Iowa State

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1663rd
  Defense+0.1050th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense40.4%26th
  Defense42.6%40th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3995th
  Defense+1.3036th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0949th
  Defense+0.1620th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2468th
  Defense+0.0580th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense42.9%10th
  Defense47.8%44th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.8%80th
  Defense31.6%37th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8325th
  Defense3.0543rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense21.4%14th
  Defense19.4%68th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.8%70th
  Defense15.9%47th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Iowa State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   UND
2. W
   IOWA
3. W
   ARST
4. W
   HOU
5. W
   BAY
6. W
   WVU
7. W
   UCF
8. L
   TTU
9. L
   KU
10. W
    CIN
11. W
    UTAH
12. W
    KSU
13. L
    ASU
14. W
    MIA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Iowa State.

Players, 2024

1. Rocco BechtQB491 plays · +0.224 pts/play · 24th of 232 QBs
   2.06WAR1.17 to 2.90
2. Carson HansenRB137 plays · +0.146 pts/play · 54th of 373 RBs
   0.38WAR0.28 to 0.48
3. Jayden HigginsWR81 plays · +0.167 pts/play · 18th of 452 WRs
   0.25WAR0.06 to 0.46
4. Abu Sama IIIRB111 plays · +0.092 pts/play · 156th of 373 RBs
   0.19WAR0.10 to 0.28
5. Jaylon JacksonRB75 plays · +0.106 pts/play · 195th of 373 RBs
   0.15WAR0.10 to 0.20
6. Kyle KonrardyPK23 plays · +0.281 pts/play · 13th of 114 kickers
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.18
7. Jaylin NoelWR82 plays · +0.054 pts/play · 173rd of 452 WRs
   0.08WAR−0.13 to 0.31
8. Gabe BurkleTE26 plays · +0.080 pts/play · 87th of 221 TEs
   0.04WAR−0.03 to 0.10

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Iowa State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  64264268th of 131Roster talent: 642, 68th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  19419444th of 131Recruiting: 194, 44th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  90%90%2nd of 130Returning production: 90%, 2nd of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +10.3+10.328th of 131SP+ rating: +10.3, 28th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Iowa State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.13 of the 0.18 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs KSUQ4 6:16 4th & 2 at KSU 2, up 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it3.4 pts
2. vs TTUQ4 12:23 4th & 3 at TTU 3, down 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it2.7 pts
3. vs KUQ2 0:00 4th & 1 at KU 20, down 21Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it2.0 pts
4. at IOWAQ3 0:04 4th & 3 at IOWA 49, down 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it1.7 pts
5. vs CINQ3 5:19 4th & 9 at ISU 42, up 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting1.6 pts
6. at IOWAQ4 6:48 4th & 3 at ISU 36, down 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it1.3 pts
7. vs UCFQ2 3:50 4th & 1 at ISU 24, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.8 pts
8. vs KUQ2 7:06 4th & 4 at KU 4, down 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

28th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Iowa State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   UND
2. W

   IOWA
3. W

   ARST
4. W

   HOU
5. W

   BAY
6. W

   WVU
7. W

   UCF
8. L

   TTU
9. L

   KU
10. W

    CIN
11. W

    UTAH
12. W

    KSU
13. L

    ASU
14. W

    MIA

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Iowa State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.91
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock+0.11
• Timeouts−0.12
• Other−0.04
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.97

Game by game

• UNDW 21-3 vs UND96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +6
• IOWAW 20-19 at IOWA42% → 83%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +41: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +5
• ARSTW 52-7 vs ARST90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +12
• HOUW 20-0 at HOU86% → 99%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +22, Clock +1
• BAYW 43-21 vs BAY82% → 100%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +22
• WVUW 28-16 at WVU57% → 99%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +46, Clock +2
• UCFW 38-35 vs UCF83% → 90%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +29, Timeouts −8
• TTUL 22-23 vs TTU83% → 13%Before kickoff +33 · On the field −70: Scoreboard −36, Timeouts −8
• KUL 36-45 vs KU58% → 4%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −43, Timeouts +1
• CINW 34-17 vs CIN73% → 100%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +2
• UTAHW 31-28 at UTAH70% → 95%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +38, Clock +2
• KSUW 29-21 vs KSU61% → 98%Before kickoff +11 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts −3
• ASUL 19-45 vs ASU54% → 0%Before kickoff +4 · On the field −54: Scoreboard −48, Timeouts −1
• MIAW 42-41 vs MIA34% → 83%Before kickoff −16 · On the field +48: Scoreboard +39, Clock +4

Points of win probability, from Iowa State's side.

Closest call

ISU 38-31 OU (2017) - Iowa State dropped to a 3.3% win probability before pulling it out.