2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreWKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:17 · Cory Munson 36 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 7:44: Lucky Jackson pass incomplete to Ty Storey — WKU win probability +5.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:50: Gaej Walker run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK) — WKU win probability +7.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Cory Munson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — WKU win probability +3.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- MISSED FG · Q3 5:31: Nick Rice 51 yd FG MISSED — WKU win probability +3.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:58: Ty Storey pass complete to Joshua Simon for 12 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK) — WKU win probability +15.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 15:00WKU 4th & 3 at ODU 44, tiedClose callPunted · 56.4% before the snapGo for it56.4%52% to convertField goal56.3%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call56.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 12:45ODU 4th & 10 at WKU 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snapGo for it44.2%−<0.130% to convertField goal44.2%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call44.3%average punt
- Q2 14:56ODU 4th & 5 at WKU 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snapGo for it48.1%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call48.2%91% to makePunt45.8%−2.4average punt
- Q2 9:42WKU 4th & 9 at ODU 13, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.9% before the snapGo for it49.2%−0.528% to convertField goalTheir call49.7%85% to makePunt45.5%−4.2average punt
- Q2 4:50ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snapGo for it37.2%−0.548% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.8%average punt
- Q2 0:14WKU 4th & 23 at ODU 33, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snapGo for it63.6%−2.27% to convertField goalTheir call65.7%49% to makePunt63.4%−2.3average punt
- Q3 15:00ODU 4th & 10 at ODU 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snapGo for it34.4%−2.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.6%average punt
- Q3 10:07WKU 4th & 2 at ODU 2, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snapGo for it68.3%48% to convertField goalTheir call66.2%−2.194% to makePunt57.3%−11.0average punt
- Q3 8:00ODU 4th & 1 at WKU 26, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.5%71% to convertField goal27.1%−2.464% to makePunt21.0%−8.5average punt
- Q3 5:31ODU 4th & 19 at WKU 34, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.8% before the snapGo for it22.9%−2.011% to convertField goalTheir call24.8%47% to makePunt24.0%−0.8average punt
- Q3 5:31WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 35, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snapGo for it71.9%−2.031% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.9%average punt
- Q3 3:34ODU 4th & 3 at WKU 39, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.6%53% to convertField goal24.1%−2.536% to makePunt24.3%−2.3average punt
- Q4 15:00ODU 4th & 17 at WKU 42, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snapGo for it21.1%−1.615% to convertField goal21.9%−0.730% to makePuntTheir call22.7%average punt
- Q4 7:58ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 34, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 6:07WKU 4th & 1 at ODU 25, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.6%71% to convertField goal94.8%−0.866% to makePunt92.5%−3.1average punt
- Q4 3:17WKU 4th & 4 at ODU 18, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.1%47% to convertField goalTheir call97.0%−0.179% to makePunt95.6%−1.5average punt
- Q4 3:17ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 37, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.7%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 4:50WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.9%97% to makeGo for two60.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:58WKU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.3%97% to makeGo for two94.1%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWKUDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
36.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for no gain to the WKent 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+21
36.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 21 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
36.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Garland LaFrance for 7 yds to the ODU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2PUNT12 plays · 42 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 12:45
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+14
37.3%
Stone Smartt pass complete to Robert Washington for 14 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3INT2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
ODUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -21 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
WKUDrive 5FUMBLE4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
ODUDrive 6FG4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5243% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7FG13 plays · 67 yds · 5:1057% → 58%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
43.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 3 yds to the WKent 23Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+9
43.5%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 9 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+29
43.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 29 yds to the ODU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+10
42.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Tyler Smith for 10 yds to the ODU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
42.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 1 yd to the ODU 13Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
42.9%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Jahcour Pearson, broken up by Calvin BrewtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8INT5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
WKUDrive 9TD8 plays · 32 yds · 2:5460% → 68%
Q2 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
39.7%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 1 yd to the ODU 31Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+5
40.5%
STOREY, T. pass intercepted by BREWTON, Calvin at the ODU5, BREWTON, Calvin return to the ODU5, PENALTY ODU offside defense 5 yards to the ODU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+13
40.3%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, personal foul (13 Yards) to the ODU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11MISSED FG10 plays · 39 yds · 2:5967% → 68%
Q2 3:13
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+18
33.1%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
50
+15
31.1%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, roughing passer (Marcus Haynes) to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
30.8%
STOREY, T. pass incomplete to SLOAN, J., PENALTY ODU offside defense (ROSS, Juwan) 0 yards to the ODU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-14
28.5%
Ty Storey sacked by Juwan Ross for a loss of 14 yards to the ODU 33 Ty Storey fumbled, recovered by WKent Lucky Jackson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
WKUDrive 14FG10 plays · 74 yds · 3:5769% → 72%
ODUDrive 15MISSED FG15 plays · 41 yds · 4:3627% → 22%
Q3 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
27.1%
Stone Smartt pass complete to Nigel Fitzgerald for 29 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
29.8%
Stone Smartt pass incomplete to Kesean Strong, broken up by Devon KeySimilar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
29.6%
SMARTT, Stone pass incomplete to HENDRICK, C., PENALTY WKU pass interference (RUFFIN, D.) 11 yards to the WKU35, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
31.4%
Stone Smartt pass complete to Kesean Strong for 8 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
29.1%
SMARTT, Stone pass incomplete to BROWN, Darrell, QB hurry by JONES, J., PENALTY ODU personal foul (JOYNER, Marcus) 15 yards to the WKU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 23
OPP 38
+4
26.1%
Stone Smartt pass complete to Kesean Strong for 4 yds to the WKent 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q3 5:31
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-5
23.0%
Ty Storey run for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 35 Ty Storey fumbled, recovered by WKent Ty StoreySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17PUNT11 plays · 22 yds · 3:3423% → 20%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
22.8%
Stone Smartt pass incomplete to Cornell Hendrick Jr., broken up by Dionté RuffinSimilar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+18
22.5%
SMARTT, Stone pass complete to SPENCER, Isaiah for no gain to the ODU36 (LOWE, D.), PENALTY WKU personal foul (LOWE, D.) 18 yards to the WKU46, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
24.8%
Stone Smartt pass complete to Robert Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 47Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+4
23.5%
Stone Smartt pass complete to Steven Williams for 4 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-10
26.3%
Stone Smartt sacked by DeAngelo Malone for a loss of 10 yards to the WKent 45 OLDDOMINION Penalty, intentional grounding (Stone Smartt) to the WKent 45Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 20
OPP 45
+13
22.9%
Stone Smartt pass complete to Aaron Moore for 13 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 32
-10
21.2%
SMARTT, Stone pass complete to FITZGERALD, N. for 9 yards to the WKU23 (RUFFIN, D.), PENALTY ODU holding (CERVANTES, D.) 10 yards to the WKU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 17
OPP 42
+7
20.0%
Bailey Cate punt for 35 yds , Dayton Wade returns for 7 yds to the WKent 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18TD13 plays · 86 yds · 6:3578% → 97%
Q4 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-3
22.8%
Ty Storey pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 9 yds to the WKent 23 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, face mask (12 yards) (Quin Jernighan) to the WKent 11Similar
Q4 14:33
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+11
23.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 11 yds to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
21.9%
STOREY, T. pass complete to WALKER, G. for loss of 1 yard to the WKU26 (YOUNG, Jordan), PENALTY WKU illegal shift (ALEXANDER, O.) 5 yards to the WKU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
22.8%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, offside defense (Keion White) to the WKent 27Similar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
20.2%
Ty Storey pass complete to Gaej Walker for no gain to the WKent 42Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+25
20.6%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 25 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
3.3%
Ty Storey pass complete to Joshua Simon for 12 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
WKUDrive 20MISSED FG11 plays · 16 yds · 3:4597% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21DOWNS6 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
WKUDrive 22END OF GAME3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:58
Ty Storey pass complete to Joshua Simon for 12 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)
-15.6
TD · Q2 4:50
Gaej Walker run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)
-7.8
KEY PLAY · Q2 7:44
Lucky Jackson pass incomplete to Ty Storey
-5.5