2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreWKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:05 · Skyler Simcox 18 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseDefense timeoutsTime remainingOffense timeoutsPregame priorGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q4 14:13: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 38 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +22.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:05: Skyler Simcox 18 yd FG GOOD — WKU win probability +34.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Anthony Wales run for 25 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK) — WKU win probability +24.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: I'Tavius Mathers 3 Yd Run (Canon Rooker Kick) — MTSU win probability +37.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · OT 0:00: Anthony Wales 1 Yd Run (Skyler Simcox Kick) — WKU win probability +65.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2WKU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 6:24MTSU 4th & 6 at WKU 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snapGo for it58.7%−0.138% to convertField goalTheir call58.8%77% to makePunt57.5%−1.2average punt
- Q1 2:29WKU 4th & 5 at MTSU 24, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snapGo for it40.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalTheir call40.5%68% to makePunt38.3%−2.3average punt
- Q4 3:48MTSU 4th & 3 at WKU 8, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snapGo for it59.5%47% to convertField goalTheir call56.2%−3.390% to makePunt29.0%−30.5average punt
- Q4 0:05WKU 4th & 1 at MTSU 1, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 12.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 28.6% before the snapGo for it52.4%59% to convertField goalTheir call40.2%−12.294% to makePunt7.9%−44.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 13:28MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.3%97% to makeGo for two63.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:10WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.7%97% to makeGo for two39.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:46WKU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.4%97% to makeGo for two49.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:31MTSU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.7%97% to makeGo for two62.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:02WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.6%97% to makeGo for two57.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:13MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.7%97% to makeGo for two52.5%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMTSUDrive 2FG1 play · 54 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3FG2 plays · 51 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5TD2 plays · 60 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6FG2 plays · 51 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7TD2 plays · 72 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
48.6%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 45 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
67.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 28 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9FG2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11TD1 play · 86 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 10:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
37.0%
Mike White pass complete to Shaquille Johnson for 4 yds for a TD, (Skyler Simcox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13TD1 play · 96 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q4 14:13
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+38
63.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 38 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15FG1 play · 60 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17FG1 play · 77 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18TD1 play · 25 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19TD3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 65%
MTSUDrive 20TD7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 85%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
64.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 3 yds to the WKent 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+6
64.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 6 yds to the WKent 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
64.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick Smith, broken up by Joe BrownSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
84.6%
Dennis Andrews 5 Yd pass from Brent Stockstill (Canon Rooker PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21TD6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0024% → 90%
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+11
75.8%
Mike White pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 11 yds to the MTnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Anthony Wales 1 Yd Run (Skyler Simcox Kick)
-65.7
TD · OT 0:00
I'Tavius Mathers 3 Yd Run (Canon Rooker Kick)
+37
FG · Q4 0:05
Skyler Simcox 18 yd FG GOOD
-34.5