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WKU

Western Kentucky 31 at Sam Houston 14

SHSU
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 16, 2024 · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
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Win probability · SHSU
modelSHSU aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playSHSU scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:56 · Cole Maynard punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SHSU 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Home team on offense−1.5Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.5Pregame prior+3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:50: Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 37 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK) — SHSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:59: Elijah Young 11 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick) — WKU win probability +11.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 15:00: Jase Bauer pass incomplete for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Upton Stout) to the WKU 18 for a 1ST down — SHSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 11:45: K.D. Hutchinson 74 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick) — WKU win probability +21.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:31: Caden Veltkamp 19 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick) — WKU win probability +8.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SHSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:18SHSU 4th & 6 at SHSU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:56WKU 4th & 12 at WKU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:43SHSU 4th & 14 at WKU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    51.9%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:53WKU 4th & 16 at WKU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:41WKU 4th & 13 at SHSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:57SHSU 4th & 3 at SHSU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:26SHSU 4th & 5 at WKU 31, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.0%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:05WKU 4th & 15 at SHSU 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−3.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    51.1%−2.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:46SHSU 4th & 7 at SHSU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−1.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:22WKU 4th & 11 at WKU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−2.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:05SHSU 4th & 7 at WKU 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−1.9
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−13.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:08SHSU 4th & 7 at WKU 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:10WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 41, up 17
    Close callPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:10SHSU 4th & 5 at SHSU 19, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SHSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:20WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:50SHSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:46SHSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:59WKU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:45WKU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:31WKU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:4046% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
54.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 10 yds to the WKU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
54.2%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the WKU 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+22
54.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Elijah Young for 22 yds to the SHSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
54.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
54.2%
Elijah Young run for 5 yds to the SHSU 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+8
54.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 8 yds to the SHSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
53.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to River Helms for 17 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0253% → 53%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.4%
Hunter Watson run for 4 yds to the SHSU 29Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
53.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Elijah Sohn for 8 yds to the SHSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
53.5%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the SHSU 37Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
53.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 4 yds to the SHSU 41Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
53.5%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
52.7%
Jadon Cardell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:2247% → 48%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
52.7%
Easton Messer run for 6 yds to the WKU 32Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+5
52.5%
Elijah Young run for 5 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-8
52.5%
Caden Veltkamp sacked by Kendrick DuJour for a loss of 8 yards to the WKU 29Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 18
OWN 29
+6
52.8%
Elijah Young run for 6 yds to the WKU 35Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
52.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
52.2%
Cole Maynard punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SHSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:1353% → 51%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
52.7%
DJ McKinney run for 4 yds to the WKU 48Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+11
52.9%
Simeon Evans run for 11 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
52.9%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
52.9%
DJ McKinney run for 4 yds to the WKU 33Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-15
52.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Watson,Hunter pass incomplete deep left to Evans,Simeon thrown to WKU10 PENALTY SHSU Pass Interference (Phoenix II,Michael) 15 yards from WKU33 to WKU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 21
OPP 48
+7
52.2%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 7 yds to the WKU 41Similar
Q1 5:43
4TH & 14
OPP 41
0
51.0%
Jadon Cardell punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:5049% → 50%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
51.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 10 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
50.9%
George Hart III run for 6 yds to the WKU 36Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+18
50.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to George Hart III for 3 yds to the SHSU 39 for a 1ST down Sam Houston Penalty, (15 Yards) to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
50.2%
Michael Mathison run for 5 yds to the WKU 49Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+1
50.7%
George Hart III run for 1 yd to the WKU 48Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 16
OWN 48
0
51.0%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 16
OWN 48
0
50.4%
Cole Maynard punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:0351% → 57%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
50.6%
Hunter Watson run for 15 yds to the SHSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
51.0%
Qua'Vez Humphreys run for 7 yds to the SHSU 45Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+4
51.7%
Hunter Watson run for 4 yds to the SHSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
51.7%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the WKU 47Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+7
52.0%
Hunter Watson run for 7 yds to the WKU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
52.1%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
50.9%
DJ McKinney run for 3 yds to the WKU 37Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+37
57.0%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 37 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7FG
12 plays · 32 yds · 4:0946% → 47%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
54.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden pass incomplete deep right to Messer,Easton thrown to SHSU33 PENALTY SHSU Face Mask (Armstead,Da'Veawn) 15 yards from WKU35 to WKU50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
50
+7
53.0%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 7 yds to the SHSU 43Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
52.9%
Elijah Young run for no gain to the SHSU 43Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+3
53.3%
Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds to the SHSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
53.0%
Elijah Young run for 7 yds to the SHSU 33Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+2
52.5%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the SHSU 31Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+1
53.0%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the SHSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-6
52.6%
Caden Veltkamp sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the SHSU 36Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 16
OPP 36
+3
53.6%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the SHSU 33Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 13
OPP 33
0
54.0%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:41
4TH & 13
OPP 33
+51
53.4%
Lucas Carneiro 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:4753% → 59%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
53.1%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Elijah Sohn for 22 yds to the SHSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
55.0%
Ife Adeyi run for 4 yds to the WKU 47Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-3
55.4%
Hunter Watson sacked by Kylan Guidry for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 9
50
+50
59.2%
Michael Phoenix II 50 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:4742% → 53%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 6 yds to the WKU 31Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
57.6%
PENALTY WKU False Start 5 yards from WKU31 to WKU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
58.5%
Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the WKU 30Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+28
58.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Elijah Young for 28 yds to the SHSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
56.1%
Elijah Young run for 7 yds to the SHSU 35Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+2
55.2%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the SHSU 33Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+1
58.9%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the SHSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
57.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 8 yds to the SHSU 24Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
57.8%
Elijah Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
58.9%
Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds to the SHSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
57.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
57.9%
Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds to the SHSU 18Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+7
58.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 7 yds to the SHSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
47.3%
Elijah Young 11 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 2:0252% → 49%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
51.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Watson,Hunter pass complete short right to Humphreys,Qua'Vez caught at SHSU25, for 6 yards to the SHSU31 (Swanson,Keyshawn), out of bounds PENALTY SHSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from SHSU25 to SHSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
51.5%
DJ McKinney run for 2 yds to the SHSU 22Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
49.0%
Hunter Watson run for 6 yds to the SHSU 28Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
49.4%
Hunter Watson run for 4 yds to the SHSU 32Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+5
48.5%
Jadon Cardell punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKU 25 , K.D. Hutchinson returns for 5 yds to the WKU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 57 yds · 0:5751% → 53%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kisean Johnson for 3 yds to the WKU 28Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
48.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
49.6%
Caden Veltkamp run for 8 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
47.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to George Hart III for 2 yds to the WKU 38Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+8
47.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 8 yds to the WKU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
46.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+36
46.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Michael Mathison for 36 yds to the SHSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:3450% → 51%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
50.3%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Simeon Evans for 10 yds to the SHSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
50.7%
Simeon Evans pass complete to Jase Bauer for 1 yd to the SHSU 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+17
50.9%
Jase Bauer run for 17 yds to the WKU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
53.9%
Jase Bauer run for 3 yds to the WKU 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
53.9%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the WKU 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
53.5%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
54.0%
Jase Bauer run for no gain to the WKU 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
53.9%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+5
52.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to DJ McKinney for 5 yds to the WKU 31Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+47
50.5%
Christian Pavon 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:2153% → 52%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
47.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 10 yds to the WKU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
45.8%
Elijah Young run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 1
50
+9
44.7%
Elijah Young run for 9 yds to the SHSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
45.1%
Caden Veltkamp sacked by Richard Outland Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the SHSU 44Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+6
45.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to River Helms for 6 yds to the SHSU 38Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-3
45.6%
Caden Veltkamp sacked by Seth Mason for a loss of 3 yards to the SHSU 41Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 10
OPP 41
-5
48.4%
PENALTY WKU Delay Of Game 5 yards from SHSU41 to SHSU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
47.6%
Cole Maynard punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ife Adeyi at the SHSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:1948% → 45%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
47.5%
DJ McKinney run for 7 yds to the SHSU 16Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+9
48.1%
DJ McKinney run for 9 yds to the SHSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.3%
DJ McKinney run for 3 yds to the SHSU 28Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
48.6%
Ife Adeyi run for 3 yds to the SHSU 31Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-3
47.6%
Jase Bauer sacked by Sebastian Benjamin for a loss of 3 yards to the SHSU 28Similar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+4
44.7%
Jadon Cardell punt for 47 yds , K.D. Hutchinson returns for 4 yds to the WKU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:2456% → 54%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
43.9%
Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the WKU 33Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+5
42.9%
Caden Veltkamp run for 5 yds to the WKU 38Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
41.9%
Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds to the WKU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
41.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden pass complete short left to Messer,Easton caught at WKU35, for 3 yards to the WKU44 (Jimmerson,Jaylon) PENALTY WKU Holding (Taylor,Travon) 10 yards from WKU41 to WKU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+4
44.3%
Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the WKU 35Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 16
OWN 35
0
44.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+5
46.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to River Helms for 5 yds to the WKU 40Similar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
45.7%
Cole Maynard punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 16MISSED FG
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:5548% → 49%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+31
47.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jay Ducker for 31 yds to the WKU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
54.6%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Upton Stout) to the WKU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
54.5%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the WKU 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
54.5%
Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the WKU 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+1
51.8%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd to the WKU 15Similar
Q4 13:05
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
48.6%
Christian Pavon 32 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Hosea WheelerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:2057% → 79%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
42.8%
Elijah Young run for 1 yd to the WKU 21Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
43.1%
Elijah Young run for 5 yds to the WKU 26Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+74
21.4%
K.D. Hutchinson 74 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2721% → 18%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
20.6%
DJ McKinney run for 6 yds to the SHSU 26Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
21.2%
Jase Bauer run for 3 yds to the SHSU 29Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
20.5%
DJ McKinney run for 3 yds to the SHSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
17.5%
Jase Bauer run for 8 yds to the SHSU 24 Jase Bauer fumbled, recovered by WKU Zach EdwardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:4386% → 94%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
14.4%
Elijah Young run for 5 yds to the SHSU 19Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
14.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+19
5.8%
Caden Veltkamp 19 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:176% → 6%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
6.4%
Jase Bauer run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
50
+6
7.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Michael Phoenix II for 6 yds to the WKU 44Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-5
7.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bauer,Jase pass incomplete short right to McKinney,DJ thrown to WKU35 PENALTY SHSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Larson,Rhett) 5 yards from WKU44 to WKU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+8
7.1%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Simeon Evans for 8 yds to the WKU 41Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+4
7.7%
DJ McKinney run for 4 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
7.3%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
7.2%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jay Ducker for 3 yds to the WKU 34Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
7.4%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:08
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
6.2%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5895% → 96%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
5.2%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the WKU 37Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
5.0%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the WKU 40Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+1
4.1%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the WKU 41Similar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
4.1%
Cole Maynard punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ife Adeyi at the SHSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 22INT
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:534% → 3%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
4.2%
Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the SHSU 19Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
4.2%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
4.1%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 5
OWN 19
+10
4.1%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 10 yds to the SHSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
4.2%
Jase Bauer run for 14 yds to the SHSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
4.6%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Simeon Evans for no gain to the SHSU 43Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
4.4%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+12
4.3%
Jase Bauer pass complete to DJ McKinney for 12 yds to the WKU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
4.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jyzaiah Rockwell for 18 yds to the WKU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
5.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jyzaiah Rockwell for no gain to the WKU 27Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
2.8%
Jase Bauer pass intercepted Upton Stout return for no gain to the WKU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23FUMBLE
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:1498% → 99%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
2.2%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the WKU 46Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
1.6%
Elijah Young run for 5 yds to the SHSU 49Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+3
1.2%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the SHSU 46 Elijah Young fumbled, recovered by WKU Caleb WeaverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 0 yds · 1:031% → 1%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
0.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jyzaiah Rockwell for 3 yds to the SHSU 49Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
0.9%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-3
0.9%
Jase Bauer sacked by Zach Edwards for a loss of 3 yards to the SHSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:45
K.D. Hutchinson 74 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)
-21.7
TD · Q2 2:59
Elijah Young 11 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Lucas Carneiro Kick)
-11.6
TD · Q4 9:31
Caden Veltkamp 19 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)
-8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com