Western Kentucky

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.3598th
  Defense+0.2416th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense51.5%96th
  Defense49.0%6th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2571st
  Defense+1.2917th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1670th
  Defense+0.1239th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.5198th
  Defense+0.397th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense55.2%95th
  Defense52.4%10th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense42.1%99th
  Defense40.3%5th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2687th
  Defense2.8846th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.5%61st
  Defense19.8%50th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.4%25th
  Defense2.2%63rd

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Western Kentucky allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   BGSU
2. L
   ILL
3. L
   MTSU
4. W
   NAVY
5. L
   UAB
6. L
   FAU
7. W
   ODU
8. L
   LT
9. W
   UTEP
10. W
    ARMY
11. W
    UTSA
12. W
    MRSH
13. W
    CMU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Western Kentucky.

Players, 2014

1. Brandon DoughtyQB507 plays · +0.378 pts/play · 1st of 199 QBs
   3.59WAR2.80 to 4.40
2. Leon AllenRB288 plays · +0.135 pts/play · 6th of 350 RBs
   0.73WAR0.55 to 0.93
3. Taywan TaylorWR51 plays · +0.270 pts/play · 42nd of 469 WRs
   0.26WAR0.16 to 0.35
4. Willie McNealWR65 plays · +0.138 pts/play · 101st of 469 WRs
   0.17WAR0.07 to 0.27
5. Anthony WalesRB69 plays · +0.127 pts/play · 142nd of 350 RBs
   0.16WAR0.11 to 0.22
6. Garrett SchwettmanPK15 plays · +0.436 pts/play · 40th of 114 kickers
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.16
7. Nicholas NorrisWR28 plays · +0.179 pts/play · 220th of 469 WRs
   0.09WAR0.05 to 0.15
8. Antwane GrantWR55 plays · +0.091 pts/play · 220th of 469 WRs
   0.09WAR0.03 to 0.18

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Western Kentucky's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Western Kentucky's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.12 of the 0.17 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at NAVYQ4 4:31 4th & 2 at WKU 46, up 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.2 pts
2. at ILLQ3 2:00 4th & 2 at ILL 2, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.4 pts
3. vs UTSAQ2 7:26 4th & 1 at WKU 30, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
4. at MRSHQ4 12:55 4th & 4 at MRSH 4, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
5. at MTSUQ4 14:13 4th & 3 at MTSU 20, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
6. vs BGSUQ3 8:54 4th & 1 at WKU 28, up 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. at MTSUQ1 2:23 4th & 3 at MTSU 3, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. vs UTEPQ2 10:40 4th & 3 at WKU 10, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

34th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Western Kentucky's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   BGSU
2. L

   ILL
3. L

   MTSU
4. W

   NAVY
5. L

   UAB
6. L

   FAU
7. W

   ODU
8. L

   LT
9. W

   UTEP
10. W

    ARMY
11. W

    UTSA
12. W

    MRSH
13. W

    CMU

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Western Kentucky's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.24
• Possession & field position+0.07
• Clock−0.13
• Timeouts+0.41

Game by game

• BGSUW 59-31 vs BGSU35% → 100%Before kickoff −15 · On the field +65: Scoreboard +56, Clock +1
• ILLL 34-42 at ILL50% → 3%Before kickoff 0 · On the field −48: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts −2
• MTSUL 47-50 at MTSU48% → 15%Before kickoff −2 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −38, Timeouts +23
• NAVYW 36-27 at NAVY35% → 96%Before kickoff −15 · On the field +61: Scoreboard +54, Clock +4
• UABL 39-42 vs UAB85% → 97%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +19, Timeouts +1
• FAUL 38-45 at FAU61% → 4%Before kickoff +11 · On the field −57: Scoreboard −42, Timeouts −3
• ODUW 66-51 vs ODU78% → 98%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +25, Timeouts +1
• LTL 10-59 at LT44% → 0%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −42
• UTEPW 35-27 vs UTEP75% → 95%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +24, Possession & field position +2
• ARMYW 52-24 vs ARMY77% → 100%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +25
• UTSAW 45-7 vs UTSA70% → 100%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +32
• MRSHW 67-66 at MRSH7% → 91%Before kickoff −43 · On the field +84: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts +16
• CMUW 49-48 vs CMU55% → 79%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +14, Possession & field position +3

Points of win probability, from Western Kentucky's side.

Closest call

WKU 38-35 ODU (2023) - Western Kentucky dropped to a 2.4% win probability before pulling it out.