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MEM

Memphis 31 at Western Kentucky 51

WKU
2016 · Boca Raton Bowl · Dec 20, 2016 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:02 · Skyler Simcox 43 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Home team on offense+19.7Pregame prior+6.7Score differential+9.7Garbage-time factor+9.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:59: Mike White pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 37 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK) — WKU win probability +6.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:00: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +8.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:16: Anthony Wales run for 2 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK) — WKU win probability +9.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:24: Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 41 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK) — WKU win probability +9.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:34: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +6.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:51MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:36WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:38MEM 4th & 5 at WKU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00MEM 4th & 10 at WKU 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:12MEM 4th & 10 at WKU 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:45MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:04MEM 4th & 2 at WKU 49, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.0%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:02WKU 4th & 16 at MEM 26, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−1.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:34WKU 4th & 4 at MEM 4, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.8%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−5.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:51WKU 4th & 20 at MEM 40, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:25MEM 4th & 3 at WKU 29, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:24WKU 4th & 14 at WKU 25, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:47MEM 4th & 12 at WKU 45, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    1.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:23MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 41, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:34MEM 4th & 16 at WKU 24, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:43MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:42WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:47WKU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:59WKU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:00MEM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:16WKU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:24WKU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:31WKU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:34MEM Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:47MEM Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:18WKU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4933% → 33%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
66.9%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 21Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-1
66.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 20Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+11
66.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 11 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 13:51
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
66.8%
Spencer Smith punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kylen Towner at the WKent 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5467% → 67%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
66.8%
Anthony Wales run for 2 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+1
66.7%
Nicholas Norris run for 1 yd to the WKent 31Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
66.7%
Mike White pass incomplete to Nicholas NorrisSimilar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
66.5%
Jake Collins punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:3234% → 36%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
66.5%
Riley Ferguson run for 6 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-1
66.3%
Riley Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 40Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+10
66.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
66.0%
Darrell Henderson run for 5 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+45
64.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 45 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4865% → 67%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
64.9%
Mike White pass complete to Nicholas Norris for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 20Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+33
64.6%
Mike White pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 33 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
65.0%
Mike White pass complete to Anthony Wales for 23 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
65.0%
Anthony Wales run for 5 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+10
64.9%
Anthony Wales run for 10 yds to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
64.7%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 5 yds to the Memph 4Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
64.7%
Mike White pass incomplete to Taywan TaylorSimilar
Q1 7:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
66.7%
Mike White pass complete to Stevie Donatell for 4 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 1:5234% → 35%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to John Williams for 5 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
65.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
65.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 12 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
65.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 24 yds to the WKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
64.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 13 yds to the WKent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
64.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Daniel HurdSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+2
64.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the WKent 19Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+3
64.8%
Riley Ferguson run for 3 yds to the WKent 16Similar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
64.8%
Jake Elliott 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:2864% → 68%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
64.4%
Anthony Wales run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 21Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+18
64.2%
Mike White pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 18 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
64.6%
Anthony Wales run for 1 yd to the WKent 40Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-5
64.6%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 35Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+38
63.9%
Mike White pass complete to Anthony Wales for 38 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
65.7%
Mike White sacked by Emmanuel Cooper for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+19
64.7%
Anthony Wales run for 6 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (13 Yards) to the Memph 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
65.5%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 3 yds to the Memph 9Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
68.2%
Forrest Lamp run for 9 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7MISSED FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 2:0833% → 34%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
66.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 6 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
66.2%
Ferguson, Riley pass incomplete to Pollard, Tony, PENALTY WESTERNKY personal foul 15 yards to the MEMPHIS45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
65.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+8
65.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 8 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
65.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
65.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Darrell HendersonSimilar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
65.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+14
66.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 14 yds to the WKent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
64.6%
Darrell Henderson run for no gain to the WKent 26Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
64.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
65.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
66.4%
Jake Elliott 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:0867% → 75%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
66.8%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-3
66.6%
Anthony Wales run for 7 yds to the WKent 33 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WKent 23Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+27
66.5%
Anthony Wales run for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
50
+8
68.1%
Mike White pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 8 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+5
68.2%
Quinton Baker run for 5 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
74.7%
Mike White pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 37 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4027% → 37%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.7%
Tony Pollard run for 4 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+23
72.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 23 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
71.8%
Riley Ferguson run for 5 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+1
71.6%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd to the WKent 42Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+24
72.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 24 yds to the WKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
71.4%
Riley Ferguson run for 5 yds to the WKent 13Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+6
71.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the WKent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
63.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10TD
15 plays · 71 yds · 6:1467% → 81%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
66.9%
Mike White sacked by Arthur Maulet for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 26Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 13
OWN 26
0
67.3%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+17
66.4%
Mike White run for 17 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
68.9%
Anthony Wales run for 9 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+2
69.6%
Anthony Wales run for 2 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
70.6%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 1 yd to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+12
70.4%
Anthony Wales run for 12 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
71.3%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 6 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
71.4%
Kylen Towner run for 3 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+5
70.6%
Anthony Wales run for 5 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
71.5%
Mike White pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 13 yds to the Memph 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
71.9%
Anthony Wales run for 4 yds to the Memph 2Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.1%
Anthony Wales run for 2 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:1020% → 20%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+22
79.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 22 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
78.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-2
79.1%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+6
80.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 6 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
80.2%
Nick Jacobs punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kylen Towner at the WKent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12INT
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:1181% → 82%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+53
80.8%
Anthony Wales run for 53 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
82.4%
Mike White pass intercepted, touchback. Dontrell Nelson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
80.0%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Derik Overstreet for a loss of 9 yards to the Memph 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2180% → 90%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.5%
Anthony Wales run for no gain to the WKent 25Similar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
79.4%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 20Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+32
79.4%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 32 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
81.1%
Anthony Wales run for 7 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+41
90.2%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 41 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:1513% → 13%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.2%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
87.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 18 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
86.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
86.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+7
87.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 7 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
87.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Daniel HurdSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16MISSED FG
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:3892% → 92%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
91.7%
Anthony Wales run for 3 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
91.8%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+17
91.6%
Anthony Wales run for 17 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
92.2%
Mike White pass complete to Anthony Wales for 5 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+6
92.6%
Anthony Wales run for 6 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
92.6%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-6
92.9%
Anthony Wales run for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 26Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 16
OPP 26
0
92.8%
Mike White pass incomplete to Lucky JacksonSimilar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 16
OPP 26
+43
92.0%
Skyler Simcox 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:4993% → 96%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
93.3%
Anthony Wales run for no gain to the Memph 21Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+18
93.4%
Mike White pass complete to Anthony Wales for 18 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.1%
Anthony Wales run for 3 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:364% → 11%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 7 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
95.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 13 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
95.8%
Ferguson, Riley pass incomplete to Miller, Anthony, PENALTY WESTERNKY pass interference 15 yards to the WESTERNKY40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
95.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 11 yds to the WKent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
95.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to John Williams for 18 yds to the WKent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
95.5%
Tony Pollard run for 1 yd to the WKent 10Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
89.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19FG
7 plays · 71 yds · 1:3693% → 96%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
92.5%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 38 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+32
93.3%
Anthony Wales run for 32 yds to the Memph 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
93.5%
Anthony Wales run for 1 yd to the Memph 4Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
93.6%
Mike White pass incomplete to Taywan TaylorSimilar
Q3 3:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
93.5%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
96.3%
Skyler Simcox 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20INT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:204% → 3%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
96.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
96.7%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Memph 25Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+15
96.8%
Riley Ferguson run for no gain to the Memph 25 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
96.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
97.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line MEMPHIS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+8
97.2%
Riley Ferguson pass intercepted Keith Brown return for 8 yds to the Memph 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:3997% → 98%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
96.8%
Mike White sacked by Arthur Maulet for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 12
OPP 32
0
97.8%
Anthony Wales run for no gain to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 32
-3
98.0%
Mike White sacked by Christian Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 35Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 35
-5
97.6%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 20
OPP 40
0
97.7%
Jake Collins punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:222% → 2%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.8%
Jason Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
97.9%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 19Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+28
98.4%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Anthony Miller for 28 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
98.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
98.3%
Jason Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+15
98.4%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
98.4%
Darrell Henderson run for 9 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 1
OPP 27
-2
98.2%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 29Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
98.3%
Jason Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 3
OPP 29
0
98.4%
Jason Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3699% → 99%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
98.6%
Anthony Wales run for no gain to the WKent 29Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
98.6%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 3 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-7
98.7%
Mike White sacked by Arthur Maulet for a loss of 7 yards to the WKent 25Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 14
OWN 25
+2
98.5%
Jake Collins punt for 49 yds , Anthony Miller returns for 2 yds to the Memph 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:131% → 5%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
98.7%
Riley Ferguson run for 11 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
98.7%
Phil Mayhue pass complete to Anthony Miller for 18 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
98.7%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Nick Dawson-Brents for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 45Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
98.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil MayhueSimilar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
98.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q4 8:47
4TH & 12
OPP 45
+45
95.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 45 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:1795% → 100%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
95.4%
Anthony Wales run for 11 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
95.8%
Anthony Wales run for 7 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+15
96.2%
Anthony Wales run for no gain to the Memph 43 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
96.6%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 15 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
96.8%
Anthony Wales run for 8 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+4
97.0%
Quinton Baker run for 4 yds to the Memph 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
97.3%
Mike White sacked by Tye Northern for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 17 Mike White fumbled, recovered by WKentSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+8
97.3%
Anthony Wales run for 8 yds to the Memph 9Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-1
97.9%
Anthony Wales run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 10Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+5
98.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the Memph 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
98.5%
Anthony Wales run for 4 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Anthony Wales run for 1 yd for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26FUMBLE
11 plays · 35 yds · 1:331% → 0%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
99.5%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Derik Overstreet for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 28Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+10
99.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 10 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+3
99.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 3 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+8
99.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 8 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+33
99.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 33 yds to the WKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Patrick Taylor Jr.Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-6
99.8%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Nick Dawson-Brents for a loss of 6 yards to the WKent 24Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 16
OPP 24
0
99.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 16
OPP 24
-5
99.8%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Nick Dawson-Brents for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 29 Riley Ferguson fumbled, recovered by WKent Nick True , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:16
Anthony Wales run for 2 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q3 13:24
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 41 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q2 9:00
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com