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TCU

TCU 14 at Iowa State 48

ISU
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2021 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.9ISU 84.5%Andrew Mevis 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 10:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:33 · Andrew Mevis 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Pregame prior+33.3Home team on offense+0.4Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.1Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:12: Jirehl Brock run for 40 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +6.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 3:35: Breece Hall run for 39 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK) — ISU win probability +5.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:33: Max Duggan pass complete to Blair Conwright for 47 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +4.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:25: Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 22 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +6.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 2:31: Andrew Mevis 32 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +2.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:33ISU 4th & 6 at TCU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:51TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 25, down 3
    Close callPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:29ISU 4th & 8 at TCU 42, up 3
    Close callPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    82.6%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:54TCU 4th & 11 at TCU 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:43TCU 4th & 1 at ISU 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.3%−1.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:27ISU 4th & 16 at ISU 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:39TCU 4th & 18 at TCU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:40TCU 4th & 1 at ISU 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−3.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:31ISU 4th & 8 at TCU 14, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    92.3%−2.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:11TCU 4th & 2 at ISU 12, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    -1.1%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:45TCU 4th & 12 at TCU 23, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:04TCU 4th & 13 at TCU 33, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 13:12ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:35ISU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:33TCU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:25ISU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:56ISU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:54TCU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:53ISU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:48ISU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 4:2785% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
85.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 20 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
85.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 13 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
85.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 4 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+1
85.4%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the TCU 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+8
85.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 8 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
85.4%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the TCU 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+3
85.4%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
85.4%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
84.5%
Andrew Mevis 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3816% → 16%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
84.4%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+1
84.4%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TCU 17Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+8
84.5%
Max Duggan run for 8 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
84.2%
Jordy Sandy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:2284% → 83%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
84.1%
Breece Hall run for 12 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
84.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Darren Wilson Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 44Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+12
84.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 12 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
84.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 2 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
84.4%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
84.3%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
83.4%
Corey Dunn punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
13 plays · 29 yds · 6:3517% → 18%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
83.4%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+1
83.4%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TCU 19Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 6
OWN 19
-36
83.6%
DUGGAN, Max pass to the left complete for 36 yards to BROWN, Quincy caught at the ISU45 and advanced to the ISU45, End of Play. PENALTY TCU Pass Interference on BROWN, Quincy enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards to the TCU9 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 15
OWN 10
+17
83.6%
Emari Demercado run for 17 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
83.2%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
83.1%
Max Duggan sacked by Isaiah Lee for 0 yards to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 14
OWN 23
+22
83.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quincy Brown for 22 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
82.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Andrew Coker for no gain to the TCU 45Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
82.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 11
OWN 44
-5
83.2%
DUGGAN, Max pass to the right complete for 15 yards to HENDERSON, Gunnar caught at the ISU44 and advanced to the ISU41 (HUMMEL, Jake). PENALTY TCU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MCMILLON, Coy enforced 5 yards from the TCU44 to the TCU39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+10
83.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 10 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 6
OWN 49
-5
81.4%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Derius Davis) to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
81.8%
Jordy Sandy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:4282% → 89%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
81.8%
Breece Hall run for 24 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
82.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 3 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
82.7%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+13
82.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 13 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
88.5%
Jirehl Brock run for 40 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6DOWNS
15 plays · 62 yds · 6:2914% → 14%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.7%
Max Duggan run for 7 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-3
85.3%
Derius Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
85.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 11 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
85.3%
Emari Demercado run for no gain to the TCU 40Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+17
85.4%
Max Duggan run for 17 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
84.9%
Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+4
84.8%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
84.5%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 10 yds to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
84.4%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
84.6%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 4 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+5
85.2%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 1
OPP 13
0
85.9%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the IowSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 3:0889% → 95%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+26
89.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 26 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
89.7%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 41Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
89.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 5 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
89.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 5 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
89.9%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
89.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 10 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
95.3%
Breece Hall run for 39 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:029% → 14%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
90.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 15 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
90.6%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
90.7%
Max Duggan run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
50
0
90.0%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
50
+3
90.4%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+47
86.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Blair Conwright for 47 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:5790% → 88%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
89.5%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-6
89.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 16
OWN 37
0
88.4%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 16
OWN 37
+35
88.0%
Andrew Mevis punt for 35 yds TCU Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10END OF HALF
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:2712% → 13%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
88.1%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
88.4%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+10
88.8%
Max Duggan run for 10 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
88.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 11 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
87.5%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:2115% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
84.6%
Jake Neufeld run for 14 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
83.8%
Emari Demercado run for 9 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+6
83.0%
Emari Demercado run for 6 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
83.1%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the IowSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
83.1%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
83.8%
Max Duggan sacked by Will McDonald IV for 0 yards to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 18
OWN 46
0
86.5%
punt blocked by Darien Porter blocked by Darien PorterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:1487% → 94%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
87.2%
Breece Hall run for 16 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
87.3%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the TCU 22Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
94.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 22 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:378% → 9%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+26
91.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 26 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
90.9%
Ahmonte Watkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+9
91.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Ahmonte Watkins for 9 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
90.7%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
91.2%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 5:0996% → 98%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
95.5%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
95.4%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+26
95.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 26 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
95.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+5
95.5%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+5
95.3%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
95.5%
Brock Purdy sacked by Dylan Horton for 0 yards to the TCU 18Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+4
95.5%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
95.4%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+32
98.1%
Andrew Mevis 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15INT
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:203% → 1%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.4%
DUGGAN, Max sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the TCU18 (LEE, Isaiah). PENALTY ISU Roughing the Passer on LEE, Isaiah enforced 15 yards from the TCU25 to the TCU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
97.1%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
97.1%
Max Duggan sacked by Eyioma Uwazurike for 0 yards to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 21
OWN 29
+51
98.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 51 yds to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
97.7%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
97.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 2 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+6
97.9%
Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 2
OPP 12
0
98.7%
Max Duggan pass intercepted, touchback. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
99.8%
Breece Hall run for 80 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:490% → 1%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
99.8%
Max Duggan run for 7 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+4
99.8%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 4 yds to the IowSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.9%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 2 yds to the IowSt 6Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Tyler Guyton for 6 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
99.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 32 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+35
99.8%
Breece Hall run for 35 yds to the TCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.8%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:080% → 0%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Max Duggan sacked by Blake Peterson for 0 yards to the TCU 16Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+2
99.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 2 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+5
99.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 5 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Jordy Sandy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
99.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
50
-5
99.9%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Derek Schweiger) to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
50
+15
99.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 15 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 35 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:320% → 0%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
100.0%
run for 13 yds to the TCU 36 Ahmonte Watkins fumbled, forced by Anthony Johnson Jr., recovered by IowSt Beau Freyler for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Ahmonte Watkins run for no gain to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
99.9%
Ahmonte Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 35Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Max Duggan sacked by Tucker Robertson for 0 yards to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 37 yds, downed at the IowSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
100.0%
Jirehl Brock run for 1 yd to the IowSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:25
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 22 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q2 13:12
Jirehl Brock run for 40 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK)
+6.2
TD · Q2 3:35
Breece Hall run for 39 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK)
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com