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ISU

Iowa State 31 at West Virginia 38

WVU
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:33 · Andrew Mevis punt for 36 yds , Isaiah Esdale returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Pregame prior−12.5Home team on offense+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score differential+0.4Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:07: Jake Hummel 24 Yd Interception Return (Andrew Mevis Kick) — ISU win probability +15.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:36: Bryce Ford-Wheaton 23 Yd pass from Jarret Doege (Casey Legg Kick) — WVU win probability +21.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:06: Brock Purdy 1 Yd Run (Andrew Mevis Kick) — ISU win probability +14.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:49: Winston Wright Jr. 22 Yd pass from Jarret Doege (Casey Legg Kick) — WVU win probability +22.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:25: Leddie Brown 2 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick) — WVU win probability +26.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ISU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:44WVU 4th & 3 at WVU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:31ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:40WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:28ISU 4th & 20 at ISU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:29WVU 4th & 14 at ISU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:33ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:03ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.4%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:18ISU 4th & 4 at WVU 48, down 3
    Close callPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:18WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−1.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:18ISU 4th & 4 at WVU 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−1.6
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−5.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:26ISU 4th & 12 at ISU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−3.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:49WVU 4th & 3 at ISU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    28.6%−0.9
    72% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−11.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:42ISU 4th & 16 at ISU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−7.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:42WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:34ISU 4th & 1 at WVU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%−6.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−6.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:00ISU 4th & 6 at WVU 30, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.6 ptsWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%−4.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−8.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:39ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:05WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:29ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:18WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:07ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:36WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:06ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:49WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:25WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WVUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:1631% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
30.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 10 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
30.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 4 yds to the WVirg 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
30.5%
Leddie Brown run for 4 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-1
30.5%
Leddie Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 42Similar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
31.5%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 83 yds · 1:0569% → 69%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
31.5%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 18Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+12
31.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 12 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
30.8%
Breece Hall 70 Yd Run (Andrew Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3431% → 35%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
30.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 19 yds to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
31.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 8 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
31.3%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+5
31.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 5 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
31.2%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
31.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to T.J. Banks for 8 yds to the IowSt 35Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+14
31.2%
Leddie Brown run for 14 yds to the IowSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
31.3%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+17
31.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to T.J. Banks for 17 yds to the IowSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
31.3%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
31.3%
Leddie Brown run for 2 yds to the IowSt 2Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.6%
Leddie Brown 2 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3466% → 65%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.8%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
33.7%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
34.0%
Brock Purdy run for 6 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
34.7%
Andrew Mevis punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Esdale at the WVirg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5135% → 34%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
34.6%
Leddie Brown run for 3 yds to the WVirg 21Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
34.6%
Garrett Greene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
34.2%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:40
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
34.2%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
30.9%
Tarique Milton 68 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Andrew Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1132% → 39%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.5%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 3 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
31.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 10 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
31.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 5 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
32.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 4 yds to the WVirg 47Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+8
32.3%
Leddie Brown run for 8 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
32.6%
Leddie Brown run for 3 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+10
32.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 10 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
33.0%
Leddie Brown run for 7 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+5
33.0%
BROWN, Leddie rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the ISU22 (LEE, Isaiah). PENALTY ISU Offsides on LEE, Isaiah enforced 5 yards from the ISU25 to the ISU20 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
39.1%
Bryce Ford-Wheaton 20 Yd pass from Jarret Doege (Casey Legg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:3265% → 62%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
35.5%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+5
36.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 5 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
36.4%
Brock Purdy sacked by Josh Chandler-Semedo for 0 yards to the IowSt 30Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 20
OWN 30
+27
38.3%
Corey Dunn punt for 42 yds , Isaiah Esdale returns for 27 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:5940% → 41%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
39.9%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 14 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
40.3%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 3 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
40.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 6 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+12
39.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 12 yds to the IowSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
42.0%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 13Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
-1
41.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 14Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
40.2%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
40.6%
Casey Legg 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5659% → 57%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
40.8%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+5
40.6%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+2
39.6%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
39.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 5 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
39.3%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
39.5%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+36
43.3%
Andrew Mevis punt for 36 yds , Isaiah Esdale returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11INT
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:3044% → 47%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
43.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 14 yds to the WVirg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
44.1%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
43.8%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+13
42.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 13 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
46.9%
Jarret Doege pass intercepted return for no gain to the IowSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4557% → 56%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
43.5%
Brock Purdy run for 9 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
41.5%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
42.0%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
43.1%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
41.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 6 yds to the WVirg 48Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
41.2%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
41.8%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
44.5%
Corey Dunn punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0045% → 44%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
45.2%
Leddie Brown run for 2 yds to the WVirg 7Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+4
44.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 4 yds to the WVirg 11Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 4
OWN 11
0
44.4%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 4
OWN 11
0
44.1%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:0056% → 65%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
43.8%
Xavier Hutchinson run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 2
50
+17
42.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 17 yds to the WVirg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
41.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 10 yds to the WVirg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
41.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 6 yds to the WVirg 17Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
43.4%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+34
38.1%
Andrew Mevis 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
35.2%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3460% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
40.1%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-8
40.5%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 8 yards to the IowSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 26
+6
42.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jirehl Brock for 6 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
43.7%
Andrew Mevis punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Esdale at the WVirg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17INT TD
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:1946% → 30%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
45.7%
Leddie Brown run for 7 yds to the WVirg 38Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+5
48.0%
Leddie Brown run for 5 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-15
47.8%
DOEGE, Jarret pass to the left complete for 46 yards to FORD-WHEATON, Bryce caught at the ISU23 and advanced to the ISU11 (KING, Kym-Mani), out of bounds. PENALTY WVU Pass Interference on FORD-WHEATON, Bryce enforced 15 yards to the WVU28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 25
OWN 28
-5
45.2%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the WVirg 23Similar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 30
OWN 23
-24
29.5%
Jake Hummel 24 Yd Interception Return (Andrew Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:3130% → 52%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
29.7%
Leddie Brown run for 13 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
30.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 3 yds to the WVirg 41Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
31.9%
Garrett Greene run for 1 yd to the WVirg 42Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+35
30.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 35 yds to the IowSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
52.4%
Bryce Ford-Wheaton 23 Yd pass from Jarret Doege (Casey Legg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:2457% → 76%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
42.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 7 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+53
40.8%
Breece Hall run for 53 yds to the WVirg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
38.6%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the WVirg 1Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.6%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the WVirg 1Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.3%
Brock Purdy 1 Yd Run (Andrew Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1730% → 52%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
29.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kaden Prather for 13 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
31.0%
Leddie Brown run for 8 yds to the WVirg 46Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+7
32.9%
Leddie Brown run for 7 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
33.6%
QB Keeper DOEGE, Jarret rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the ISU40 (KING, Kym-Mani). PENALTY WVU Holding on YATES, Brandon enforced 10 yards from the ISU47 to the WVU43 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+9
29.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 9 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+1
31.7%
Leddie Brown run for 1 yd to the IowSt 47Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+11
29.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 11 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
32.6%
Leddie Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 37Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-3
31.9%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 40Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+11
28.9%
DOEGE, Jarret pass up the middle incomplete intended for FORD-WHEATON, Bryce thrown to the ISU30. PENALTY ISU Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Anthony enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the ISU29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
34.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to T.J. Banks for 9 yds to the IowSt 20Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 20
-2
32.0%
Leddie Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
30.3%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+22
52.3%
Winston Wright Jr. 22 Yd pass from Jarret Doege (Casey Legg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:0156% → 51%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
44.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 8 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+3
41.5%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
41.4%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-10
43.8%
PURDY, Brock pass up the middle incomplete intended for WILSON, Darren thrown to the ISU48. PENALTY ISU Holding on SIMMONS, Darrell enforced 10 yards from the ISU45 to the ISU35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 22
OWN 35
+6
46.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 6 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 16
OWN 41
0
46.1%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 16
OWN 41
+44
49.3%
Andrew Mevis punt for 34 yds, downed at the WESTVIR 25 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the WVirg 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:1751% → 85%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
51.2%
Leddie Brown run for 20 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
52.1%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+14
51.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 14 yds to the WVirg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+45
56.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 45 yds to the IowSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
58.6%
Leddie Brown run for no gain to the IowSt 6Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
58.6%
DOEGE, Jarret pass to the right incomplete intended for RYAN, Sean thrown to the ISU0. PENALTY ISU Pass Interference on TAMPA, T.J. enforced at the spot of the foul for 4 yards to the ISU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.2%
Leddie Brown 2 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23FUMBLE
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:0422% → 25%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
78.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 7 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+9
77.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 9 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
77.0%
Breece Hall run for 8 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+8
75.0%
Breece Hall run for 8 yds to the WVirg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+22
78.3%
Brock Purdy run for 22 yds to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
75.6%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the WVirg 25Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+23
76.3%
Brock Purdy run for 23 yds to the WVirg 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.3%
Breece Hall run for 2 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:1591% → 95%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
91.2%
Leddie Brown run for 5 yds to the WVirg 25Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
91.3%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+12
90.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 12 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
91.7%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
91.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 6 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
91.7%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:42
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
94.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 41 yds, downed at the IowSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25DOWNS
16 plays · 54 yds · 3:4213% → 10%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
87.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 9 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+5
85.3%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
86.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 4 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+15
85.3%
PURDY, Brock pass up the middle incomplete intended for NOEL, Jaylin thrown to the WVU20. PENALTY WVU Pass Interference on MATTHEWS, Jackie enforced 15 yards to the ISU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
83.7%
Brock Purdy run for 8 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
82.3%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
86.1%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the WVirg 42Similar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+8
88.0%
Breece Hall run for 8 yds to the WVirg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
84.5%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the WVirg 30Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
84.4%
Brock Purdy sacked for 0 yards to the WVirg 39Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 15
OPP 39
+14
91.7%
Brock Purdy run for 14 yds to the WVirg 25Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 1
OPP 25
-5
88.3%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Trevor Downing) to the WVirg 30Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 30
0
90.3%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:25
Leddie Brown 2 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick)
+26.6
TD · Q4 14:49
Winston Wright Jr. 22 Yd pass from Jarret Doege (Casey Legg Kick)
+22
TD · Q3 8:36
Bryce Ford-Wheaton 23 Yd pass from Jarret Doege (Casey Legg Kick)
+21.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com