Iowa State

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2271st
  Defense+0.1168th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.6%60th
  Defense39.8%73rd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2646th
  Defense+1.3036th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1040th
  Defense+0.0473rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3479th
  Defense+0.1961st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.7%71st
  Defense44.4%83rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense30.5%45th
  Defense29.5%58th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9938th
  Defense2.9855th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.2%16th
  Defense18.6%64th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.7%86th
  Defense18.1%76th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Iowa State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   UNI
2. L
   IOWA
3. W
   UNLV
4. L
   BAY
5. W
   KU
6. W
   KSU
7. W
   OKST
8. L
   WVU
9. W
   TEX
10. L
    TTU
11. L
    OU
12. W
    TCU
13. L
    CLEM

Bars above the line: better than expected for Iowa State.

Players, 2021

1. Brock PurdyQB385 plays · +0.252 pts/play · 43rd of 219 QBs
   1.82WAR1.14 to 2.42
2. Breece HallRB196 plays · +0.210 pts/play · 25th of 387 RBs
   0.77WAR0.59 to 0.96
3. Xavier HutchinsonWR65 plays · +0.155 pts/play · 77th of 474 WRs
   0.19WAR0.12 to 0.27
4. Andrew MevisPK16 plays · +0.293 pts/play · 41st of 128 kickers
   0.09WAR0.05 to 0.13
5. Jaylin NoelWR36 plays · +0.126 pts/play · 273rd of 474 WRs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.12
6. Charlie KolarTE61 plays · +0.065 pts/play · 3rd of 234 TEs
   0.07WAR−0.03 to 0.17
7. Tarique MiltonWR10 plays · +0.162 pts/play · 421st of 474 WRs
   0.03WAR0.02 to 0.04
8. Sean Shaw Jr.WR8 plays · +0.149 pts/play · 426th of 474 WRs
   0.02WAR0.02 to 0.03

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Iowa State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  61461455th of 130Roster talent: 614, 55th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  18618652nd of 130Recruiting: 186, 52nd of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  94%94%15th of 128Returning production: 94%, 15th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +14.3+14.319th of 130SP+ rating: +14.3, 19th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Iowa State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.15 of the 0.20 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at WVUQ4 0:00 4th & 6 at WVU 30, down 7Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−4.6 pts
2. vs OKSTQ4 3:18 4th & 2 at ISU 43, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.9 pts
3. vs UNIQ4 6:18 4th & 4 at UNI 4, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.7 pts
4. at KSUQ4 9:09 4th & 1 at KSU 23, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
5. at KSUQ2 0:00 4th & 1 at KSU 24, up 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
6. vs UNIQ3 7:06 4th & 1 at ISU 44, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
7. at TTUQ3 7:01 4th & 2 at ISU 19, down 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
8. at WVUQ2 2:18 4th & 4 at WVU 48, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

121st of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Iowa State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   UNI
2. L

   IOWA
3. W

   UNLV
4. L

   BAY
5. W

   KU
6. W

   KSU
7. W

   OKST
8. L

   WVU
9. W

   TEX
10. L

    TTU
11. L

    OU
12. W

    TCU
13. L

    CLEM

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Iowa State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.22
• Clock−0.03
• Timeouts+0.03
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.19

Game by game

• UNIW 16-10 vs UNI97% → 90%Before kickoff +47 · On the field −6: Scoreboard +9, Timeouts +1
• IOWAL 17-27 vs IOWA61% → 2%Before kickoff +11 · On the field −59: Scoreboard −57, Clock −3
• UNLVW 48-3 at UNLV98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +5
• BAYL 29-31 at BAY70% → 5%Before kickoff +20 · On the field −65: Scoreboard −40, Timeouts −3
• KUW 59-7 vs KU98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +3
• KSUW 33-20 at KSU69% → 97%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +41, Possession & field position −2
• OKSTW 24-21 vs OKST72% → 96%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +28, Timeouts +1
• WVUL 31-38 at WVU70% → 10%Before kickoff +20 · On the field −60: Scoreboard −33, Timeouts −1
• TEXW 30-7 vs TEX69% → 100%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +2
• TTUL 38-41 at TTU82% → 4%Before kickoff +32 · On the field −78: Scoreboard −42, Timeouts −1
• OUL 21-28 at OU42% → 9%Before kickoff −8 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −35, Timeouts +3
• TCUW 48-14 vs TCU85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +17
• CLEML 13-20 vs CLEM48% → 4%Before kickoff −2 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −48, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from Iowa State's side.

Closest call

ISU 38-31 OU (2017) - Iowa State dropped to a 3.3% win probability before pulling it out.