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HCU

Houston Christian 3 at Western Kentucky 50

WKU
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadHCU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreHCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:20 · Joseph Occhipinti punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brandon Taylor at the HstnB 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Home team on offense+34.2Score differential+30.0Pregame prior+3.3Blowout margin+16.6Garbage-time factor+13.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:33: Mike White pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 34 yds for a TD, (Ryan Nuss KICK) — WKU win probability +3.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:19: Mike White pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 19 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK) — WKU win probability +7.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 5:59: Skyler Simcox 50 yd FG GOOD — WKU win probability +5.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:25: Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 80 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — WKU win probability +3.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:34: Nicholas Norris run for 85 yds for a TD, (Ryan Nuss PAT MISSED) — WKU win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4HCU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 7:56HCU 4th & 3 at WKU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    46.2%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:34HCU 4th & 8 at WKU 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−5.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:19HCU 4th & 9 at HCU 20, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:59WKU 4th & 22 at HCU 32, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−2.7
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:46HCU 4th & 8 at HCU 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00HCU 4th & 16 at WKU 46, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−1.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:23HCU 4th & 12 at HCU 10, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:23HCU 4th & 14 at HCU 10, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:31HCU 4th & 4 at HCU 21, down 47
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:45WKU 4th & 8 at WKU 40, up 47
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:26WKU 4th & 8 at HCU 23, up 47
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:27HCU 4th & 11 at WKU 24, down 47
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:20WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 32, up 47
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:21HCU 4th & 20 at HCU 37, down 47
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:31WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:33WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:19WKU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:25WKU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:34WKU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:31WKU Touchdown, up 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 1:2973% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
73.3%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 5 yds to the WKent 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+8
73.3%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 8 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
73.3%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 24 yds to the HstnB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
73.6%
Anthony Wales run for 45 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 2DOWNS
14 plays · 47 yds · 5:3527% → 26%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
73.4%
B.J. Kelly run for no gain to the HstnB 13Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
73.4%
B.J. Kelly run for 4 yds to the HstnB 17Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+15
73.5%
Tony Dawson pass complete to Ethan Fry for 15 yds to the HstnB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
73.4%
Mev Ajdin run for 2 yds to the HstnB 34Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+9
73.4%
Tony Dawson run for 9 yds to the HstnB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
73.3%
Tony Dawson pass complete to Ethan Fry for 8 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
73.3%
Tony Dawson pass incomplete to Ethan FrySimilar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
73.3%
B.J. Kelly run for 3 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
73.3%
Ethan Fry run for 2 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
73.3%
B.J. Kelly run for no gain to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+5
73.3%
Tony Dawson pass complete to David Racine for 5 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 3
OPP 39
-1
73.8%
Tony Dawson sacked by Joe Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:1875% → 78%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
74.7%
Anthony Wales run for 1 yd to the WKent 41Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+9
74.6%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
50
+16
74.8%
Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 16 yds to the HstnB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
78.2%
Mike White pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 34 yds for a TD, (Ryan Nuss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 4FG
16 plays · 76 yds · 5:5923% → 24%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
77.1%
Mev Ajdin run for 1 yd to the HstnB 17Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
77.2%
Tony Dawson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 9
OWN 17
-9
77.3%
Tony Dawson pass complete to B.J. Kelly for 6 yds to the HstnB 23 for a 1ST down HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, roughing passer (-15 Yards) to the HstnB 38 for a 1ST down for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
77.0%
Tony Dawson pass complete to David Racine for 10 yds to the HstnB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
76.8%
B.J. Kelly run for 3 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
76.7%
Tony Dawson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+9
76.9%
Tony Dawson pass complete to B.J. Kelly for 9 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
76.6%
B.J. Kelly run for no gain to the WKent 40Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
76.7%
Tony Dawson pass incomplete to Ethan FrySimilar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+15
76.9%
Tony Dawson run for 15 yds to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
76.2%
Tony Dawson pass complete to Ethan Fry for 15 yds to the WKent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
76.2%
B.J. Kelly run for no gain to the WKent 10Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
76.2%
B.J. Kelly run for 2 yds to the WKent 8Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
76.5%
Tony Dawson pass incomplete to Mev Ajdin, broken up by Ben HoltSimilar
Q1 0:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
76.2%
Alec Chadwick 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:1577% → 85%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
76.5%
Mike White pass incomplete to Taywan TaylorSimilar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+14
76.5%
Anthony Wales run for 14 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
77.4%
Mike White sacked by Andre Walker for a loss of 6 yards to the WKent 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+7
77.0%
Mike White pass complete to Anthony Wales for 7 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+13
76.8%
Mike White pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 13 yds to the HstnB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
77.5%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 10 yds to the HstnB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
77.6%
Anthony Wales run for no gain to the HstnB 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
77.5%
Anthony Wales run for 9 yds to the HstnB 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
77.3%
Anthony Wales run for 2 yds to the HstnB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
85.2%
Mike White pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 19 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
83.7%
Ethan Fry run for 3 yds to the HstnB 22Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
83.7%
Tony Dawson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-2
83.9%
Tony Dawson sacked by Chris Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the HstnB 20Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
84.0%
Christian Guzman punt for 53 yds, downed at the WKent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:4386% → 92%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
85.7%
Nacarius Fant run for 20 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
86.1%
Tyler Ferguson pass incomplete to Nacarius FantSimilar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
86.0%
Quinton Baker run for 4 yds to the HstnB 49Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+19
85.8%
Tyler Ferguson pass complete to Nacarius Fant for 19 yds to the HstnB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
86.2%
Tyler Ferguson pass incomplete to Nicholas NorrisSimilar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+10
86.1%
Tyler Ferguson pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 10 yds to the HstnB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
86.0%
Tyler Ferguson pass incomplete to Taywan TaylorSimilar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
86.2%
Quinton Baker run for 3 yds to the HstnB 17Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 7
OPP 17
-15
85.8%
Tyler Ferguson sacked by Cody Moncure for a loss of 15 yards to the HstnB 32Similar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 22
OPP 32
+50
91.5%
Skyler Simcox 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 30 yds · 4:1310% → 8%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
90.3%
Tony Dawson pass incomplete to Buddy TuamasagaSimilar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+1
90.4%
Craig Bell run for 1 yd to the HstnB 15Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+16
90.5%
Tony Dawson pass complete to Ricardo Barnett for 16 yds to the HstnB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
89.9%
Craig Bell run for 4 yds to the HstnB 35Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
89.9%
Tony Dawson pass incomplete to Ethan FrySimilar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+7
90.0%
Tony Dawson pass complete to Craig Bell for 7 yds to the HstnB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
89.8%
Craig Bell run for no gain to the HstnB 42Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
90.0%
Ethan Fry run for 1 yd to the HstnB 43Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+1
92.2%
Tony Dawson run for 1 yd to the HstnB 44Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
92.3%
Christian Guzman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Nacarius Fant at the WKent 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 90 yds · 1:1395% → 98%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
94.7%
Mike White pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-5
94.7%
Mike White sacked by La'Travien Gee for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 4 Mike White fumbled, recovered by WKent Max Halpin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 16
OWN 4
+16
94.5%
Anthony Wales run for 16 yds to the WKent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
98.2%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 80 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
98.6%
B.J. Kelly run for no gain to the HstnB 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 33 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
97.8%
B.J. Kelly run for 2 yds to the HstnB 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
97.8%
Tony Dawson pass incomplete to B.J. KellySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+16
97.8%
Tony Dawson pass complete to Ethan Fry for 16 yds to the HstnB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.7%
Tony Dawson pass incomplete to Ethan Fry, broken up by Joe BrownSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
97.7%
Tony Dawson run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
97.6%
B.J. Kelly run for 3 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+5
97.5%
B.J. Kelly run for 5 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+2
97.3%
B.J. Kelly run for 2 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
97.6%
B.J. Kelly run for 3 yds to the WKent 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-9
97.5%
Tony Dawson sacked by Derik Overstreet for a loss of 9 yards to the WKent 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 46
0
97.8%
Tony Dawson run for no gain to the WKent 46Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
97.8%
Christian Guzman punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12TD
1 play · 85 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
99.2%
Nicholas Norris run for 85 yds for a TD, (Ryan Nuss PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 13PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:111% → 1%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
99.2%
Mev Ajdin run for 3 yds to the HstnB 15Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
99.2%
Max Staver pass incomplete to Ricardo Barnett, broken up by Leverick JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
99.2%
Max Staver pass incomplete to Ricardo BarnettSimilar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 7
OWN 15
-5
99.2%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the HstnB 10Similar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 12
OWN 10
+50
99.4%
Christian Guzman punt for 40 yds , Nacarius Fant returns for 50 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
99.4%
Craig Bell run for 1 yd to the HstnB 15Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-9
99.4%
Max Staver sacked by Keith Brown and Ben Holt for a loss of 9 yards to the HstnB 6Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 18
OWN 6
-3
99.4%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (Sterling Savell) to the HstnB 3Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 21
OWN 3
+5
99.4%
Staver, Max pass incomplete to Fry, Ethan, PENALTY WKU offside defense (IYIEGBUNIWE, J.) 5 yards to the HBU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 16
OWN 8
+2
99.4%
Craig Bell run for 2 yds to the HstnB 10Similar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 14
OWN 10
+14
99.4%
Christian Guzman punt for 49 yds , Nacarius Fant returns for 14 yds to the HstnB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.6%
Marquez Trigg run for 8 yds to the HstnB 37Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+5
99.6%
Marquez Trigg run for 5 yds to the HstnB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.6%
Tyler Ferguson pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 3 yds to the HstnB 29Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+17
99.6%
Tyler Ferguson pass complete to Stevie Donatell for 17 yds to the HstnB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.7%
Marquez Trigg run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Nuss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
99.7%
Craig Bell run for 6 yds to the HstnB 21Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
99.7%
Craig Bell run for no gain to the HstnB 21Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
99.7%
Max Staver pass incomplete to Isaiah Hall, broken up by Juwan GardnerSimilar
Q3 4:31
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
99.7%
Christian Guzman punt for 41 yds, downed at the WKent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.7%
Quinton Baker run for 9 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
99.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the WKent 31 TEAM fumbled,Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+9
99.7%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Kylen Towner for 9 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+2
99.7%
Jake Collins punt for 35 yds , Brandon Taylor returns for 2 yds to the HstnB 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 18INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
99.8%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (Mev Ajdin) to the HstnB 22Similar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+2
99.8%
Craig Bell run for 2 yds to the HstnB 24Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 13
OWN 24
0
99.8%
Max Staver pass incomplete to Ricardo Barnett, broken up by Drew DavisSimilar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+5
99.8%
Max Staver pass intercepted Drew Davis return for 5 yds to the HstnB 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19MISSED FG
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
99.8%
Quinton Baker run for 10 yds to the HstnB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
99.8%
Quinton Baker run for 1 yd to the HstnB 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+1
99.8%
Quinton Baker run for 1 yd to the HstnB 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
99.8%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Lucky Jackson, broken up by Otis LanierSimilar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
99.8%
Ryan Nuss 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 20DOWNS
13 plays · 53 yds · 4:590% → 0%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Craig Bell run for 2 yds to the HstnB 25Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+16
99.9%
Max Staver pass complete to Ethan Fry for 16 yds to the HstnB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Craig Bell run for 3 yds to the HstnB 44Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+14
99.9%
Craig Bell run for 14 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Max Staver pass incomplete to David RacineSimilar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
99.9%
Craig Bell run for 1 yd to the WKent 41Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+18
99.9%
Max Staver run for 3 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Julien Lewis) to the WKent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.8%
Max Staver pass incomplete to Ethan FrySimilar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-5
99.9%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (Eduardo Osegueda) to the WKent 28Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 15
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Max Staver pass incomplete to David RacineSimilar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+4
99.9%
Max Staver pass complete to Craig Bell for 4 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 11
OPP 24
0
100.0%
Max Staver pass incomplete to Isaiah Hall, broken up by Daeshawn BertramSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
99.9%
Ben Holt run for 1 yd to the WKent 25Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Marquez Trigg run for 6 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
Marquez Trigg run for 1 yd to the WKent 32Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Joseph Occhipinti punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brandon Taylor at the HstnB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
100.0%
Craig Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the HstnB 31Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+5
100.0%
Craig Bell run for 5 yds to the HstnB 36Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+11
100.0%
Max Staver pass complete to Brandon Taylor for 11 yds to the HstnB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
100.0%
Max Staver pass incomplete to David RacineSimilar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
100.0%
TEAM run for no gain to the HstnB 33 TEAM fumbled, recovered by HstnB Max StaverSimilar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 24
OWN 33
+4
100.0%
Craig Bell run for 4 yds to the HstnB 37Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 20
OWN 37
+4
100.0%
Christian Guzman punt for 35 yds , Nacarius Fant returns for 4 yds to the WKent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · 42 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
100.0%
Quinton Baker run for 13 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
100.0%
Quinton Baker run for 7 yds to the HstnB 48Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+23
100.0%
Quinton Baker run for 23 yds to the HstnB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
100.0%
Marquez Trigg run for 1 yd to the HstnB 24Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-2
100.0%
Quinton Baker run for a loss of 2 yards to the HstnB 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:19
Mike White pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 19 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)
+7.9
FG · Q2 5:59
Skyler Simcox 50 yd FG GOOD
+5.7
TD · Q2 0:25
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 80 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com