Western Kentucky

Profile vs. FBS, 2016

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.3799th
  Defense+0.1246th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense53.3%99th
  Defense40.5%76th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3087th
  Defense+1.366th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.3098th
  Defense−0.0283rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4898th
  Defense+0.2228th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense56.4%98th
  Defense45.5%70th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense45.5%99th
  Defense32.2%65th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3191st
  Defense2.3993rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.6%66th
  Defense25.6%96th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.7%70th
  Defense20.0%91st

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2016

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Western Kentucky allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   RICE
2. L
   ALA
3. W
   M-OH
4. L
   VAN
5. W
   HCU
6. L
   LT
7. W
   MTSU
8. W
   ODU
9. W
   FAU
10. W
    FIU
11. W
    UNT
12. W
    MRSH
13. W
    LT
14. W
    MEM

Bars above the line: better than expected for Western Kentucky.

Players, 2016

1. Mike WhiteQB288 plays · +0.271 pts/play · 49th of 218 QBs
   1.46WAR0.95 to 1.98
2. Anthony WalesRB167 plays · +0.225 pts/play · 20th of 347 RBs
   0.70WAR0.54 to 0.87
3. Taywan TaylorWR87 plays · +0.240 pts/play · 9th of 417 WRs
   0.39WAR0.26 to 0.52
4. Nicholas NorrisWR75 plays · +0.182 pts/play · 43rd of 417 WRs
   0.26WAR0.14 to 0.39
5. Shaquille JohnsonTE9 plays · +0.048 pts/play · 81st of 195 TEs
   0.01WAR−0.01 to 0.02
6. Stevie DonatellTE8 plays · +0.034 pts/play · 104th of 195 TEs
   0.01WAR−0.01 to 0.02
7. D'Andre FerbyRB1 plays · +0.114 pts/play · 296th of 347 RBs
   0.00WAR0.00 to 0.00
8. Quinton BakerRB8 plays · −0.007 pts/play · 296th of 347 RBs
   0.00WAR−0.01 to 0.01

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Western Kentucky's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2016

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  40240295th of 128Roster talent: 402, 95th of 128 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  12012096th of 128Recruiting: 120, 96th of 128 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  39%39%108th of 128Returning production: 39%, 108th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +15.5+15.519th of 128SP+ rating: +15.5, 19th of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 128 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2016

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Western Kentucky's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.20 of the 0.24 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at MTSUQ4 0:05 4th & 1 at MTSU 1, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−12.2 pts
2. vs VANQ4 9:35 4th & 1 at WKU 29, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.6 pts
3. vs VANQ3 1:20 4th & 2 at VAN 8, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
4. at LTQ2 6:34 4th & 2 at LT 9, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
5. at LTQ2 4:48 4th & 20 at LT 33, down 4Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.9 pts
6. at FAUQ3 13:36 4th & 1 at WKU 35, up 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. vs LTQ3 5:45 4th & 4 at LT 11, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. vs VANQ2 1:25 4th & 2 at WKU 43, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2016

28th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Western Kentucky's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   RICE
2. L

   ALA
3. W

   M-OH
4. L

   VAN
5. W

   HCU
6. L

   LT
7. W

   MTSU
8. W

   ODU
9. W

   FAU
10. W

    FIU
11. W

    UNT
12. W

    MRSH
13. W

    LT
14. W

    MEM

What moved it, 2016

Every game starts at Western Kentucky's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.92
• Possession & field position+0.08
• Clock+0.04
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.55

Game by game

• RICEW 46-14 vs RICE84% → 100%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +19
• ALAL 10-38 at ALA6% → 0%Before kickoff −44 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −8
• M-OHW 31-24 at M-OH81% → 96%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +29, Clock +2
• VANL 30-31 vs VAN68% → 41%Before kickoff +18 · On the field −26: Scoreboard −21, Timeouts −20
• HCUW 50-3 vs HCU73% → 100%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +28
• LTL 52-55 at LT49% → 5%Before kickoff −1 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −36, Timeouts −2
• MTSUW 44-43 at MTSU38% → 90%Before kickoff −12 · On the field +52: Scoreboard +44, Timeouts +18
• ODUW 59-24 vs ODU77% → 100%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +26
• FAUW 52-3 at FAU88% → 100%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +17
• FIUW 49-21 vs FIU93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +10
• UNTW 45-7 vs UNT97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• MRSHW 60-6 at MRSH89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +16, Clock +1
• LTW 58-44 vs LT72% → 99%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +2
• MEMW 51-31 vs MEM67% → 100%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts +1

Points of win probability, from Western Kentucky's side.

Closest call

WKU 38-35 ODU (2023) - Western Kentucky dropped to a 2.4% win probability before pulling it out.