Western Kentucky

Profile vs. FBS, 2019

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0835th
  Defense+0.0184th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.3%57th
  Defense37.8%86th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1423rd
  Defense+1.2342nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0337th
  Defense−0.0276th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1435th
  Defense+0.0484th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.5%57th
  Defense41.3%92nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.9%57th
  Defense31.1%68th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.6215th
  Defense2.7368th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense21.2%30th
  Defense20.0%55th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense19.3%52nd
  Defense18.1%24th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2019

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Western Kentucky allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   CARK
2. W
   FIU
3. L
   LOU
4. W
   UAB
5. W
   ODU
6. W
   ARMY
7. W
   CLT
8. L
   MRSH
9. L
   FAU
10. W
    ARK
11. W
    USM
12. W
    MTSU
13. W
    WMU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Western Kentucky.

Players, 2019

1. Ty StoreyQB436 plays · +0.178 pts/play · 41st of 228 QBs
   1.45WAR0.76 to 2.21
2. Gaej WalkerRB223 plays · +0.148 pts/play · 32nd of 349 RBs
   0.62WAR0.47 to 0.77
3. Lucky JacksonWR112 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 30th of 439 WRs
   0.27WAR0.14 to 0.41
4. Jahcour PearsonWR92 plays · +0.116 pts/play · 69th of 439 WRs
   0.20WAR0.09 to 0.30
5. Steven DuncanQB76 plays · +0.137 pts/play · 181st of 228 QBs
   0.20WAR0.05 to 0.33
6. Cory MunsonPK22 plays · +0.345 pts/play · 36th of 114 kickers
   0.14WAR0.08 to 0.21
7. Jacquez SloanWR45 plays · +0.148 pts/play · 161st of 439 WRs
   0.12WAR0.09 to 0.16
8. Quin JernighanWR45 plays · +0.099 pts/play · 255th of 439 WRs
   0.08WAR0.03 to 0.14

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Western Kentucky's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2019

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  48748782nd of 130Roster talent: 487, 82nd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14314383rd of 130Recruiting: 143, 83rd of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  76%76%27th of 130Returning production: 76%, 27th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +1.7+1.758th of 130SP+ rating: +1.7, 58th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Western Kentucky's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 8 clear-cut ones account for 0.18 of the 0.25 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at FIUQ3 8:39 4th & 1 at FIU 1, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.7 pts
2. at USMQ3 2:56 4th & 1 at WKU 48, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.1 pts
3. at WMUQ2 2:22 4th & 1 at WMU 7, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.8 pts
4. at USMQ3 6:40 4th & 2 at USM 42, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.4 pts
5. at ODUQ3 10:07 4th & 2 at ODU 2, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
6. vs ARMYQ3 7:27 4th & 3 at ARMY 3, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
7. vs FAUQ2 5:11 4th & 1 at WKU 32, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
8. vs UABQ3 2:59 4th & 2 at WKU 42, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2019

6th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Western Kentucky's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   CARK
2. W

   FIU
3. L

   LOU
4. W

   UAB
5. W

   ODU
6. W

   ARMY
7. W

   CLT
8. L

   MRSH
9. L

   FAU
10. W

    ARK
11. W

    USM
12. W

    MTSU
13. W

    WMU

What moved it, 2019

Every game starts at Western Kentucky's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.73
• Possession & field position+0.05
• Timeouts+0.08
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.02

Game by game

• CARKL 28-35 vs CARK76% → 6%Before kickoff +26 · On the field −71: Scoreboard −57, Clock −3
• FIUW 20-14 at FIU31% → 85%Before kickoff −19 · On the field +54: Scoreboard +49, Possession & field position −2
• LOUL 21-38 vs LOU24% → 2%Before kickoff −26 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −35, Timeouts +2
• UABW 20-13 vs UAB44% → 95%Before kickoff −6 · On the field +51: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts +1
• ODUW 20-3 at ODU64% → 99%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +42, Clock +2
• ARMYW 17-8 vs ARMY39% → 96%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts +2
• CLTW 30-14 vs CLT76% → 99%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +1
• MRSHL 23-26 at MRSH39% → 6%Before kickoff −11 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −34, Possession & field position +1
• FAUL 24-35 vs FAU50% → 4%Before kickoff 0 · On the field −46: Scoreboard −50, Clock −3
• ARKW 45-19 at ARK48% → 100%Before kickoff −2 · On the field +52: Scoreboard +54, Possession & field position +1
• USMW 28-10 at USM37% → 99%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +62: Scoreboard +59, Clock +3
• MTSUW 31-26 vs MTSU78% → 96%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +24, Timeouts +1
• WMUW 23-20 at WMU58% → 60%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +15, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from Western Kentucky's side.

Closest call

WKU 38-35 ODU (2023) - Western Kentucky dropped to a 2.4% win probability before pulling it out.