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TOL

Toledo 21 at Western Kentucky 26

WKU
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDSAFETYTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+29.6WKU 86.1%Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds for a TD(Lucas Carneiro KICK)AWAY 21 - HOME 26 · Q4 5:16
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:16 · Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Home team on offense+17.1Pregame prior−0.7Garbage-time factor+10.0Score differential+1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:30: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 14 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +9.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:53: Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 44 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +12.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:13: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +13.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:43: Caden Veltkamp run for 7 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +26.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 5:16: Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +29.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 5:18TOL 4th & 5 at WKU 20, tied
    Close callWent for it · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:51WKU 4th & 11 at WKU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:17WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 26, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:50TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:25WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:47TOL 4th & 1 at WKU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    61.4%−1.7
    75% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−6.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:19TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:19TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:02WKU 4th & 9 at TOL 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−9.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:27WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 43, down 11
    Close callPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:35TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 28, up 11
    Close callPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:53WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:29WKU 4th & 7 at TOL 49, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:30TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 9, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−2.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:41TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 28, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−2.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:52WKU 4th & 8 at TOL 37, down 2
    Close callWent for it · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.9%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    45.9%
    40% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−3.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:53TOL 4th & 15 at WKU 20, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−4.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 13:18TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:30TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:53WKU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:13TOL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:43WKU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:16WKU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1INT
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:2041% → 43%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 7 yds to the WKU 32Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
41.5%
(14:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden pass incomplete deep right to Johnson,Kisean thrown to Toledo40 PENALTY Toledo Offside (Holt,Deshawn) 5 yards from WKU32 to WKU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
41.6%
Caden Veltkamp run for 5 yds to the WKU 42Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
41.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 5 yds to the WKU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
42.1%
Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the TOL 49Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
42.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+8
42.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Elijah Young for 8 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
42.7%
Caden Veltkamp run for 2 yds to the TOL 39Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
42.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass intercepted Maxen Hook return for no gain to the TOL 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2DOWNS
13 plays · 63 yds · 6:0358% → 56%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
42.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the TOL 24Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+5
42.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the TOL 29Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+33
42.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 33 yds to the WKU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
42.4%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the WKU 35Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
42.2%
Tucker Gleason run for 6 yds to the WKU 29Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+4
42.4%
Willie Shaw III run for 4 yds to the WKU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
42.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the WKU 25Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-7
42.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 3 yds to the WKU 22 Toledo Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WKU 32Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 17
OPP 32
+3
43.0%
Tucker Gleason run for 3 yds to the WKU 29Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+4
43.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 4 yds to the WKU 25Similar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+5
44.0%
(05:28) Cunanan,Dylan field goal attempt from 42 yards NO GOOD (H: Duran,Emilio, LS: Roe,James), clock 05:28 PENALTY WKU Running Into The Kicker 5 yards from WKU25 to WKU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+4
43.8%
Tucker Gleason run for 4 yds to the WKU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4745% → 44%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
44.7%
George Hart III run for 2 yds to the WKU 14 George Hart III fumbled, recovered by WKU Easton Messer , return for 3 yds to the WKU 14Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 12
OWN 14
0
44.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 12
OWN 14
+1
44.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 1 yd to the WKU 15Similar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 11
OWN 15
0
44.2%
Cole Maynard punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TOL 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
13 plays · 63 yds · 5:2656% → 62%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
44.3%
Connor Walendzak run for 6 yds to the TOL 43Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-10
43.8%
(03:14) No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker rush left for 5 yards gain to the Toledo48, out of bounds at Toledo48 PENALTY Toledo Holding (Gales,Stephen) 10 yards from Toledo43 to Toledo33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+7
45.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 7 yds to the TOL 40Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+12
44.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 12 yds to the WKU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
43.4%
Connor Walendzak run for 3 yds to the WKU 45Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+10
43.6%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker pass incomplete short middle to Stephens,Larry thrown to WKU30 PENALTY WKU Holding (Stout,Upton) 10 yards from WKU45 to WKU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
43.2%
Sevaughn Clark run for 8 yds to the WKU 27Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+1
43.2%
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd to the WKU 26Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+9
43.7%
Connor Walendzak run for 9 yds to the WKU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
43.3%
Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd to the WKU 16Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+14
43.4%
(13:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker pass intercepted by Mathews,Devonte' at WKU00 PENALTY WKU Pass Interference (Johnson Jr.,Anthony) 14 yards from WKU16 to WKU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
43.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 1 yd to the WKU 1Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.7%
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4540% → 39%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
39.9%
Elijah Young run for 6 yds to the WKU 23Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+3
40.2%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the WKU 26Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 1
OWN 26
0
39.7%
Caden Veltkamp run for no gain to the WKU 26Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
39.3%
Cole Maynard punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2161% → 60%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
39.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the TOL 22Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+15
39.5%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker sacked for loss of 4 yards to the Toledo18 (Matthews,Chandler) PENALTY WKU Face Mask (Matthews,Chandler) 15 yards from Toledo22 to Toledo37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
38.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
38.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
38.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:50
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
39.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 46 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:1139% → 37%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
39.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 11 yds to the WKU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
39.5%
Caden Veltkamp sacked by Jeremiah Peters for a loss of 1 yard to the WKU 29 Caden Veltkamp fumbled, recovered by WKU Rodney Newsom Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+1
39.4%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the WKU 28Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+1
37.4%
L.T. Sanders run for 1 yd to the WKU 29Similar
Q2 7:25
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+43
36.9%
Cole Maynard punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKU 43 , Bryson Hammer returns for 43 yds to the WKU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:3465% → 78%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
35.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 4 yds to the WKU 39Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
35.0%
Connor Walendzak run for 5 yds to the WKU 34Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+5
35.0%
Connor Walendzak run for 5 yds to the WKU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
34.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
34.5%
Sevaughn Clark run for 3 yds to the WKU 26Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+6
34.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 6 yds to the WKU 20Similar
Q2 3:47
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+3
34.4%
Connor Walendzak run for 3 yds to the WKU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
31.8%
Connor Walendzak run for 3 yds to the WKU 14Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
22.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 14 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 63 yds · 0:1028% → 40%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
27.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Bryce Childress for 19 yds to the TOL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
40.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 44 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:2366% → 64%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
33.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
34.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the TOL 26Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
34.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 7
OWN 26
+10
35.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKU 35 , K.D. Hutchinson returns for 10 yds to the WKU 36 Western Kentucky Penalty, Illegal Block (Dave Herard) to the WKU 35Similar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 7
OWN 26
+10
35.6%
Emilio Duran punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKU 20 , K.D. Hutchinson returns for 10 yds to the WKU 36 Western Kentucky Penalty, Illegal Block (Dave Herard) to the WKU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:0936% → 35%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
35.9%
Elijah Young run for no gain to the WKU 20Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
35.8%
PENALTY WKU False Start (Taylor,Travon) 5 yards from WKU20 to WKU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+3
34.7%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the WKU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.3%
Tucker Gleason run for 3 yds to the TOL 22 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by WKU Anthony BrackenridgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4040% → 43%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
40.0%
Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds to the TOL 19Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+1
40.0%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the TOL 18Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 6
OPP 18
-3
38.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to George Hart III for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 21Similar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+39
43.4%
Lucas Carneiro 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:2759% → 77%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
40.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the TOL 20Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
41.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+34
42.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 34 yds to the WKU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
38.1%
Willie Shaw III run for 2 yds to the WKU 44Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
38.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+26
38.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 26 yds to the WKU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
36.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the WKU 18Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
36.8%
Tucker Gleason run for no gain to the WKU 18Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+10
38.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 10 yds to the WKU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
36.4%
Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the WKU 7Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
36.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
23.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:3425% → 25%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.4%
Caden Veltkamp run for 4 yds to the WKU 29Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
25.8%
Elijah Young run for 7 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
26.1%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the WKU 38Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
26.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 5 yds to the WKU 43Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
26.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
24.9%
Cole Maynard punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:0775% → 76%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
24.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the TOL 24Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
24.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the TOL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
24.0%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Kylan Guidry for 0 yards to the TOL 29 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by WKU Darius Thomas , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0629% → 29%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
28.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
28.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1976% → 76%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
23.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 2 yds to the TOL 22Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
23.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+6
24.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 6 yds to the TOL 28Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
24.3%
Emilio Duran punt for 37 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:3323% → 20%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
23.2%
Elijah Young run for 8 yds to the WKU 43Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
24.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 1 yd to the WKU 44Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
23.9%
Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds to the WKU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
23.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Elijah Young for a loss of 1 yard to the WKU 46Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+1
22.6%
George Hart III run for 1 yd to the WKU 47Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
21.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
20.2%
Cole Maynard punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20SF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
24.3%
Devon Lynch SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:5725% → 25%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
24.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 16 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
25.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for no gain to the WKU 30Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+18
24.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to River Helms for 18 yds to the WKU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
27.2%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the TOL 49Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
28.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
26.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
24.5%
punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5276% → 76%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
24.3%
Connor Walendzak run for 5 yds to the TOL 13Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+2
23.9%
Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds to the TOL 11Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 7
OWN 11
-5
24.8%
PENALTY Toledo False Start (Gales,Stephen) 5 yards from Toledo11 to Toledo06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 12
OWN 6
+3
25.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 3 yds to the TOL 9Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
24.2%
Emilio Duran punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TOL 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 0:3426% → 54%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+39
26.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 49 yds for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, Illegal Block (Moussa Barry) to the TOL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
28.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 11 yds to the TOL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
54.3%
Caden Veltkamp run for 7 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5760% → 57%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
40.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.0%
Tucker Gleason run for 3 yds to the TOL 28Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
43.4%
Emilio Duran punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:1748% → 84%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
48.4%
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden rush right for 5 yards gain to the WKU40, out of bounds at WKU40 PENALTY WKU Tripping (Young,Elijah) 15 yards from WKU35 to WKU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 25
OWN 20
+17
47.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 17 yds to the WKU 37 Toledo Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
49.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to River Helms for 9 yds to the WKU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
52.9%
(08:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden pass incomplete deep right to Johnson,Kisean thrown to Toledo17 PENALTY Toledo Pass Interference (Smith,Avery) 15 yards from WKU46 to Toledo39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
54.2%
PENALTY WKU False Start (Johnson,Kisean) 5 yards from Toledo39 to Toledo44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+1
50.9%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the TOL 45Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+8
50.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Demick Starling for 8 yds Demick Starling fumbled, recovered by WKU River HelmsSimilar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
52.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+25
48.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Elijah Young for 25 yds to the TOL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
56.2%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the TOL 13Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+10
56.4%
George Hart III run for 10 yds to the TOL 3Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
86.1%
Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
84.1%
PENALTY WKU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Newsom Jr.,Rodney) 15 yards from WKU35 to WKU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26INT
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:0428% → 24%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
71.8%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the TOL 38Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
69.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the TOL 38Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+7
72.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 7 yds to the TOL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
70.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 5
50
+35
67.9%
Tucker Gleason run for 35 yds to the WKU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
64.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 6 yds to the WKU 9Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+4
64.7%
Willie Shaw III run for 4 yds to the WKU 13Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 8
OPP 13
-7
66.7%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Kent Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the WKU 20Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 15
OPP 20
0
76.5%
Tucker Gleason pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 27FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
94.1%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the WKU 19 Caden Veltkamp fumbled, recovered by TOL Maxen HookSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28INT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1937% → 23%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
63.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 12 yds to the WKU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
63.6%
Tucker Gleason run for 3 yds to the WKU 4Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
74.4%
PENALTY Toledo False Start (Fouty,Carter) 5 yards from WKU04 to WKU09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
73.4%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker pass incomplete short middle to Newton,Jerjuan thrown to WKU05 broken up by Johnson Jr.,Anthony PENALTY Toledo Holding (Gales,Stephen) 10 yards from WKU09 to WKU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
0
76.7%
Tucker Gleason pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 29END OF GAME
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0896% → 96%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
95.9%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the WKU 2Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
95.8%
Caden Veltkamp run for no gain to the WKU 2Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 2
-1
95.8%
C. Veltkamp takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:16
Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
+29.6
TD · Q4 10:43
Caden Veltkamp run for 7 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
+26.1
TD · Q3 8:13
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
-13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com