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WKU

Western Kentucky 28 at Southern Miss 10

USM
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · John Haggerty punt for 45 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−1.1Pregame prior+9.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:31: Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 68 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK) — USM win probability +4.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:07: Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 64 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK) — WKU win probability +7.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:02: Ty Storey pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 21 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK) — WKU win probability +10.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:40: Kevaris Thomas pass complete to Ty Storey for 6 yds to the SoMis 44 — WKU win probability +9.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:20: Gaej Walker run for no gain to the WKent 7 — WKU win probability +10.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 8 of 11WKU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00WKU 4th & 1 at USM 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.1%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:03USM 4th & 3 at USM 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:58WKU 4th & 5 at USM 20, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    43.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:31WKU 4th & 11 at WKU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:18USM 4th & 14 at USM 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:57USM 4th & 17 at USM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:07USM 4th & 10 at USM 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:45USM 4th & 8 at WKU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−3.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:26WKU 4th & 8 at USM 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:07USM 4th & 9 at USM 48, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.0%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:40WKU 4th & 2 at USM 42, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    76.7%−3.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:24USM 4th & 3 at USM 16, down 14
    Close callPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:56WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 48, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%−3.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00USM 4th & 1 at WKU 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    17.4%−2.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−9.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:20WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 14, up 14
    Close callPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:26USM 4th & 3 at USM 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:36WKU 4th & 9 at USM 11, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:36USM 4th & 4 at USM 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:52USM 4th & 5 at WKU 5, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.2%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:32WKU 4th & 1 at USM 37, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:03WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:31USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:07WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:02WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5737% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.6%
Gaej Walker run for 6 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
62.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 4 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
62.6%
Gaej Walker run for 9 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
62.6%
Gaej Walker run for 3 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
62.6%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Joshua SimonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+12
62.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 12 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
62.6%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Lucky JacksonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
62.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Joshua Simon for 4 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+6
62.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 6 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
62.6%
Gaej Walker run for 1 yd to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+8
62.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 8 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
62.6%
Ty Storey run for no gain to the SoMis 22Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+1
62.6%
Ty Storey run for 1 yd to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
59.5%
Jacquez Sloan run for 21 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.2%
De'Michael Harris run for 5 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
60.3%
De'Michael Harris run for 2 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
60.2%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:03
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
60.1%
Zac Everett punt for 52 yds, downed at the WKent 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3DOWNS
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:5841% → 42%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
59.5%
Gaej Walker run for 6 yds to the WKent 22Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
59.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 3 yds to the WKent 25Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+3
58.9%
Ty Storey run for 3 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+47
59.0%
Ty Storey pass complete to Joshua Simon for 47 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
58.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 5 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
58.2%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Joshua SimonSimilar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
58.3%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Lucky Jackson, broken up by Ty WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+3
57.7%
John Haggerty run for 3 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
2 plays · 83 yds · 0:1858% → 62%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
57.9%
ABRAHAM, Jack deep pass incomplete to JONES, Tim, PENALTY WKU pass interference (DARDEN, T.) 15 yards to the USM32, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
62.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 68 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
61.7%
Gaej Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 20Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
61.8%
Ty Storey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 11
OWN 20
0
62.2%
Ty Storey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:31
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
62.6%
John Haggerty punt for 55 yds, downed at the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
61.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
62.9%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+3
62.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 3 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-8
62.5%
Jack Abraham sacked by Juwuan Jones and Kyle Bailey for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 14
OWN 40
0
61.2%
Zac Everett punt for 53 yds, downed at the WKent 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:0039% → 38%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
61.2%
Gaej Walker run for 2 yds to the WKent 9Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+9
61.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 9 yds to the WKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
60.8%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Lucky Jackson, broken up by Ky'el HembySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
60.9%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for no gain to the WKent 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
61.6%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Quin JernighanSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
62.0%
John Haggerty punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
62.4%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 0
-10
61.6%
ABRAHAM, Jack RO pass complete to WATKINS, Quez for 9 yards to the USM46 (BAILEY, K.), PENALTY USM holding (FOXWORTH, Bryce) 10 yards to the USM27, NO PLAY, PENALTY USM ineligible downfield on pass declined.Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+1
61.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 1 yd to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 19
OWN 28
+2
60.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 2 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q2 13:57
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
60.5%
Zac Everett punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9TD
1 play · 64 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
53.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 64 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
53.7%
Jack Abraham sacked by DeAngelo Malone for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+10
53.5%
De'Michael Harris run for 10 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
53.0%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
52.5%
Zac Everett punt for 31 yds , Cardavion Myers returns for no gain to the WKent 44 Cardavion Myers fumbled, recovered by SoMis Devin ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11FUMBLE
9 plays · 43 yds · 0:0055% → 56%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
55.3%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the WKent 43Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-5
55.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the WKent 48Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+14
54.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 14 yds to the WKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
56.2%
De'Michael Harris run for 11 yds to the WKent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
56.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 5 yds to the WKent 18Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+3
56.2%
De'Michael Harris run for 3 yds to the WKent 15Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+4
55.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 4 yds to the WKent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-4
56.2%
Jack Abraham run for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 15Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 14
OPP 15
-1
55.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 14 yds Quez Watkins fumbled, forced by Dionte Ruffin, recovered by WKent Trae Meadows , return for no gain to the SoMis 15 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the SoMis 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:4553% → 64%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
47.2%
Gaej Walker run for 2 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+7
47.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 7 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+8
47.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 8 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
36.4%
Ty Storey pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 21 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13MISSED FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:1738% → 36%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
37.8%
De'Michael Harris run for 17 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
38.2%
De'Michael Harris run for 1 yd to the SoMis 30Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
38.1%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+12
37.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 12 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
39.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 10 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
40.3%
Kevin Perkins run for 9 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+10
40.3%
Kevin Perkins run for 10 yds to the WKent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
40.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
40.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 2 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
40.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
35.5%
Andrew Stein 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:3468% → 70%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
32.2%
Gaej Walker run for 1 yd to the WKent 28Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+10
32.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 10 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
29.4%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Quin Jernighan, broken up by Rachuan MitchellSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
29.6%
Gaej Walker run for 10 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
33.0%
De'Michael Harris run for 3 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+15
33.1%
ABRAHAM, Jack screen pass incomplete, QB hurry by MADDEN, J., PENALTY WKU roughing passer (MADDEN, J.) 15 yards to the USM31, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
33.5%
De'Michael Harris run for 2 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
33.5%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Antwon Kincade return for no gain to the WKent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
29.3%
Gaej Walker run for 6 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-1
29.0%
Gaej Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 43Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+7
29.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
50
+2
28.7%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 2 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-2
28.7%
Gaej Walker run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 10
50
+2
29.3%
Ty Storey run for 2 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
30.6%
John Haggerty punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0027% → 29%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
27.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 3 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+3
27.4%
Kevin Perkins run for 3 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+10
26.9%
Jack Abraham run for 10 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
27.8%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Beanie BishopSimilar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+20
27.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trevor Terry for 20 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
30.0%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
29.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Dionte RuffinSimilar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
29.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 9
OWN 48
+2
28.5%
Zac Everett pass complete to Rachuan Mitchell for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
50
+6
19.2%
Kevaris Thomas pass complete to Ty Storey for 6 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
18.8%
Gaej Walker run for no gain to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+2
19.4%
Ty Storey run for 2 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
20.9%
John Haggerty punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ty Williams at the SoMis 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
20.6%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to De'Michael Harris, broken up by Clay DavisSimilar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+9
20.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 9 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 1
OWN 18
-2
20.5%
Tim Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 16Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
20.1%
Zac Everett punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Roger Cray at the WKent 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
15.9%
Gaej Walker run for 4 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
16.0%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 5 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
16.1%
Ty Storey run for no gain to the WKent 48Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
17.2%
John Haggerty punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 78 yds · 0:4817% → 20%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
17.3%
Kevin Perkins run for no gain to the SoMis 15Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+12
17.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 12 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
17.1%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Marquis McCoy, broken up by Kyle BaileySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+10
16.7%
Jack Abraham run for 10 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
17.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+28
17.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 28 yds to the SOUMISS 35 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
20.5%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the WKent 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+18
20.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 18 yds to the WKent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
20.8%
De'Michael Harris run for 6 yds to the WKent 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+3
20.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 3 yds to the WKent 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
20.3%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Neil McLaurinSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 7
0
20.0%
De'Michael Harris run for no gain to the WKent 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
9.6%
Gaej Walker run for no gain to the WKent 7Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+7
9.7%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 7 yds to the WKent 14Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
10.3%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Lucky Jackson, broken up by Ty WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 3
OWN 14
+75
10.6%
John Haggerty punt for 64 yds, downed at the SOUMISS 22 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Tyler Barnes) to the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23FUMBLE TD
1 play · -6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
2.9%
Jack Abraham sacked by Jeremy Darvin for a loss of 6 yards Jack Abraham fumbled, recovered by WKent DeAngelo Malone , return for 0 yards , return for 5 yds, (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
2.9%
ABRAHAM, Jack FF pass incomplete to JONES, Tim, PENALTY WKU pass interference (DARDEN, T.) 15 yards to the USM38, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
3.0%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
3.0%
Jack Abraham run for 5 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 9:26
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
3.1%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Omari AlexanderSimilar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+2
3.1%
Tate Whatley run for 2 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25MISSED FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:3298% → 99%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
1.6%
Gaej Walker run for 3 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+30
1.6%
Gaej Walker run for 30 yds to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
1.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 16Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 14
OPP 16
+3
1.6%
Gaej Walker run for 3 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+2
1.7%
Gaej Walker run for 2 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+29
0.7%
Cory Munson 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26FG
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:441% → 2%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
1.3%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 14 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
1.3%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Dionte RuffinSimilar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
1.3%
Tate Whatley run for 6 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
1.3%
Kevin Perkins run for no gain to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+35
1.3%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 35 yds to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
1.7%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 16 yds to the WKent 9 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, roughing passer (4 Yards) to the WKent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
2.2%
Tate Whatley run for no gain to the WKent 5Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
2.0%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 4:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
1.9%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
2.1%
Andrew Stein 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 27END OF GAME
10 plays · 18 yds · 0:2099% → 99%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
0.7%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+1
0.5%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 39Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
0.8%
Garland LaFrance run for 2 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
0.9%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
0.8%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
0.7%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:02
Ty Storey pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 21 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)
-10.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:20
Gaej Walker run for no gain to the WKent 7
-10.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 6:40
Kevaris Thomas pass complete to Ty Storey for 6 yds to the SoMis 44
-9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com