2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:17 · Jake Collins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Thomas Owens at the FlaIn 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:10: Anthony Wales run for 1 yd for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK) — WKU win probability +1.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:07: Maurice Alexander run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +3.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:50: Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 41 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK) — WKU win probability +2.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:33: Maurice Alexander pass intercepted for a TD Leverick Johnson return for 61 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK) — WKU win probability +3.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:38: Anthony Wales run for 5 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK) — WKU win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4FIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 15:00FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snapGo for it6.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q1 9:51FIU 4th & 15 at midfield, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%average punt
- Q1 3:10FIU 4th & 8 at WKU 36, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.7%34% to convertField goal6.6%−<0.142% to makePunt6.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:50FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it6.9%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.0%average punt
- Q2 13:26WKU 4th & 5 at WKU 37, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snapGo for it93.2%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.3%average punt
- Q2 11:33FIU 4th & 2 at midfield, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.3%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.0%−0.3average punt
- Q3 14:41FIU 4th & 7 at FIU 31, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q3 10:36FIU 4th & 15 at FIU 14, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 7:59WKU 4th & 10 at FIU 35, up 42Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%−<0.130% to convertField goal99.7%45% to makePunt99.6%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:57FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 40, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 5:17WKU 4th & 13 at WKU 36, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 15:00FIU 4th & 9 at WKU 33, down 42Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.132% to convertField goal0.2%49% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:22WKU 4th & 7 at FIU 26, up 28Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.136% to convertField goal99.9%64% to makePunt99.5%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 9:51WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.1%97% to makeGo for two93.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:10WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.6%97% to makeGo for two93.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:07FIU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.6%97% to makeGo for two8.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:50WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.0%97% to makeGo for two93.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:33WKU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:38WKU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:41WKU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:36WKU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:29FIU Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:22FIU Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFIUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:007% → 7%
WKUDrive 2TD10 plays · 76 yds · 3:0093% → 93%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
92.6%
Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 8 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+9
92.6%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 9 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+9
92.6%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 9 yds to the FlaIn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+15
92.6%
Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 15 yds to the FlaIn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3PUNT11 plays · 23 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
92.3%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Thomas Owens for 5 yds to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+7
92.3%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Stantley Thomas for 7 yds to the FlaIn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+13
92.3%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Thomas Owens for 13 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 12
OPP 47
-3
92.2%
Maurice Alexander sacked by Nick Dawson-Brents and Julien Lewis for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 15
50
0
92.3%
Maurice Alexander pass incomplete to Darrius Scott, broken up by Nick Dawson-BrentsSimilar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 15
50
0
92.4%
Stone Wilson punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Nacarius Fant at the WKent 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4TD6 plays · 76 yds · 2:3092% → 93%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
91.7%
Mike White pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 21 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
92.0%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 8 yds to the FlaIn 47Similar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+33
92.0%
Mike White pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 33 yds to the FlaIn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:037% → 10%
WKUDrive 6TD3 plays · 55 yds · 0:1791% → 93%
FIUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:008% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9INT TD2 plays · 9 yds · 0:598% → 5%
FIUDrive 10DOWNS8 plays · 24 yds · 0:005% → 5%
WKUDrive 11FUMBLE2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
FIUDrive 12INT9 plays · 65 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
95.5%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Anthony Jones for 6 yds to the FlaIn 36Similar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
95.5%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal participation (5 Yards) to the FlaIn 47Similar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+21
95.3%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Darrius Scott for 21 yds to the WKent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
95.0%
Maurice Alexander pass intercepted, touchback. Derik Overstreet return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13TD11 plays · 80 yds · 3:0497% → 99%
Q2 3:42
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
96.9%
Mike White pass incomplete to Taywan Taylor, broken up by Deonte WilsonSimilar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+12
96.8%
Mike White pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 12 yds to the WKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+11
96.9%
Mike White pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 11 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
97.0%
Mike White pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 12 yds to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
97.0%
Mike White pass complete to Anthony Wales for 23 yds to the FlaIn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15TD2 plays · 59 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
99.3%
ALEXANDER, M. pass complete to SCOTT, Darrius for 60 yards to the WKU12, out-of-bounds (IYIEGBUNIWE, J.), PENALTY FIU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the FIU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:41
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+4
99.3%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Stantley Thomas for 4 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q3 14:41
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
99.3%
Stone Wilson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kylen Towner at the WKent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17TD5 plays · 68 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
99.5%
Mike White pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 16 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+30
99.5%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 30 yds to the FlaIn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+12
99.5%
Mike White pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 12 yds to the FlaIn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-7
99.6%
Maurice Alexander sacked by Keith Brown and Nick Dawson-Brents for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaIn 12Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 17
OWN 12
-1
99.7%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Alex Gardner for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 11Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 18
OWN 11
+3
99.7%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Darrius Scott for 3 yds to the FlaIn 14Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 15
OWN 14
+22
99.7%
Stone Wilson punt for 43 yds , Kylen Towner returns for 22 yds to the FlaIn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19DOWNS4 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21PUNT11 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+4
99.8%
Tyler Ferguson pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 4 yds to the WKent 23Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Tyler Ferguson pass incomplete to Quin Jernighan, broken up by Andrew BrownSimilar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Jake Collins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Thomas Owens at the FlaIn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 22TD12 plays · 81 yds · 6:000% → 0%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Austin Maloney for no gain to the FlaIn 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+14
99.9%
Christian Alexander pass complete to A.J. Branisel for 14 yds to the FlaIn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+14
99.9%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Shug Oyegunle for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+16
99.9%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Austin Maloney for 16 yds to the WKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+14
99.8%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Stantley Thomas for 14 yds to the WKent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Shug Oyegunle for 11 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23FUMBLE2 plays · -12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 15
OWN 19
-5
99.9%
Quinton Baker run for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 12 Quinton Baker fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Tyree JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 24TD2 plays · 12 yds · 0:500% → 0%
WKUDrive 25DOWNS12 plays · 43 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
FIUDrive 26FUMBLE2 plays · -13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 15
OWN 21
-7
100.0%
Christian Alexander sacked by Masai Whyte for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaIn 13 Christian Alexander fumbled, recovered by WKent Ben Holt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 27END OF GAME4 plays · 10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:33
Maurice Alexander pass intercepted for a TD Leverick Johnson return for 61 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q1 0:07
Maurice Alexander run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)
-3
TD · Q2 0:38
Anthony Wales run for 5 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)
+2.3