Try the model
ISU

Iowa State 38 at Texas Tech 41

TTU
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Jones AT&T Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG-23.1TTU 43.0%Andrew Mevis 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 38 - HOME 38 · Q4 1:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:00 · Andrew Mevis 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Pregame prior−0.6Home team on offense−7.2Score differential−4.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Time remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:16: Donovan Smith pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 18 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) — TTU win probability +22.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:29: Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 12 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK) — ISU win probability +20.9 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 6:20: Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK) — ISU win probability +26.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 1:00: Andrew Mevis 29 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +23.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Jonathan Garibay 62 yd FG GOOD — TTU win probability +33.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:07ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:26TTU 4th & 6 at ISU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    27.4%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:04ISU 4th & 3 at TTU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:36ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:14TTU 4th & 1 at ISU 11, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−3.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−14.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:01ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 19, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:17TTU 4th & 3 at ISU 23, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    85.7%−0.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    78.0%−8.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:19TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 33, up 10
    Close callPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:36TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−4.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:00ISU 4th & 4 at TTU 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−17.1
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−29.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:42TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:15ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:26TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:14TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:16TTU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:11ISU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:03ISU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:29ISU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:51TTU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:20ISU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TTUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:1818% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
18.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 1 yd to the TexTc 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
18.0%
SaRodorick Thompson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
18.0%
IOWA ST Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the TexTc 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+36
18.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 36 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
18.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 12 yds to the IowSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
18.0%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+8
18.0%
Donovan Smith run for 8 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+14
21.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:3579% → 77%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
21.1%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
21.1%
Brock Purdy run for 9 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
21.0%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 37Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
21.0%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
21.0%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
23.4%
Andrew Mevis punt for 50 yds , Adrian Frye returns for no gain to the TexTc 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:1823% → 24%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
23.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the TexTc 16Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 3
OWN 16
0
23.4%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the TexTc 16Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 3
OWN 16
0
24.2%
Donovan Smith pass intercepted return for no gain to the TexTc 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:3477% → 79%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
23.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 15 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.5%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4922% → 27%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
22.4%
Erik Ezukanma run for 32 yds to the IowSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
23.1%
Erik Ezukanma run for no gain to the IowSt 43Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
23.1%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+4
22.8%
Donovan Smith run for 4 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+39
26.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 39 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6INT
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:5974% → 72%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
26.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 7 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-3
26.0%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 43Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+12
26.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 12 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
25.9%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
26.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Darren Wilson Jr. for 6 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+1
26.0%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+9
26.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 9 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
25.4%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
28.1%
Brock Purdy pass intercepted return for no gain to the TexTc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 7TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 8:4631% → 51%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
30.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 6 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+8
31.5%
Donovan Smith run for 8 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
31.7%
Donovan Smith run for 9 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+42
31.9%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 42 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+1
31.4%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
31.9%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+11
31.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 11 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
32.0%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+10
32.0%
Donovan Smith run for 10 yds to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
32.0%
Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+6
32.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+9
31.5%
Donovan Smith run for 9 yds to the IowSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
32.0%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
32.0%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the IowSt 3Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
51.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3851% → 48%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.0%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 25Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
49.2%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 3 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
52.4%
Andrew Mevis punt for 43 yds, downed at the TexTc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 1:2053% → 77%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
53.0%
IOWA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Eyioma Uwazurike) to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
54.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 4 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+18
76.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 18 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0527% → 49%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
72.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
50
-4
71.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 46Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 14
OWN 46
0
74.5%
Brock Purdy sacked by Jaylon Hutchings and Tony Bradford Jr. for 0 yards to the IowSt 42Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 18
OWN 42
+15
74.6%
PURDY, Brock pass up the middle incomplete intended for HUTCHINSON, Xavier thrown to the TTU30. PENALTY TTU Pass Interference on MONROE, Eric enforced 15 yards to the TTU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
71.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 14 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
70.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 6 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+6
70.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 6 yds to the TexTc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
50.8%
Breece Hall run for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:1157% → 69%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
57.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
56.0%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 9 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
61.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jed Castles for 17 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
63.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 20 yds to the IowSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+45
68.8%
Jonathan Garibay 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12INT
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:5034% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
66.2%
PURDY, Brock pass to the right incomplete intended for HUTCHINSON, Xavier thrown to the TTU40. PENALTY TTU Pass Interference on FIELDS, DaMarcus enforced 15 yards to the ISU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
64.9%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 40Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
67.6%
Brock Purdy pass intercepted return for no gain to the TexTc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 69 yds · 4:5669% → 81%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
68.7%
Donovan Smith run for 6 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
68.7%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+51
67.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 51 yds to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
69.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-10
69.7%
BROOKS, Tahj rush to the left for no gain to the ISU17 (FREYLER, Beau). PENALTY TTU Holding on WRIGHT, Weston enforced 10 yards from the ISU17 to the ISU27 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 17
OPP 27
+10
69.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 10 yds to the IowSt 17Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+6
68.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the IowSt 11Similar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
80.6%
Donovan Smith run for no gain to the IowSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1323% → 18%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
76.9%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 9Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+4
78.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 4 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
77.6%
PURDY, Brock pass to the right incomplete intended for NOEL, Jaylin broken up by TAYLOR-DEMERSON, Dadrion at the ISU17. PENALTY TTU Holding on MONROE, Eric ISU Face mask on RALPH, Aidan , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+6
77.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 6 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 2
OWN 19
+39
81.9%
Andrew Mevis punt for 50 yds , Adrian Frye returns for 39 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4485% → 85%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
85.0%
Donovan Smith sacked by Blake Peterson for 0 yards to the IowSt 41Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 21
OPP 41
0
84.6%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 21
OPP 41
+18
84.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 18 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 3
OPP 23
-4
85.3%
Donovan Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:1417% → 35%
Q3 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+21
82.8%
Breece Hall run for 21 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
80.9%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+19
80.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 19 yds to the TexTc 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
80.5%
Brock Purdy run for 2 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 8
OWN 27
+19
82.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 19 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
82.7%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
64.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 9 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4472% → 73%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 3 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
71.7%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the TexTc 29Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
70.7%
Donovan Smith run for 4 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
73.0%
Austin McNamara punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5027% → 50%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
73.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 22 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
70.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 21 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-7
71.1%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 39
+15
73.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 15 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+9
72.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 9 yds to the TexTc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
70.5%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the TexTc 12Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
49.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 12 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3860% → 84%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
60.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 13 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
62.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 21 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
64.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for no gain to the IowSt 41Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
64.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+28
62.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 28 yds to the IowSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
83.6%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3119% → 43%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.0%
Brock Purdy run for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
79.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 7 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
79.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 8 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+8
77.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 8 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
76.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Darren Wilson Jr. for 5 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 5
OPP 42
-10
76.0%
QB Keeper PURDY, Brock rush to the left for no gain to the TTU42 (MONROE, Eric). PENALTY ISU Holding on SIMMONS, Darrell enforced 10 yards from the TTU42 to the ISU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+43
80.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 43 yds to the TexTc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.2%
PURDY, Brock pass to the right incomplete intended for KOLAR, Charlie thrown to the TTU4. PENALTY TTU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on MORGENSTERN, Jacob enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the TTU9 to the TTU4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
83.2%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 9Similar
Q4 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.2%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the TexTc 9Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
83.2%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Xavier Hutchinson) to the TexTc 14Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
57.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4470% → 68%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.6%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 5 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
70.4%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
69.1%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:44
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
69.9%
MCNAMARA, Austin punt 48 yards to the ISU20, fair catch by NOEL, Jaylin. PENALTY Before the snap, TTU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the TTU32 to the TTU27. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
68.4%
Austin McNamara punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22FG
18 plays · 68 yds · 3:3634% → 57%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
65.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 7 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
63.7%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+6
65.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 6 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
64.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Darren Wilson Jr. for 9 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+18
62.7%
Brock Purdy run for 18 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
61.1%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
61.3%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+11
63.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 11 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
57.6%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+4
62.1%
Jirehl Brock run for 4 yds to the TexTc 21Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+3
64.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 3 yds to the TexTc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
62.7%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the TexTc 16Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
62.7%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+4
66.1%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the TexTc 12Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
43.0%
Andrew Mevis 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:0056% → 96%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 9 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
59.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 8 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
60.3%
Donovan Smith run for 4 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+8
61.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 8 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
63.0%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
62.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 2 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+62
95.8%
Jonathan Garibay 62 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Jonathan Garibay 62 yd FG GOOD
+33.4
TD · Q4 6:20
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK)
-26.2
FG · Q4 1:00
Andrew Mevis 29 yd FG GOOD
-23.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com