Try the model
CARK

Central Arkansas 35 at Western Kentucky 28

WKU
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2019 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadCARK aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreCARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:51 · Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Lucky Jackson, broken up by Isaiah Macklin
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Pregame prior+0.4Home team on offense−24.2Garbage-time factor−13.4Score differential−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:26: Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 4 yds for a TD, (Hayden Ray KICK) — CARK win probability +8.7 pts (now 27%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:54: Gaej Walker run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK) — WKU win probability +9.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:55: Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 20 yds for a TD, (Hayden Ray KICK) — CARK win probability +11.2 pts (now 23%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:59: Carlos Blackman pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 80 yds for a TD, (Hayden Ray KICK) — CARK win probability +31.0 pts (now 45%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:51: Carlos Blackman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Hayden Ray KICK) — CARK win probability +27.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00CARK 4th & 10 at CARK 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:39CARK 4th & 14 at CARK 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:11CARK 4th & 3 at CARK 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00CARK 4th & 1 at WKU 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    19.2%−1.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−5.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:59CARK 4th & 2 at WKU 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.3%−0.7
    70% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:52WKU 4th & 5 at WKU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:27CARK 4th & 8 at CARK 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:54CARK 4th & 16 at CARK 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:13WKU 4th & 2 at CARK 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    88.2%−1.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:10WKU 4th & 9 at CARK 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−9.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:53WKU 4th & 8 at WKU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−4.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:43WKU 4th & 3 at CARK 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    21.6%−5.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−3.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:42CARK 4th & 12 at CARK 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:51WKU 4th & 5 at CARK 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−5.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−6.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:45WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:16WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:59CARK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:03WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:26CARK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:54WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:55CARK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:59CARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:51CARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CARKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
76.4%
Carlos Blackman run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+4
76.4%
Carlos Blackman run for 4 yds to the CArk 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-3
76.4%
Carlos Blackman run for a loss of 3 yards to the CArk 20Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
76.4%
Taylor Wallace punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Clayton Bush at the WKent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
76.5%
Gaej Walker run for 68 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
76.5%
Carlos Blackman run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 3Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+13
76.5%
Smith, Breylin pass incomplete to Winningham, Luj, PENALTY WKU pass interference (MEADOWS, T.) 13 yards to the UCA16, 1ST DOWN UCA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
76.5%
Carlos Blackman run for 5 yds to the CArk 21Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+1
76.5%
Breylin Smith run for 1 yd to the CArk 22Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 4
OWN 22
-10
76.5%
Breylin Smith sacked by DeAngelo Malone for a loss of 10 yards to the CArk 12Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
76.6%
Taylor Wallace punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Clayton Bush at the WKent 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:4777% → 80%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
77.0%
Gaej Walker run for no gain to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
76.9%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 9 yds to the CArk 47Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
76.9%
Steven Duncan run for 3 yds to the CArk 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
77.1%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Jahcour PearsonSimilar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
77.0%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 4 yds to the CArk 40Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+14
76.9%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 14 yds to the CArk 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
77.1%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Gaej Walker for 15 yds to the CArk 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
77.1%
Gaej Walker run for 6 yds to the CArk 5Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
80.2%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Joshua Simon for 5 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
79.0%
Richmond, Chris rush for 1 yard to the UCA28 (KEY, D.;MEADOWS, T.), PENALTY UCA illegal shift 5 yards to the UCA22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+5
79.1%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 5 yds to the CArk 27Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-5
79.1%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CArk 22Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+12
79.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Christian Richmond for 12 yds to the CArk 34Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
79.0%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
79.1%
Taylor Wallace punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CArk 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
81.0%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Lucky Jackson) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 15
50
+2
80.8%
Gaej Walker run for 2 yds to the CArk 48Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+5
80.8%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 5 yds to the CArk 43Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+7
80.7%
Steven Duncan pass intercepted Duke Upshaw return for 7 yds to the CArk 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:3720% → 20%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
79.6%
Smith, Breylin pass incomplete to Crossley, Kierr, dropped pass, PENALTY UCA holding (Harris, Adriann) 10 yards to the UCA29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+31
79.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 31 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
79.2%
Kierre Crossley run for 6 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+19
78.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 19 yds to the WKent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
78.7%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tyler HudsonSimilar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-5
78.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Kierre Crossley for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 20Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+14
79.6%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Kierre Crossley for 14 yds to the WKent 6Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 6
0
79.8%
Carlos Blackman run for no gain to the WKent 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8INT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:2381% → 81%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+16
81.4%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 16 yds to the WKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-8
80.9%
SLOAN, J. rush for 9 yards to the WKU31 (Norris, Austin), PENALTY WKU holding (JERNIGHAN, Q.) 8 yards to the WKU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 18
OWN 14
+6
80.8%
Gaej Walker run for 6 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+9
80.7%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 9 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+5
80.6%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 5 yds to the WKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
81.0%
Steven Duncan pass intercepted Robert Rochell return for no gain to the CArk 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 9TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:1120% → 25%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
80.1%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 11 yds to the CArk 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
79.9%
Carlos Blackman run for 7 yds to the CArk 48Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 3
OWN 48
-9
79.4%
Breylin Smith sacked by DeAngelo Malone and Jaylon George for a loss of 9 yards to the CArk 39Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+30
80.6%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 30 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
78.9%
Carlos Blackman run for 5 yds to the WKent 26Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
78.6%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan WinninghamSimilar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+3
79.1%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Michael Fox for 3 yds to the WKent 23Similar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+23
75.1%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 23 yds for a TD, (Hayden Ray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 5:5177% → 85%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
76.7%
Gaej Walker run for 3 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+4
76.5%
Steven Duncan run for 4 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+22
76.2%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jakairi Moses for 22 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
78.1%
Gaej Walker run for 6 yds to the CArk 48Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+12
78.2%
Gaej Walker run for 12 yds to the CArk 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
78.3%
Gaej Walker run for 4 yds to the CArk 32Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
78.4%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Joshua SimonSimilar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+12
77.9%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 12 yds to the CArk 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
78.4%
Lucky Jackson run for 15 yds to the CArk 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
78.4%
Gaej Walker run for 2 yds to the CArk 3Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
78.4%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Lucky Jackson, broken up by Robert RochellSimilar
Q2 3:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.1%
Steven Duncan run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:3716% → 27%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
84.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Carlos Blackman for 23 yds to the CArk 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
83.6%
Carlos Blackman run for 11 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
83.1%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Carlos BlackmanSimilar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+13
83.2%
Smith, Breylin pass incomplete to Winningham, Luj, PENALTY WKU pass interference (RUFFIN, D.) 13 yards to the WKU28, 1ST DOWN UCA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
82.0%
Carlos Blackman run for 1 yd to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
82.4%
Carlos Blackman run for no gain to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+12
83.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 12 yds to the WKent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
82.0%
Breylin Smith run for no gain to the WKent 15Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+11
82.0%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 11 yds to the WKent 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
73.3%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 4 yds for a TD, (Hayden Ray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
78.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
78.0%
Gaej Walker run for 2 yds to the WKent 14Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+3
77.9%
Steven Duncan run for 3 yds to the WKent 17Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
77.2%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Quin Jernighan, broken up by Austin NorrisSimilar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 5
OWN 17
+7
76.3%
John Haggerty punt for 60 yds , Tyler Hudson returns for 7 yds to the CArk 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
77.1%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Kylan RobinsonSimilar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
77.5%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lujuan WinninghamSimilar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+2
78.3%
Carlos Blackman run for 2 yds to the CArk 32Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
78.6%
Taylor Wallace punt for 28 yds, downed at the WKent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:4180% → 89%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
79.6%
Gaej Walker run for 8 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+20
79.9%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 20 yds to the CArk 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-14
80.2%
Jahcour Pearson run for a loss of 14 yards to the CArk 46Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 24
OPP 46
+6
78.9%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Joshua Simon for 6 yds to the CArk 40Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 18
OPP 40
+26
78.1%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jakairi Moses for 26 yds to the CArk 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
80.2%
KeShawn McClendon run for 4 yds to the CArk 10Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
89.4%
Gaej Walker run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.5%
Kierre Crossley run for no gain to the CArk 25Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
87.6%
Breylin Smith sacked by Juwuan Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the CArk 19Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
87.9%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Tyler Hudson, broken up by Omari AlexanderSimilar
Q3 8:54
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
88.1%
Taylor Wallace punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Clayton Bush at the WKent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
89.8%
Gaej Walker run for 9 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+2
90.4%
Gaej Walker run for 2 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
90.4%
Gaej Walker run for 2 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
90.4%
Gaej Walker run for 5 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+8
89.9%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Garland LaFrance for 8 yds to the CArk 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
90.6%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Lucky JacksonSimilar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
90.5%
Jakairi Moses run for 6 yds to the CArk 38Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+2
90.2%
Steven Duncan run for 2 yds to the CArk 36Similar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
89.5%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Joshua Simon WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, H0 ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 18TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:3311% → 23%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
89.2%
Carlos Blackman run for 5 yds to the CArk 41Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
88.7%
Carlos Blackman run for 4 yds to the CArk 45Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
88.7%
Carlos Blackman run for 3 yds to the CArk 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+30
88.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Carlos Blackman for 30 yds to the WKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
87.3%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Dwight Blakey for no gain to the WKent 22Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
87.8%
Kierre Crossley run for 2 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
76.6%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 20 yds for a TD, (Hayden Ray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19MISSED FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:3885% → 86%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+42
85.4%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Joshua Simon for 42 yds to the CArk 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
86.9%
Jacquez Sloan run for a loss of 3 yards to the CArk 44Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+17
86.1%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 17 yds to the CArk 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
87.1%
CENTRAL ARK Penalty, Defensive offside (Austin Norris) to the CArk 22Similar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 5
OPP 22
+6
87.1%
Gaej Walker run for 6 yds to the CArk 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
87.1%
KeShawn McClendon run for 1 yd to the CArk 15Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-10
87.8%
DUNCAN, S. pass complete to MOSES, J. for 15 yards to the UCA0, clock 11:28, PENALTY WKU holding (WITT, T.) 10 yards to the UCA25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 19
OPP 25
+7
87.3%
Steven Duncan run for 7 yds to the CArk 18Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 12
OPP 18
+3
86.7%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jakairi Moses for 3 yds to the CArk 15Similar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+32
86.3%
Cory Munson 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 20TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
55.4%
Carlos Blackman pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 80 yds for a TD, (Hayden Ray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0060% → 56%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
59.7%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Lucky JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
59.3%
Steven Duncan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+2
57.3%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 2 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
56.2%
John Haggerty punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tyler Hudson at the CArk 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 22TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:0246% → 83%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+38
54.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Kierre Crossley for 38 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+35
48.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 35 yds to the WKent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
46.1%
Kierre Crossley run for no gain to the WKent 1Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
46.0%
Breylin Smith run for no gain to the WKent 1Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.5%
Carlos Blackman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Hayden Ray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
25.8%
Gaej Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 35Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+12
24.7%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 12 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
28.5%
Joshua Samuel run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+3
26.1%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 3 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+5
26.6%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Joshua Samuel for 5 yds to the CArk 46Similar
Q4 6:43
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+2
27.0%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 2 yds to the CArk 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0188% → 88%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
12.5%
Smith, Breylin pass incomplete to Winningham, Luj (MEADOWS, T.), PENALTY UCA holding (Hines, Sanderso) 10 yards to the UCA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 20
OWN 34
0
14.3%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Luke RossSimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 20
OWN 34
0
14.7%
Carlos Blackman run for no gain to the CArk 34Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 20
OWN 34
+8
15.9%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Carlos Blackman for 8 yds to the CArk 42Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
11.7%
Taylor Wallace punt for 36 yds, downed at the WKent 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 1:3918% → 13%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
18.3%
Joshua Samuel run for 6 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-3
19.7%
Steven Duncan sacked by A'Javius Brown and Nathan Grant for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 25Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+25
11.6%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
50
+12
15.0%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 12 yds to the CArk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
16.1%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Lucky Jackson, broken up by Robert RochellSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
15.7%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Joshua Samuel for 5 yds to the CArk 33Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
17.1%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Lucky JacksonSimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 5
OPP 33
0
13.0%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Lucky Jackson, broken up by Isaiah MacklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
5.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the CArk 30Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 13
OWN 30
-3
5.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the CArk 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:59
Carlos Blackman pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 80 yds for a TD, (Hayden Ray KICK)
-31
TD · Q4 6:51
Carlos Blackman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Hayden Ray KICK)
-27.1
TD · Q4 14:55
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for 20 yds for a TD, (Hayden Ray KICK)
-11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com