, recovered by WKent Anthony WalesSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+15
61.9%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 15 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+5
64.5%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 5 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
66.0%
Anthony Wales run for 18 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
66.9%
Mike White pass incomplete to Taywan Taylor, broken up by Taurean FergusonSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
66.8%
Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 9 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
65.6%
Mike White pass incomplete to Stevie Donatell, broken up by Dare OdeyingboSimilar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+8
64.0%
Nicholas Norris run for 8 yds to the Vandy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
66.9%
Mike White pass incomplete to Nicholas NorrisSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
66.9%
Mike White pass incomplete to Anthony Wales, broken up by Adam ButlerSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+1
65.5%
Mike White pass intercepted Tre Herndon return for no gain to the Vandy 11 VANDERBILT Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tre Herndon) to the Vandy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
58.7%
Khari Blasingame run for 6 yds to the Vandy 7Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+3
59.0%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the Vandy 10Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 1
OWN 10
0
59.9%
Khari Blasingame run for no gain to the Vandy 10Similar
Q3 5:08
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
61.1%
Sam Loy punt, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16MISSED FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5066% → 62%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
66.4%
Anthony Wales run for 4 yds to the Vandy 12Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
66.4%
Anthony Wales run for 5 yds to the Vandy 7Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 1
OPP 7
-1
64.8%
Anthony Wales run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 8Similar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
62.4%
Ryan Nuss 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:2044% → 44%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+45
56.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 45 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
50.5%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-1
49.9%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
52.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
55.7%
Sam Loy punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:3260% → 88%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
59.9%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 19 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
62.1%
Anthony Wales run for 3 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+10
63.7%
Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 10 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
64.9%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 14 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
66.2%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Taywan Taylor) to the Vandy 39Similar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+9
63.3%
Mike White pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 9 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
66.3%
Mike White pass incomplete, broken up by Oren BurksSimilar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+10
64.6%
WHITE, Mike pass incomplete to FANT, Nacarius, PENALTY VANDY holding (Tre Herndon) 10 yards to the VANDY20, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
66.3%
Mike White pass incomplete to Nacarius Fant, broken up by Landon StokesSimilar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
87.5%
Anthony Wales run for 20 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
81.4%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-1
81.5%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 21Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+4
82.8%
Kyle Shurmur run for 4 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
83.2%
Sam Loy punt for 55 yds, downed at the WKent 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.0%
Mike White pass incomplete to Taywan TaylorSimilar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
85.8%
Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for no gain to the WKent 20Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
84.9%
Anthony Wales run for 9 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
84.8%
Jake Collins punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ryan White at the Vandy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21FG
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:3218% → 34%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+66
82.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 66 yds to the WKent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
76.1%
Ralph Webb rush for no gain to the WKU10 (JOHNSON, L.;MCCOLLUM, T.J.), PENALTY VANDY holding (Jared Pinkney) 10 yards to the WKU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+6
76.9%
Kyle Shurmur run for 6 yds to the WKent 14Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
78.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q4 8:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+10
80.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 10 yds to the WKent 4Similar
Q4 5:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
65.6%
Tommy Openshaw 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 4:2780% → 96%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.0%
Anthony Wales run for 11 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
81.3%
Anthony Wales run for 29 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
84.5%
Anthony Wales run for 15 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
84.5%
Anthony Wales run for 5 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+3
84.5%
Anthony Wales run for 3 yds to the Vandy 12Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+2
83.0%
Anthony Wales run for 2 yds to the Vandy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
91.2%
Anthony Wales run for 1 yd to the Vandy 9Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
92.5%
Anthony Wales run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 10Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
91.7%
Taywan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Vandy 8Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
96.1%
Ryan Nuss 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:028% → 63%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+22
92.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 22 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
90.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 12 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
89.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 24 yds to the WKent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
84.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
84.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+13
89.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield, PENALTY WKU pass interference (SIMMONS, D.) 13 yards to the WKU2, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
37.0%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 77%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
40.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 14 yds to the WKent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
40.5%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the WKent 4Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+3
40.5%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the WKent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
40.6%
Kyle Shurmur run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 3 Kyle Shurmur fumbled, recovered by Vandy Kyle ShurmurSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
40.5%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 5Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
22.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 5 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 41%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
28.1%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 17 yds to the Vandy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
41.2%
Mike White pass complete to Shaquille Johnson for 8 yds for a TD, (Mike White intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
-42.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-41.2
TD · Q4 11:33
Anthony Wales run for 20 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)
+21.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com