2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreUAB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:03 · Joseph Occhipinti punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jamarcus Nelson at the UAB 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 10:55: Jordan Howard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ty Long KICK) — UAB win probability +10.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:16: Cody Clements run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK) — UAB win probability +14.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:52: Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for 75 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK) — UAB win probability +19.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:55: B. Doughty pass,to A. Grant for 24 yds for a TD, (B. Doughty failed ) — WKU win probability +18.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:00: Cody Clements pass intercepted for a TD Ricardo Singh return for 85 yds for a TD, (Brandon Doughty intercepted ), (Brandon Doughty intercepted ), (Brandon Doughty intercepted ) — WKU win probability +23.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UAB made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 2:22UAB 4th & 6 at WKU 43, down 6Close callPunted · 19.3% before the snapGo for it19.5%40% to convertField goal19.1%−0.428% to makePuntTheir call19.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:16WKU 4th & 10 at UAB 10, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snapGo for it80.1%−0.424% to convertField goalTheir call80.5%88% to makePunt77.3%−3.2average punt
- Q2 8:03UAB 4th & 2 at UAB 39, down 6Close callPunted · 20.1% before the snapGo for it20.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.7%−0.5average punt
- Q3 14:55WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 27, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snapGo for it87.3%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.7%average punt
- Q3 10:55WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 34, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt78.8%−1.2average punt
- Q3 7:03WKU 4th & 14 at WKU 36, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snapGo for it60.2%−3.718% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.0%average punt
- Q4 12:17WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 42, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snapGo for it89.6%−0.537% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.1%average punt
- Q4 6:48UAB 4th & 5 at WKU 20, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.0%40% to convertField goal8.0%−<0.175% to makePunt5.2%−2.8average punt
- Q4 5:44WKU 4th & 2 at UAB 47, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt93.6%−0.5average punt
- Q4 5:44WKU 4th & 3 at UAB 33, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.0%53% to convertField goal93.5%−0.549% to makePunt93.0%−0.9average punt
- Q4 2:29UAB 4th & 1 at WKU 48, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.6%−1.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UAB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 14:47UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.6%97% to makeGo for two17.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 11:10WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.6%97% to makeGo for two81.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:50WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.9%97% to makeGo for two81.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:40UAB Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.8%97% to makeGo for two20.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:30WKU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.8%97% to makeGo for two85.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:55UAB Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.9%97% to makeGo for two19.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:16UAB Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.9%97% to makeGo for two32.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 5:52UAB Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.8%97% to makeGo for two53.6%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWKUDrive 2TD11 plays · 72 yds · 3:3185% → 84%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 5
OWN 33
+6
84.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 6 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
84.9%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the WKent 34Similar
Q1 14:41
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+4
84.8%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for 4 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+4
84.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Joel German for 4 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q1 14:41
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+10
84.9%
DOUGHTY, B. pass incomplete to GRANT, Antwane, PENALTY UAB holding (JEAN, Jimmy) 10 yards to the UAB48, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
84.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for no gain to the UAB 48Similar
Q1 14:41
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+32
84.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for 32 yds to the UAB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
84.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 15 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3FUMBLE7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
83.8%
Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for 6 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
83.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Maudrecus Humphrey for 7 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+4
83.6%
D.J. Vinson run for 4 yds to the WKent 38 D.J. Vinson fumbled, forced by Prince Charles Iworah, recovered by WKent Rico BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4TD8 plays · 62 yds · 2:5284% → 85%
Q1 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+12
83.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 12 yds to the UAB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+9
83.8%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 9 yds to the UAB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+30
83.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 30 yds to the UAB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5TD15 plays · 80 yds · 4:0216% → 20%
Q1 6:42
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+5
83.9%
Cody Clements pass complete to Maudrecus Humphrey for 5 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+5
83.8%
Cody Clements pass complete to Darius Powell for 5 yds to the WKent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-7
83.6%
Cody Clements sacked by Bryan Shorter for a loss of 7 yards to the WKent 33Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+24
80.5%
Cody Clements pass complete to Kennard Backman for 24 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
83.9%
Anthony Wales run for 75 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman BLOCKED), (Garrett Schwettman BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
WKUDrive 8MISSED FG17 plays · 88 yds · 5:1184% → 83%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
83.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Leon Allen for 9 yds to the WKent 35Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
83.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Mitchell Henry for 21 yds to the UAB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
84.3%
DOUGHTY, B. pass incomplete to NORRIS, N. (SLAUGHTER, Dere), PENALTY UAB holding (JEAN, Jimmy) 10 yards to the UAB33, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
84.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 9 yds to the UAB 24Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
84.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for 9 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
84.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Mitchell Henry for 17 yds to the UAB 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
84.5%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Joel German, broken up by Rolan MilliganSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
84.1%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Mitchell Henry, broken up by Shaq JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:1317% → 17%
Q2 10:16
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
82.3%
Cody Clements pass complete to Maudrecus Humphrey for 3 yds to the UAB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-5
81.8%
[SHOT], CLEMENTS, Cody rush for 4 yards to the UAB43 (WARD, Marcus), PENALTY UAB illegal shift 5 yards to the UAB34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+5
82.8%
Cody Clements pass complete to Tristan Henderson for 5 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
83.0%
Hunter Mullins punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kylen Towner at the WKent 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10TD5 plays · 78 yds · 1:2584% → 90%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
83.8%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Anthony Wales for 13 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+39
83.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Joel German for 39 yds to the UAB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
85.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 5 yds to the UAB 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11MISSED FG17 plays · 41 yds · 6:1818% → 13%
Q2 6:24
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+12
82.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Nyiakki Height for 12 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
81.8%
Cody Clements pass complete to Darius Powell for 9 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+17
80.8%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 17 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+5
80.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Nyiakki Height for 5 yds to the WKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
79.8%
CLEMENTS, Cody rush for 7 yards to the WKU4 (SINGH, Ricardo), PENALTY UAB illegal formation 5 yards to the WKU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 15
OPP 16
-7
80.1%
Cody Clements sacked by Gavin Rocker for a loss of 7 yards to the WKent 23Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 22
OPP 23
-8
80.9%
Cody Clements sacked by Nick Holt and Rico Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the WKent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 14:55
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+5
87.9%
Joseph Occhipinti punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 40 , Jamarcus Nelson returns for 5 yds to the UAB 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14TD6 plays · 60 yds · 2:0213% → 25%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
85.9%
Cody Clements pass complete to Maudrecus Humphrey for 1 yd to the WKent 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for 5 yds to the WKent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16TD5 plays · 34 yds · 1:2725% → 40%
Q3 9:43
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+8
74.6%
Cody Clements pass complete to Maudrecus Humphrey for 8 yds to the WKent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17PUNT7 plays · -4 yds · 1:0669% → 66%
Q3 8:09
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-5
68.2%
DOUGHTY, B. pass complete to GRANT, Antwane for 6 yards to the WKU47, out-of-bounds (MOORE, Ja'Kii), PENALTY WKU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the WKU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 14
OWN 36
0
66.8%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Joel German, broken up by Rolan MilliganSimilar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
65.5%
Joseph Occhipinti punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jamarcus Nelson at the UAB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 18TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5735% → 54%
WKUDrive 19TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5749% → 71%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
48.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 9 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
50
-2
52.7%
Brandon Doughty sacked by Jake Ganus for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 48Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+17
50.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 17 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-1
55.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 35Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+11
52.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Mitchell Henry for 11 yds to the UAB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
70.5%
B. Doughty pass,to A. Grant for 24 yds for a TD, (B. Doughty failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 20INT TD9 plays · 52 yds · 2:4740% → 22%
Q3 2:47
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+31
58.5%
Cody Clements pass complete to Jamarcus Nelson for 31 yds to the WKent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+1
54.0%
Cody Clements pass complete to Nyiakki Height for 1 yd to the WKent 22Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+85
77.7%
Cody Clements pass intercepted for a TD Ricardo Singh return for 85 yds for a TD, (Brandon Doughty intercepted ), (Brandon Doughty intercepted ), (Brandon Doughty intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 22TD9 plays · 86 yds · 2:439% → 10%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
91.5%
CLEMENTS, Cody pass incomplete to NELSON, JJ (IWORAH, Prince), PENALTY WKU pass interference 15 yards to the UAB29, 1ST DOWN UAB, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
91.4%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense (Nick Holt) to the UAB 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+44
90.9%
Cody Clements pass complete to Maudrecus Humphrey for 44 yds to the WKent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
UABDrive 24FUMBLE12 plays · 75 yds · 4:317% → 6%
Q4 11:19
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+3
91.2%
Cody Clements pass complete to Nyiakki Height for 3 yds to the WKent 25Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+12
94.9%
Cody Clements pass complete to Maudrecus Humphrey for 12 yds to the WKent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+37
93.7%
Jordan Howard run for 3 yds to the WKent 45 Jordan Howard fumbled, forced by Daqual Randall, recovered by WKent Cam Thomas , return for 37 yds to the WKent 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25DOWNS9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-5
95.2%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Willie McNeal) to the WKent 40Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+13
95.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 13 yds to the UAB 47Similar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+7
95.0%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Mitchell Henry for 7 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 3
OPP 33
0
95.6%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Joel German, broken up by Rolan MilliganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 26END OF GAME12 plays · 19 yds · 1:343% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-97.1
TD · Q3 0:00
Cody Clements pass intercepted for a TD Ricardo Singh return for 85 yds for a TD, (Brandon Doughty intercepted ), (Brandon Doughty intercepted ), (Brandon Doughty intercepted )
+23.7
TD · Q3 5:52
Cody Clements pass complete to Josh Magee for 75 yds for a TD, (Ty Long KICK)
-19.4