Iowa State

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0926th
  Defense+0.286th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.4%33rd
  Defense52.1%2nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2054th
  Defense+1.0987th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0840th
  Defense+0.352nd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1123rd
  Defense+0.2343rd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense44.0%20th
  Defense57.9%1st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense36.1%70th
  Defense37.3%16th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9552nd
  Defense3.512nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.0%43rd
  Defense14.0%6th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.1%45th
  Defense1.2%2nd

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Iowa State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   NDSU
2. L
   KSU
3. W
   IOWA
4. L
   BAY
5. L
   OKST
6. W
   TOL
7. L
   TEX
8. L
   OU
9. L
   KU
10. L
    TTU
11. L
    WVU
12. L
    TCU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Iowa State.

Players, 2014

1. Sam B. RichardsonQB304 plays · +0.246 pts/play · 69th of 199 QBs
   1.40WAR0.93 to 1.85
2. Sam E. Richardson?128 plays · +0.237 pts/play
   0.57WAR0.39 to 0.77
3. Aaron WimberlyRB147 plays · +0.087 pts/play · 92nd of 350 RBs
   0.24WAR0.15 to 0.34
4. Allen LazardWR61 plays · +0.204 pts/play · 47th of 469 WRs
   0.23WAR0.14 to 0.34
5. D'Vario MontgomeryWR41 plays · +0.157 pts/play · 170th of 469 WRs
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.17
6. Colin DowningP52 plays · +0.120 pts/play · 31st of 94 punters
   0.12WAR0.05 to 0.18
7. Devondrick Nealy?65 plays · +0.091 pts/play
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.15
8. Cole NettenPK13 plays · +0.429 pts/play · 60th of 114 kickers
   0.10WAR0.07 to 0.14

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Iowa State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Iowa State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 8 clear-cut ones account for 0.14 of the 0.18 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs TTUQ4 2:38 4th & 7 at TTU 36, down 3Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−3.3 pts
2. at TEXQ3 0:19 4th & 3 at TEX 3, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
3. vs KSUQ4 3:08 4th & 4 at ISU 43, up 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
4. vs TTUQ3 4:17 4th & 2 at ISU 45, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
5. vs WVUQ2 1:20 4th & 1 at ISU 46, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
6. vs TTUQ4 5:40 4th & 4 at TTU 24, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
7. vs WVUQ4 12:33 4th & 4 at ISU 40, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
8. vs WVUQ4 2:06 4th & 10 at WVU 17, down 13Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.0 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

113th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Iowa State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   NDSU
2. L

   KSU
3. W

   IOWA
4. L

   BAY
5. L

   OKST
6. W

   TOL
7. L

   TEX
8. L

   OU
9. L

   KU
10. L

    TTU
11. L

    WVU
12. L

    TCU

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Iowa State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.98
• Possession & field position−0.04
• Clock−0.04
• Timeouts−0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.71

Game by game

• NDSUL 14-34 vs NDSU74% → 1%Before kickoff +24 · On the field −74: Scoreboard −65, Clock −2
• KSUL 28-32 vs KSU15% → 5%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −10: Scoreboard −26, Clock −2
• IOWAW 20-17 at IOWA15% → 94%Before kickoff −35 · On the field +79: Scoreboard +54, Clock +4
• BAYL 28-49 vs BAY7% → 0%Before kickoff −43 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −12, Clock −1
• OKSTL 20-37 at OKST13% → 1%Before kickoff −37 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −18
• TOLW 37-30 vs TOL70% → 97%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +2
• TEXL 45-48 at TEX21% → 11%Before kickoff −29 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −18, Possession & field position −2
• OUL 14-59 vs OU13% → 0%Before kickoff −37 · On the field −13: Scoreboard −19
• KUL 14-34 at KU60% → 0%Before kickoff +10 · On the field −60: Scoreboard −50, Timeouts −1
• TTUL 31-34 vs TTU55% → 18%Before kickoff +5 · On the field −38: Scoreboard −42, Clock −2
• WVUL 24-37 vs WVU19% → 2%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −28, Clock −1
• TCUL 3-55 at TCU3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −5

Points of win probability, from Iowa State's side.

Closest call

ISU 38-31 OU (2017) - Iowa State dropped to a 3.3% win probability before pulling it out.