2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:33 · Cole Maynard punt for 48 yds , Tru Edwards returns for 24 yds to the WKU 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 2:25: Buck Buchanan 28 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +4.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- FG · Q4 8:06: Buck Buchanan 24 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +10.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:47: Caden Veltkamp run for 25 yds to the LT 45 for a 1ST down — WKU win probability +11.8 pts (now 24%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:17: Timeout Western Kentucky, clock 01:17 — LT win probability +9.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- SACK · Q4 1:15: Caden Veltkamp sacked by David Blay for a loss of 5 yards to the LT 35 — WKU win probability +9.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 13:35WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snapGo for it78.7%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.7%average punt
- Q1 9:30LT 4th & 2 at WKU 17, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snapGo for it22.5%56% to convertField goalTheir call22.5%−0.180% to makePunt21.9%−0.6average punt
- Q1 8:24WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snapGo for it76.5%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.6%average punt
- Q1 4:47LT 4th & 10 at WKU 39, up 3Close callPunted · 24.3% before the snapGo for it24.3%30% to convertField goal24.2%−0.136% to makePuntTheir call24.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 8:16LT 4th & 11 at WKU 25, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snapGo for it24.8%−0.525% to convertField goalTheir call25.2%66% to makePunt22.3%−3.0average punt
- Q2 6:38WKU 4th & 15 at WKU 20, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snapGo for it71.7%−1.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.0%average punt
- Q2 2:25LT 4th & 11 at WKU 11, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snapGo for it26.3%−1.022% to convertField goalTheir call27.2%87% to makePunt22.7%−4.6average punt
- Q2 1:08WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 33, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snapGo for it65.0%−0.257% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.3%average punt
- Q2 1:08WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 33, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snapGo for it65.0%−0.257% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.3%average punt
- Q3 9:08LT 4th & 23 at LT 34, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snapGo for it32.1%−7.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.3%average punt
- Q3 5:23WKU 4th & 3 at LT 36, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call63.2%53% to convertField goal59.9%−3.342% to makePunt59.1%−4.1average punt
- Q3 2:06WKU 4th & 1 at LT 5, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call60.0%67% to convertField goal53.9%−6.192% to makePunt38.3%−21.8average punt
- Q3 0:04LT 4th & 4 at LT 13, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snapGo for it45.0%−1.247% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.2%average punt
- Q4 8:06LT 4th & 4 at WKU 7, up 2Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.8% before the snapGo for it55.3%41% to convertField goalTheir call53.4%−1.991% to makePunt30.7%−24.7average punt
- Q4 6:33WKU 4th & 12 at WKU 23, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snapGo for it24.0%−3.922% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.9%average punt
- Q4 1:55LT 4th & 16 at WKU 30, up 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snapGo for it83.7%−3.116% to convertField goalTheir call86.8%56% to makePunt83.4%−3.4average punt
- Q4 1:05WKU 4th & 15 at LT 35, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.6%17% to convertField goal14.7%−1.045% to makePunt12.1%−3.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 14:16WKU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.4%97% to makeGo for two76.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWKUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2280% → 79%
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
79.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 7 yds to the WKU 32Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
79.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Elijah Young for 3 yds to the WKU 29Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
79.0%
Cole Maynard punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim at the LT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2FG8 plays · 56 yds · 3:5121% → 22%
WKUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5878% → 77%
Q1 8:24
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
76.8%
Cole Maynard punt for 46 yds , Tru Edwards returns for 5 yds to the LT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 31 yds · 3:2223% → 24%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
76.1%
Evan Bullock sacked by Deante McCray for a loss of 3 yards to the WKU 42Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+2
76.0%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Amani Givens for 2 yds to the WKU 44Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 15
OPP 44
+5
76.1%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jay Wilkerson for 5 yds to the WKU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5TD15 plays · 97 yds · 5:2075% → 78%
Q1 2:43
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+12
74.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Bryce Childress for 12 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-9
74.6%
Caden Veltkamp sacked by J'Dan Burnett for a loss of 9 yards to the WKU 21Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-10
75.0%
Western Kentucky Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WKU 41Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+8
74.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 8 yds to the WKU 49Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+16
74.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Noah Meyers for 16 yds to the LT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
75.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Elvin Fofanah for 1 yd to the LT 34Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+19
75.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 19 yds to the LT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
75.2%
(14:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden pass incomplete short right to Meyers,Noah thrown to LA Tec15 QB hurried by Mason,Mekhi PENALTY LA Tec Roughing The Passer (Mason,Mekhi) 8 yards from LA Tec15 to LA Tec07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6FG14 plays · 56 yds · 5:4324% → 26%
Q2 13:11
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+14
76.4%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 14 yds to the LT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+4
75.4%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for 4 yds to the LT 41Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+15
75.9%
(11:18) Rea,Patrick punt 35 yards to the WKU24 fair catch by Hutchinson,K.D. at WKU24 PENALTY WKU Roughing The Kicker (Patterson,Marcus) 15 yards from LA Tec41 to WKU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · -5 yds · 1:2975% → 73%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
74.9%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden rush left for 9 yards gain to the WKU34 (Evans,Jessie) PENALTY WKU Holding (Wibberley,Evan) 10 yards from WKU25 to WKU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-2
74.4%
Caden Veltkamp sacked by Jessie Evans for a loss of 2 yards to the WKU 20Similar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
73.0%
Cole Maynard punt for 40 yds , Tru Edwards returns for no gain to the LT 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8FG9 plays · 49 yds · 4:0228% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 1:1367% → 64%
Q2 1:48
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
66.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Elijah Young for 11 yds to the WKU 34Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+33
63.5%
Cole Maynard punt for 48 yds , Tru Edwards returns for 33 yds to the WKU 48Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+33
63.5%
Cole Maynard punt for 48 yds , Tru Edwards returns for 33 yds to the LT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · 7 yds · 1:0134% → 35%
LTDrive 11PUNT12 plays · 11 yds · 5:3836% → 36%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
60.1%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 4 yds to the WKU 49Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-9
59.0%
Evan Bullock sacked by Sebastian Benjamin for a loss of 9 yards to the LT 42 Evan Bullock fumbled, recovered by LT , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 15
OWN 42
-5
62.3%
PENALTY LA Tec False Start (Keys,Daniel) 5 yards from LA Tec42 to LA Tec37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:24
4TH & 18
OWN 39
-5
63.6%
PENALTY LA Tec False Start (Fields,Jacob) 5 yards from LA Tec39 to LA Tec34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 23
OWN 34
0
63.8%
Patrick Rea punt for 36 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12DOWNS15 plays · 63 yds · 6:5063% → 60%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
62.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Bryce Childress for 17 yds to the WKU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+5
65.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 5 yds to the LT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+5
64.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 5 yds to the LT 36Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+7
62.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Michael Mathison for 7 yds to the LT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+11
65.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Elijah Young for 11 yds to the LT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+5
62.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 5 yds to the LT 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5445% → 46%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14FG13 plays · 51 yds · 6:5453% → 71%
WKUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2938% → 27%
Q4 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
32.9%
Caden Veltkamp run for 8 yds to the WKU 17 Caden Veltkamp fumbled, recovered by WKU Jaymar MundySimilar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+6
30.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 6 yds to the WKU 23Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+24
27.3%
Cole Maynard punt for 48 yds , Tru Edwards returns for 24 yds to the WKU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16MISSED FG8 plays · 17 yds · 4:3078% → 88%
Q4 2:29
2ND & 9
OPP 23
-1
10.4%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for a loss of 1 yard to the WKU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17DOWNS7 plays · 49 yds · 0:4224% → 16%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
27.2%
(01:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden pass incomplete short left to Herard,Dave thrown to LA Tec34 PENALTY LA Tec Pass Interference (Woods,Cedric) 15 yards from LA Tec45 to LA Tec30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-5
29.4%
Caden Veltkamp sacked by David Blay for a loss of 5 yards to the LT 35Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 15
OPP 35
+14
16.0%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 14 yds to the LT 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:47
Caden Veltkamp run for 25 yds to the LT 45 for a 1ST down
+11.8
FG · Q4 8:06
Buck Buchanan 24 yd FG GOOD
-10.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:17
Timeout Western Kentucky, clock 01:17
-9.4