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WKU

Western Kentucky 34 at Illinois 42

ILL
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.9ILL 52.3%Garrett Schwettman 41 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 7 · Q1 5:35
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:35 · Garrett Schwettman 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:41: Mike Dudek 0 Yd Fumble Return (Taylor Zalewski Kick) — ILL win probability +11.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 9:36: Wes Lunt pass complete to Martize Barr for 8 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +16.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:09: Wonderful Terry 95 Yd Fumble Return (Garrett Schwettman Kick) — WKU win probability +18.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 12:27: Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 62 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +22.5 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:15: Brandon Doughty pass intercepted for a TD Taylor Barton return for 77 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK) — ILL win probability +25.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00WKU 4th & 15 at ILL 44, tied
    Close callWent for it · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.4%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    44.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:26WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:44ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:35WKU 4th & 7 at ILL 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:00ILL 4th & 1 at WKU 1, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:12WKU 4th & 1 at ILL 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    40.1%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:59ILL 4th & 3 at WKU 33, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%−1.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:41WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:36WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:00WKU 4th & 2 at ILL 2, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%−3.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−18.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:15WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 36, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:58ILL 4th & 5 at WKU 17, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−5.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:26ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:12WKU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:15WKU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:41ILL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:36ILL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:09WKU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:27ILL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.8
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:15ILL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:43ILL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:26WKU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 16 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
49.6%
Leon Allen run for 4 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+7
49.6%
Leon Allen run for 7 yds to the WKent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
49.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Tyler Higbee for 6 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+28
49.6%
Leon Allen run for 28 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
49.6%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 44
0
49.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for no gain to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 44
0
49.6%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Tyler HigbeeSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 44
0
49.6%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Willie McNealSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 44
-10
49.6%
Joseph Occhipinti run for a loss of 10 yards to the WKent 32 Joseph Occhipinti fumbled, recovered by WKent Joseph OcchipintiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:5351% → 52%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+30
50.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Matt LaCosse for 30 yds to the WKent 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
50.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Matt LaCosseSimilar
Q1 12:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
50.6%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd to the WKent 1Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.6%
Leon Allen run for 3 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
51.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 8 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
51.4%
Leon Allen run for 1 yd to the WKent 37Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
51.4%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Taywan TaylorSimilar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
51.6%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Tyler HigbeeSimilar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
51.7%
Joseph Occhipinti punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Matt LaCosseSimilar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
52.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
52.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:44
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.3%
Justin DuVernois punt for 52 yds , Kylen Towner returns for 7 yds to the WKent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:0047% → 48%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
52.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Joel German for 14 yds to the WKent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-6
52.4%
Brandon Doughty sacked by DeJazz Woods for a loss of 6 yards to the WKent 38Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+14
52.8%
Leon Allen run for 14 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+12
52.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 12 yds Jared Dangerfield fumbled, forced by Taylor Barton, recovered by Illin Jarrod ClementsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
54.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 6 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, sideline interference (5 Yards) to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
54.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 20
OWN 42
0
54.1%
Wes Lunt run for no gain to the Illin 40 Wes Lunt fumbled, recovered by WKent Devante TerrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7FG
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:2347% → 48%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
53.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 13 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-6
52.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Leon Allen for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 16
OPP 33
+9
53.2%
Leon Allen run for 9 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
53.3%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Willie McNeal, broken up by Dawuane SmootSimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
52.3%
Garrett Schwettman 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8DOWNS
13 plays · 71 yds · 0:3553% → 54%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
52.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 9 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 1
OWN 37
0
53.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+6
53.6%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense (6 Yards) to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
53.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Jon Davis for 9 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+8
54.3%
Donovonn Young run for 8 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
54.2%
Donovonn Young run for 2 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+32
54.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 32 yds to the WKent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
54.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Matt LaCosse, broken up by Prince Charles IworahSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
54.6%
Donovonn Young run for 5 yds to the WKent 1Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
54.2%
Donovonn Young run for no gain to the WKent 1Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.7%
Donovonn Young run for no gain to the WKent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9TD
19 plays · 99 yds · 5:5845% → 51%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
54.8%
Leon Allen run for 2 yds to the WKent 3Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+1
54.9%
Leon Allen run for 1 yd to the WKent 4Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+12
55.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Leon Allen for 12 yds to the WKent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
54.4%
Leon Allen run for 4 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+2
54.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 2 yds to the WKent 22Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+9
54.8%
Brandon Doughty run for 9 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
54.9%
Kylen Towner run for 7 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+19
53.9%
Leon Allen run for 19 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
53.6%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Taywan TaylorSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+19
53.7%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Leon Allen for 19 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
53.0%
Leon Allen run for 2 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
53.0%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Jared Dangerfield, broken up by Zane PettySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+11
53.8%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for 11 yds to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
53.0%
Leon Allen run for 6 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+3
53.0%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive holding (Darius Mosely) to the Illin 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
53.0%
Leon Allen run for no gain to the Illin 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
53.0%
Leon Allen run for 1 yd to the Illin 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.7%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 11:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.3%
Leon Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:1351% → 51%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
50.6%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 20Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 14
OWN 20
0
50.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+15
49.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Josh Ferguson for 15 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
50.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 14 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
52.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 11 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
52.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 5 yds to the WKent 35Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+2
53.8%
Mike Dudek run for 2 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
52.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Mike DudekSimilar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+50
50.7%
Taylor Zalewski 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:4452% → 63%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
47.9%
Leon Allen run for 4 yds to the WKent 37Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
47.3%
Leon Allen run for 3 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+17
46.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for 17 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
46.3%
Anthony Wales run for 3 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+21
46.3%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Joel German for 21 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
45.6%
Leon Allen run for 3 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
45.6%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Antwane GrantSimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+16
37.2%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Tyler Higbee for 16 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12FUMBLE RETURN TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 3:3439% → 50%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
38.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Martize Barr for 7 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+6
39.4%
Josh Ferguson run for 6 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
39.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Martize BarrSimilar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
39.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
50
+2
40.5%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
40.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 7 yds to the WKent 41Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+4
40.7%
Josh Ferguson run for 4 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+30
37.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 30 yds to the WKent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
38.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
38.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Josh FergusonSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
50.2%
Mike Dudek 0 Yd Fumble Return (Taylor Zalewski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
44.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Leon Allen for 8 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
43.2%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
43.6%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Leon AllenSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
45.4%
Joseph Occhipinti punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Darius Mosely at the Illin 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.4%
Josh Ferguson run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 5:2448% → 67%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
48.1%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+21
47.9%
Josh Ferguson run for 21 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
51.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Matt LaCosse for 2 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+25
51.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Jon Davis for 25 yds to the WKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
52.6%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
52.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Matt LaCosseSimilar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+13
48.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 13 yds to the WKent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
50.6%
Josh Ferguson run for 2 yds to the WKent 5Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 0
OPP 5
+3
52.1%
Ferguson, Josh pass incomplete to Davis, Jon, PENALTY WKU roughing passer (WARD, Marcus) 3 yards to the WKU2, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
50.6%
Wes Lunt run for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 6Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
50.6%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 8 Josh Ferguson fumbled, recovered by Illin Josh FergusonSimilar
Q3 9:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
66.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Martize Barr for 8 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
61.6%
Leon Allen run for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 21Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+3
62.4%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Kylen Towner for a loss of 3 yards Kylen Towner fumbled, recovered by WKent Kylen Towner , return for 3 yds to the WKent 22Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+11
63.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 11 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q3 9:36
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+8
61.9%
Joseph Occhipinti punt for 44 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 8 yds to the Illin 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17FUMBLE RETURN TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:2765% → 50%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
65.2%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo Allison, broken up by Cam ThomasSimilar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-4
64.8%
Donovonn Young run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+5
63.0%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, sideline interference (5 Yards) to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-5
63.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Simon Cvijanovic) to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+16
63.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 16 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
67.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 9 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+13
68.2%
Donovonn Young run for 13 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
68.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 4 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+6
68.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 6 yds to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
68.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 6 yds to the WKent 19Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+10
68.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 10 yds to the WKent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-95
50.2%
Wonderful Terry 95 Yd Fumble Return (Garrett Schwettman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
42.9%
Josh Ferguson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 11Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+13
42.5%
Wes Lunt pass intercepted Prince Charles Iworah return for 20 yds to the Illin 31 ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (Joe Spencer) to the Illin 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0965% → 71%
Q3 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
35.1%
Leon Allen run for 2 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
35.1%
Leon Allen run for 3 yds to the Illin 2Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
36.8%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Jared Dangerfield, broken up by Eric FinneySimilar
Q3 2:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
29.2%
Garrett Schwettman 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 4:3335% → 61%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
34.6%
Donovonn Young run for 2 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+11
34.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Martize Barr for 11 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.0%
Donovonn Young run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
33.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 8 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
35.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 5 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
36.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Geronimo AllisonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
35.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 11 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-11
38.7%
Wes Lunt sacked by Bryan Shorter for a loss of 11 yards to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 21
OWN 38
+62
61.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 62 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21INT TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:1241% → 23%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
58.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Nicholas Norris for 11 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
56.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 20 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
53.4%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Willie McNealSimilar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
53.6%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Leon Allen for 6 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+8
53.9%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Tyler Higbee for 8 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
51.6%
Leon Allen run for no gain to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+77
77.2%
Brandon Doughty pass intercepted for a TD Taylor Barton return for 77 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
82.8%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Willie McNeal for 11 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
81.4%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Nicholas NorrisSimilar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
81.8%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Nicholas NorrisSimilar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
83.6%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Joel GermanSimilar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+14
84.3%
Joseph Occhipinti punt for 41 yds , V'Angelo Bentley returns for 14 yds to the Illin 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23MISSED FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 4:3186% → 92%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
86.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Martize Barr for 20 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
87.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 11 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
87.8%
Jon Davis run for 2 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-5
87.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Michael Heitz) to the WKent 35Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+13
87.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Geronimo Allison for 13 yds to the WKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-14
87.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, illegal helmet contact (Michael Heitz) to the WKent 36Similar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 24
OPP 36
+5
87.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Matt LaCosse for 5 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 19
OPP 31
+4
87.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Mike Dudek for 4 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 15
OPP 27
-5
92.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Simon Cvijanovic) to the WKent 32Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 20
OPP 32
+15
92.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 15 yds to the WKent 17Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
92.4%
Taylor Zalewski 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
89.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Taywan Taylor for 6 yds to the WKent 26Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
88.2%
Leon Allen run for 5 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
88.1%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Antwane GrantSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
89.3%
Brandon Doughty sacked by Jihad Ward and Dawuane Smoot for a loss of 9 yards to the WKent 21 Brandon Doughty fumbled, recovered by Illin V'Angelo Bentley , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the WKent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25TD
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:1994% → 99%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
94.2%
Donovonn Young run for 7 yds to the WKent 14Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+5
94.2%
Donovonn Young run for 5 yds to the WKent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
94.2%
Donovonn Young run for 1 yd to the WKent 8Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
94.2%
Donovonn Young run for 7 yds to the WKent 1Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.5%
Donovonn Young run for 1 yd for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 26TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:173% → 15%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
97.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Mitchell Henry for 20 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
97.4%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Leon Allen, broken up by Jarrod ClementsSimilar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+17
97.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 17 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
97.1%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 7 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 3
OPP 31
0
96.6%
Brandon Doughty pass incomplete to Jared DangerfieldSimilar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+17
96.8%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Leon Allen for 17 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
85.5%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Antwane Grant for 14 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0497% → 97%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 11
50
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:15
Brandon Doughty pass intercepted for a TD Taylor Barton return for 77 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)
+25.7
TD · Q4 12:27
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 62 yds for a TD, (Taylor Zalewski KICK)
+22.5
TD · Q3 4:09
Wonderful Terry 95 Yd Fumble Return (Garrett Schwettman Kick)
-18.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com